AROUND the NBA: Pat Bev Suspended 4 Games Next Season| PHX Fires Vogel

[DanSchwartzgan]

But, what I don't see is the source of your confidence that he'll actually GET a role big enough to lead anywhere close to what you're projecting for his season. It wouldn't shock me, but it feels like we're assuming, and the dude has not been able to maintain a consistent hold on a rotation spot for an entire season yet.  

I've posted some version of this several times.  People are all the time saying Josh's game is based on confidence.  If that is true, his confidence is based on minutes.  When he gets them, he's a different player.  So much so that his PER 36 numbers are basically worthless.  Below I have split Josh's PER 36 between games where he played 25 minutes or more vs games he played 25 minutes or less.  I picked 25 because his average minutes in these 33 games comes to 31 minutes...the same as Vassell averaged in his 38 games last season.

                Josh PER 36 w>25 Mins       Josh PER 36 w<25 Mins        
PTS           14.4                                   6.83
FGA           10.1                                   4.8
REB            4.2                                    3.2
AST            2.9                                    1.0
FG%          .551                                  .489
3P%          .418                                  .362

He's not the same guy.  When he gets minutes, he puts up shots at double the rate and is more efficient from the field and from distance.  When he gets under 25 minutes, he's the deer in the headlights that so many anchor their opinions to.  The low minutes version of Josh pollutes both his PER 36 numbers and the impression many of us have of what he is.  Josh doesn't need to leap...he needs to replicate what he already does when he plays 25 minutes or more.  He just needs to get those minutes every night.  14/4/3 on fantastic splits with great D is exactly what we want. 

Vassel's PER 36 numbers are better from a scoring standpoint.  He's 21/4/4 but he shoots worse.  His FG% is .439 compared to .551 for Josh.  His 3% is .387 compared to .418 for Josh.  I know, Josh's shooting benefits from playing with better personnel.  But, if you take that position, you have to also say Vassell would never get the same shot attempts here.  He puts up 18 shots per 36.  But if Josh did get 18 shots instead of 10 at a 1.42 PP Shot Attempt, he would be at 25.6 points per game instead of 21.5 for Vassell.  BTW, 1.42 Points Per Shot Attempt for a 22 year old guard?  Are you kidding me?  

BTW, this improvement with more minutes and more shot attempts between low minute Josh and high minute Josh isn't normal.  Most players actually get less efficient as they put up more shots.  He's a gem sitting right in front of us.  I can't believe more people don't see this.