TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[ItsGoTime]

I don't think we are going to ask him to protect the rim much.  Killer is going to throw up in his mouth a little bit, but I think he is going to play the 4 defensively more often than not (hopefully with Maxi generally at the 5).  I'm hoping he can be an average perimeter/switching defender with proper motivation.  From what I have read, the is little reason to hope that he becomes a good rim protector.

I don’t understand why not. Career numbers between Maxi and Wood they both average the same amount of blocks on the same amount of mpg. With a switchable defense you would want more than 1 shot blocker on the floor for most of the game too because without that the offense just does what Luka does to them, bring the rim protector out and attack him.

[F Gump]

Ok, I was about a mil off to begin with and didn't account for the empty roster charges.

So if we keep everybody (Timmy, Bertans, Green and Frank) and extend Wood and Maxi for 27 I believe that puts us just under the tax.  In that situation can we use the full MLE, or does it have to be the tax MLE because the full would put us over the tax?

The MLE situation at that point is uncertain to predict.

Using the full MLE hard caps you to stay under the apron on your total, which should be about 170M. But how much room you have would depend on how you fill out your whole roster, not just the first 12 for "cap room" budgeting, and the alternatives are all over the lot. The roster management at the margins, up and down the roster, makes a difference in the math.

On its face, rough math with assumptions we have been talking about, "full MLE room" is not looming at the moment. Maybe 1/2 or 2/3. But there would be many many ways to alter that between now and then, and even during free agency. I would expect them to find a way, if they can find the right player to add, and I think adding the right full-MLE players is a good avenue to efficient roster improvement.

[ItsGoTime]

Okay. The basic issue is that's not a realistic picture, because (1) you're doing more than just trading RW, as in the process you also can't do needed moves to keep Wood, Maxi, or Green, and (2) it's good contract numbers but a wrong CAP number since empty roster spots cost you cap room.

PURE MATH -- Exercising the Green option (which we'll know in Oct before the season begins, but I find likely) and accounting for the empty roster slots after a RW trade-and-walk leaves the team with 7 players in the summer and about 30M in cap room. That's less than the lowest max. BUT no cap rights or cap holds on Wood or Kleber, so they will be lost. Bottom line -- You can't still have this 2022-23 team minus just THJ and Bertans (and Powell, of course) and get to the 30M.

REALISTIC NUMBER FOR ROSTER BUILDING -- If (as I think they really need to do) they extend Wood (his max starting salary for an extension is ~17M.2M) and Kleber (his max starting salary for an extension is 10.8M which should be close to the 2023 MLE) during the season before they get to free agency (this prob works best mid-season imo), there's no 30M. You can whittle on my numbers a little, but I think they're in the right ballpark for each, and you have no usable cap room left.

IF THEY TAKE THE CAP ROOM OVER WOOD/MAXI - What's the value of that 30M? It's a free agent class that might not have more attractive pieces available for the Mavs (within that spending limit) than having both Wood and Kleber solving your stretchy big man needs. But if you wait to July and circle back to them, you're now competing with all the other teams and whatever they want to pay - you have no particular advantage. Kinda like Brunson approach --  c'mon, we wanna play this game again? Of course, if Wood and Kleber suck, you aren't extending them, but we're working on the assumption they are useful and needed, and would leave a big hole or two if they walked. You can't get ahead by filling a hole in one place and making one somewhere else to do it.

Ok, I’m going to show my math and please tell me where I’m wrong. I am using salary numbers from Kamm’s spreadsheet (the updated first post of the stickied Roster Talk thread) and Spotrac’s cap hold numbers.


Salary for 23-24 with all cap holds for Wood ($21,476,190), Kleber ($17,527,500), Pinson ($1,974,849) and Frank ($1,855,319) and adding in Green’s salary (on the spreadsheet). I don’t know what to add in for the vet min contracts we fill in for the 4 open roster spots so I’ll just assume we don’t resign them after their 1 year contracts are up. Subtracting THJ and Bertans (and not adding in Powell’s cap hold) salaries who are gone from the trade. The total comes to:

$134,053,637

I don’t think anyone other than the towels he holds will mind if I scratch out Pinson’s hold.

$132,078,788

I’ll assume Frank doesn’t make the necessary steps needed this year either.

$130,223,469

Wood fits pretty well from the start and extends starting at $17M (for easier calculations).

$125,747,279

Maxi signs an extension starting at $7M (again for easy math).

$115,219,779

Subtract that from the projected cap at $133M and get:

$17,780,221

Use that money creatively like the example I used utilizing the 5 picks we now have. Sign the rest of the roster at vet min and each year add a MLE/BAE bench player(s) upgrade and trade out who doesn’t work out but can be traded as an asset, not a negative.

Without using the cap space or trading out any players yet, our depth chart in the offseason looks like:

Luka/Hardy
SD
Bullock/Green
DFS/Kleber
Wood/McGee

Please show me where my math is wrong?

[F Gump]

Where your math is wrong? I dunno. You left out something considerable. I think you're confused over what numbers are included or excluded in various totals being given by others. Just use a calculator and do the math.

I don't want to list all the players and salaries. But you have all the numbers you need.

1 No cap holds for free agents. Just ignore that.
2 Add up the now-existing salaries that you assume would remain. There are 7, I think.
3 Add in projected extensions (2) for Wood-Kleber. I pencil in 27M with 16-17 for Wood, 10-11 for Maxi.
....NOTE - I think your 7M number to extend Maxi has no chance of being a deal. His skill set is a stretchy shot-blocking perimeter-defending 4/5, just the right sort you want to put around Luka, and a raise of some sort is way more likely than a pay cut. If you don't get an extension done, I think someone offers him MLE and you're left a really hard-to-fill hole. The limit on an extension for him, 10.8M, is a just-under-MLE number and imo makes the number easier when you have a cap. If he'll sign for millions less, sure, but I can't imagine that flying.
4 Then add in 1.1 M for each empty slot (3) until you get 12 slots full all together.

When you total it up, the leftover cap room is way less than the MLE.

[IamDougieFresh]

Salary cap is hard. They probably just going to give Dwight another 4 year 40 mil anyways.

[Chicagojk]

I think with a generational talent like Luka you have to approach every year from here on out like you have a shot at the title. Because you do. And because you owe that to Luka, Kidd and the rest of the team. It’s part of what makes the Brunson situation so bad. This season should be marking the beginning of “Operation All-In” and instead it’s another season of “take a step back to take a step forward” pending any upcoming blockbuster trades. I don’t think Westbrook is that. Kyrie for instance puts us in the conversation with the contenders. Still likely a notch below though. I think LA will have to part with one of those juicy future picks to get rid of Westbrook. And they might have other options than our package if that’s the case.

I agree.   Mavs need to go into every season with Luka aiming to be a champion.  There should be no plan to look 2-3 years down the road.   It is what it is now.   For better or worse.

I am not saying they need to make an all in move either...unless it is the right move.   The Mavs have to be absolutely right when they go in with that move.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Ok, I’m going to show my math and please tell me where I’m wrong. I am using salary numbers from Kamm’s spreadsheet (the updated first post of the stickied Roster Talk thread) and Spotrac’s cap hold numbers.

Please show me where my math is wrong?

Good grief, why take us through that convoluted narrative when you can simply post numbers (these come from Spotrac plus the most logical assumptions for Maxi and Wood).  


    Player       Cap Cost
1  Luka          40,064,220
2  THJ  
3  Dinwiddie   21,028,570
4  Bertans  
5  Wood         17,000,000
6  DFS           13,394,160
7  Powell - 
8  Bullock       10,489,600
9  Maxi          10,800,000
10 McGee       5,734,280
11 Green        4,765,339
12 Hardy        1,719,864
13 Hold          1,100,000
14 Hold          1,100,000
15 Hold          1,100,000
 
                     128,296,033

Projected Cap  129,780,000
Cap Space       1,483,967

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Good grief, why take us through that convoluted narrative when you can simply post numbers (these come from Spotrac plus the most logical assumptions for Maxi and Wood).  


    Player       Cap Cost
1  Luka          40,064,220
2  THJ  
3  Dinwiddie   21,028,570
4  Bertans  
5  Wood         17,000,000
6  DFS           13,394,160
7  Powell - 
8  Bullock       10,489,600
9  Maxi          10,800,000
10 McGee       5,734,280
11 Green        4,765,339
12 Hardy        1,719,864
13 Hold          1,100,000
14 Hold          1,100,000
15 Hold          1,100,000
 
                     128,296,033

Projected Cap  129,780,000
Cap Space       1,483,967

Damn, Dinwiddie is getting that much ?  They might as well have paid Brunson.

[mvossman]

Good grief, why take us through that convoluted narrative when you can simply post numbers (these come from Spotrac plus the most logical assumptions for Maxi and Wood).  


    Player       Cap Cost
1  Luka          40,064,220
2  THJ  
3  Dinwiddie   21,028,570
4  Bertans  
5  Wood         17,000,000
6  DFS           13,394,160
7  Powell - 
8  Bullock       10,489,600
9  Maxi          10,800,000
10 McGee       5,734,280
11 Green        4,765,339
12 Hardy        1,719,864
13 Hold          1,100,000
14 Hold          1,100,000
15 Hold          1,100,000
 
                     128,296,033

Projected Cap  129,780,000
Cap Space       1,483,967

I think the projected cap is 133 so thats another 3 mil.  I think he is assuming no Green so that gets you 3.6 (salary - hold).  Then he has Maxi extension at almost 4 less than you do (which I think is unrealistic).  That gets you to almost 12.  Depending on the Maxi extension, you are looking at roughly the MLE.  That is a lot of cutting (Timmy, Bertans, Green, Frank) just to get an MLE you already have.

I get the concept of using cap space to facilitate trades, but I'm not sure 10 mil in cap space is that much better than the trade rules that lets you go over on trades.  You can get creative while over the cap too.

I feel like going this route is definitely a negative and the question is if a protected first is enough compensation.  Personally I think its in the ballpark, but I don't see any way either team does it.

[mvossman]

I don’t understand why not. Career numbers between Maxi and Wood they both average the same amount of blocks on the same amount of mpg. With a switchable defense you would want more than 1 shot blocker on the floor for most of the game too because without that the offense just does what Luka does to them, bring the rim protector out and attack him.

So to clarify, we watched Maxi anchor a defense as the lone big the second half of last season and during the playoffs.  He played that role extremely well given he is a little undersized.  My understanding is that Wood has not demonstrated the ability to effectively anchor a defense as a lone big (although that is where he is most effective offensively).  When you say protect the rim, I am thinking anchor the defense.  I'm sure he can get some blocks while he is out there, but I don't think we want he spending a lot of time as the lone big defensively.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/3444...de-demands

[F Gump]

Salary cap is hard. They probably just going to give Dwight another 4 year 40 mil anyways.

We will forward your recommendation to the Mavs FO, and remind them that Haslem got 20 years, so why shouldn't DP?! Stay tuned.

[omahen]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/3444...de-demands

Finally this is resolved. Now the trade that Mavs have lined up can finally happen

[ItsGoTime]

So to clarify, we watched Maxi anchor a defense as the lone big the second half of last season and during the playoffs.  He played that role extremely well given he is a little undersized.  My understanding is that Wood has not demonstrated the ability to effectively anchor a defense as a lone big (although that is where he is most effective offensively).  When you say protect the rim, I am thinking anchor the defense.  I'm sure he can get some blocks while he is out there, but I don't think we want he spending a lot of time as the lone big defensively.

So, weak side shot blocker is what I think of with both Maxi and Wood, at least what they would/are best at. 

I wouldn’t say Maxi was all that good with rim protection when he was the only one, but weak side? I think he’s deceptively good at that. I would want both he and Wood on the court playing weak side shot blocker while they are in with McGee. When both are in you’re probably right that Maxi anchors while Wood hunts. Then the moments 1 of them is in with neither of the other 2 they will be forced to play anchor. I don’t expect a lot of minutes of that last scenario, it’ll be more of an in game decision.

With Maxi’s age/back issues (or back expiration date) and with McGee’s limited optimal usage, I think Wood will find himself out there by himself much moreso than the other two, as I don’t think Powell will be more than injury insurance. So I expect that that is some of what Nico and Kidd are saying when they say he’s gonna need to prove some stuff to us.

To change the topic now since we’re talking about Maxi. I don’t see why Maxi at age 31 and with the injury issues he has when he is overplayed and the recurring back issues is worth close to MLE money going forward. He has been worth that money, but back issues never get better as a person ages and if you’re not gonna overpay Brunson, I think Maxi is a worse bet that he’ll live up to the contract than JB. If teams ignore that and are willing to pay MLE money for him, I think there would be better uses for that money.

Also, I’m a big fan of Maxi’s, so it’s not sour grapes, just what I believe is a fair assessment of what he’ll bring to the table going forward. First year in the playoffs Maxi hurt his back in the 3rd game and the difference in play was night and day. Second year he hurt his back just before the playoffs and wasn’t very effective throughout. This year he played what I think was an injury free playoffs and he looked really good. Just not sure what we’re gonna get with him year to year.

If MLE money can get us Bullock who can play 40 mpg as a starter in the playoffs, why are we messing around with paying that same money for a guy that can give you 20-25 mpg throughout the season on 3/4 of the games and be hoping that he gets into the playoffs healthy?

[omahen]

Also another thing about the Durant saga. All Nets had to do was threaten through Shams that they might trade him to Memphis, and he immediately decided to stay

[Kammrath]

Finally this is resolved. Now the trade that Mavs have lined up can finally happen

Donovan Mitchell situation is still hanging.

[F Gump]

So, weak side shot blocker is what I think of with both Maxi and Wood, at least what they would/are best at. 

I wouldn’t say Maxi was all that good with rim protection when he was the only one, but weak side? I think he’s deceptively good at that. I would want both he and Wood on the court playing weak side shot blocker while they are in with McGee. When both are in you’re probably right that Maxi anchors while Wood hunts. Then the moments 1 of them is in with neither of the other 2 they will be forced to play anchor. I don’t expect a lot of minutes of that last scenario, it’ll be more of an in game decision.

With Maxi’s age/back issues (or back expiration date) and with McGee’s limited optimal usage, I think Wood will find himself out there by himself much moreso than the other two, as I don’t think Powell will be more than injury insurance. So I expect that that is some of what Nico and Kidd are saying when they say he’s gonna need to prove some stuff to us.

To change the topic now since we’re talking about Maxi. I don’t see why Maxi at age 31 and with the injury issues he has when he is overplayed and the recurring back issues is worth close to MLE money going forward. He has been worth that money, but back issues never get better as a person ages and if you’re not gonna overpay Brunson, I think Maxi is a worse bet that he’ll live up to the contract than JB. If teams ignore that and are willing to pay MLE money for him, I think there would be better uses for that money.

Also, I’m a big fan of Maxi’s, so it’s not sour grapes, just what I believe is a fair assessment of what he’ll bring to the table going forward. First year in the playoffs Maxi hurt his back in the 3rd game and the difference in play was night and day. Second year he hurt his back just before the playoffs and wasn’t very effective throughout. This year he played what I think was an injury free playoffs and he looked really good. Just not sure what we’re gonna get with him year to year.

If MLE money can get us Bullock who can play 40 mpg as a starter in the playoffs, why are we messing around with paying that same money for a guy that can give you 20-25 mpg throughout the season on 3/4 of the games and be hoping that he gets into the playoffs healthy?

1 Player value evaluation rarely works as clean and logically as that, unfortunately.
2 While you point to the limits or issues w Maxi, it's arguable that when he's playing and healthy, he's worth FAR MORE than the MLE.
3 One big overlooked part of the equation is the combo of replacement COST (what will it cost in free agency to get someone as good or better) and replacement AVAILABILITY (this not only has the issue of whether you can find another like him, but also whether you will have the ability within the rules and the negotiating skills to get him). The "bird in the hand" axiom is a really big deal.
.... Your Bullock comment speaks to that. It assumes "oh, we'll just go get another Maxi whenever we want, at the price we want" and that's just not how the NBA works. And, you don't get awarded another MLE to replace Maxi if he walks, and in free agency you're stuck filling the same hole you just made and making no progress. Or going BACKWARD. (See Brunson, J.)

[ItsGoTime]

1 Player value evaluation rarely works as clean and logically as that, unfortunately.
2 While you point to the limits or issues w Maxi, it's arguable that when he's playing and healthy, he's worth FAR MORE than the MLE.
3 One big overlooked part of the equation is the combo of replacement COST (what will it cost in free agency to get someone as good or better) and replacement AVAILABILITY (this not only has the issue of whether you can find another like him, but also whether you will have the ability within the rules and the negotiating skills to get him). The "bird in the hand" axiom is a really big deal.
.... Your Bullock comment speaks to that. It assumes "oh, we'll just go get another Maxi whenever we want, at the price we want" and that's just not how the NBA works. And, you don't get awarded another MLE to replace Maxi if he walks, and in free agency you're stuck filling the same hole you just made and making no progress. Or going BACKWARD. (See Brunson, J.)

So, for sure, replacement cost is an issue, I just don’t think there is as big a market out there for Maxi as you say and anyone who looks into his history is gonna see very easily what I just said. It was reported that he was in the package we offered Atl for Collins and they didn’t bite (I don’t remember the rest of the package being reported and that would be needed to really know how much “value” we thought he had and what with him was not enough for Atl. But I imagine it’s safe to say his name has come up in trade talks one way or the other and nothing had materialized.


For sure when Maxi is on it’s safe to say he’s worth at least the MLE. I just demonstrated that that Maxi is really hit or miss though to the tune of his numbers year to year and playoff to playoff are all over the place. He can look great 1 month then not hit a single 3 the next. I wish his game and body were more reliable than they are, I just can’t say it without feeling like I’m trying to bluff.

In all honesty, as far as replacement value, if we believe a team thinks he’s worth more than MLE money, I would say cash in now on that value cause there is no telling if his back will be Jeckyl or Hyde this coming playoffs.

[mvossman]

So, weak side shot blocker is what I think of with both Maxi and Wood, at least what they would/are best at. 

I wouldn’t say Maxi was all that good with rim protection when he was the only one, but weak side? I think he’s deceptively good at that. I would want both he and Wood on the court playing weak side shot blocker while they are in with McGee. When both are in you’re probably right that Maxi anchors while Wood hunts. Then the moments 1 of them is in with neither of the other 2 they will be forced to play anchor. I don’t expect a lot of minutes of that last scenario, it’ll be more of an in game decision.

With Maxi’s age/back issues (or back expiration date) and with McGee’s limited optimal usage, I think Wood will find himself out there by himself much moreso than the other two, as I don’t think Powell will be more than injury insurance. So I expect that that is some of what Nico and Kidd are saying when they say he’s gonna need to prove some stuff to us.

To change the topic now since we’re talking about Maxi. I don’t see why Maxi at age 31 and with the injury issues he has when he is overplayed and the recurring back issues is worth close to MLE money going forward. He has been worth that money, but back issues never get better as a person ages and if you’re not gonna overpay Brunson, I think Maxi is a worse bet that he’ll live up to the contract than JB. If teams ignore that and are willing to pay MLE money for him, I think there would be better uses for that money.

Also, I’m a big fan of Maxi’s, so it’s not sour grapes, just what I believe is a fair assessment of what he’ll bring to the table going forward. First year in the playoffs Maxi hurt his back in the 3rd game and the difference in play was night and day. Second year he hurt his back just before the playoffs and wasn’t very effective throughout. This year he played what I think was an injury free playoffs and he looked really good. Just not sure what we’re gonna get with him year to year.

If MLE money can get us Bullock who can play 40 mpg as a starter in the playoffs, why are we messing around with paying that same money for a guy that can give you 20-25 mpg throughout the season on 3/4 of the games and be hoping that he gets into the playoffs healthy?

I see the big rotation playing out a little differently than you.  I think when McGee is out there, he will be playing drop coverage and anchor.  There is less reason to have Maxi or Wood out there with McGee defensively, and the McGee/Wood combo is not a great fit offensively.  I see our frontcourt being McGee/Dorian roughly 15-20 minutes a game.  I think Wood and Maxi are a great paring in the front court.  They both can play a switching defense and week side block, Maxi can take on the defensive anchor role while Wood can help make up for Maxi limited rebounding.  On offense Maxi wont be clogging the paint allowing Wood to display his full arsenal.  I'm not saying Wood can't play the Powell role defensively for 5 or 10 minutes a game, but I think every minute he plays with Maxi will be better defensively.

MLE money can't always get us Bullock.  It also got us Powell.  It also got us WCS, Brown and Burke a couple years ago.  I don't think you can count on getting a Bullock every year with the MLE.  I also think Maxi provides particular fit value on this team.  Its not like we are all that off anyways.  You have him at 7, I have him at his current 9, others have him at 11.  That is probably the range of what he will get.

---

Donovan Mitchell situation is still hanging.

I could be wrong, but I interpreted that post as sarcasm.

[ballsrchr]

I see the big rotation playing out a little differently than you.  I think when McGee is out there, he will be playing drop coverage and anchor.  There is less reason to have Maxi or Wood out there with McGee defensively, and the McGee/Wood combo is not a great fit offensively.  I see our frontcourt being McGee/Dorian roughly 15-20 minutes a game.  I think Wood and Maxi are a great paring in the front court.  They both can play a switching defense and week side block, Maxi can take on the defensive anchor role while Wood can help make up for Maxi limited rebounding.  On offense Maxi wont be clogging the paint allowing Wood to display his full arsenal.  I'm not saying Wood can't play the Powell role defensively for 5 or 10 minutes a game, but I think every minute he plays with Maxi will be better defensively.

MLE money can't always get us Bullock.  It also got us Powell.  It also got us WCS, Brown and Burke a couple years ago.  I don't think you can count on getting a Bullock every year with the MLE.  I also think Maxi provides particular fit value on this team.  Its not like we are all that off anyways.  You have him at 7, I have him at his current 9, others have him at 11.  That is probably the range of what he will get.

---

Pretty good assessment.