TDL Archived: The 2nd Rnd Pick Yankee Swap

[ItsGoTime]

you lose some assets you can use creatively later on (as you say you wish for).

All you lose in the trade is Bertans (not an asset at any point in his contract), Powell (expiring salary match only at the deadline) and THJ. Since you started the “what if’s”. What if no one wants Powell at the TDL? What if THJ doesn’t improve from last year, or gets injured again through the playoffs?


The “assets” you seem to think we’re giving up are not worth the FRP (even if protected) that NBA FOs are going crazy for right now.

I will say, there’s no way Cuban signs off on a deal that brings RW here, but to say getting us closer to the cap limit doesn’t give us more options with creativity hasn’t been paying attention to what NBA FOs have been doing lately.

[IamDougieFresh]

We've had this discussed before in this forum. Mavs are about 45M over the cap right now. RW would erase the 11M of Powell that's going away anyhow, plus another 35M. But that lands them near the cap and they end up with the MLE to spend. You can do that anyhow without wasting a season.

I think you're way wrong in not seeing what Luka brings to the table. He can win now. Much needed experience was gained in the 2022 playoffs toward that end. He has most of what he needs already, just not enough playoff-playable pieces (team is too thin).

While not ideal trade chips, the opportunity to increase the value of THJ/DB for trade purposes, while their salary obligations are getting smaller and smaller, is a much better way to move forward than RW (who will be in the way this year, a negative in the playoffs, and gone without compensation in the summer) and that pair also has more potential to pay dividends this year than RW's carcass hogging the ball.

If LA is offering UNPROTECTED picks then I would reconsider. I want more than 1 pick.

Projected salary cap next year is $133 million

According to Hoops Hype our salaries caried into next season total $127,328,422

Get rid of THJ $17,897,728

Get rid of Bertans $17,000,000

Total Space 40,569,306

So instead of telling me "we've talked about it before" how about tell me where the math is wrong. Obviously we will have to pay Wood and Maxi if we want to keep them, but the point is we gain flexibility to elevate our roster to championship level.

[KillerLeft]

If you tell me the plan is to make that trade for purely financial reasons (with draft capital incoming) and then buy Westbrook out of his last year, I might get behind it after some painful soul searching. 

If you tell me the plan is to limp through a year watching Westbrook try to play next to a player who's even more ball dominant than LeBron, I am out. 0% chance that isn't waiving the white flag on the season. It would not work.

[ItsGoTime]

If you tell me the plan is to make that trade for purely financial reasons (with draft capital incoming) and then buy Westbrook out of his last year, I might get behind it after some painful soul searching. 

If you tell me the plan is to try to limp through a year watching Westbrook try to play next to a player who's even more ball dominant than LeBron, I am out. 0% chance that isn't waiving the white flag on the season. It would not work.

Actually, Cuban getting to make sure he doesn’t come close to putting on a Mavs jersey might be the only way he signs off on it.

[ItsGoTime]

Projected salary cap next year is $133 million

According to Hoops Hype our salaries caried into next season total $127,328,422

Get rid of THJ $17,897,728

Get rid of Bertans $17,000,000

Total Space 40,569,306

So instead of telling me "we've talked about it before" how about tell me where the math is wrong. Obviously we will have to pay Wood and Maxi if we want to keep them, but the point is we gain flexibility to elevate our roster to championship level.

Maxi’s cap hold is $17.5M and Wood’s is $21.5M. That’s where the options come in. One way or another, Maxi’s hold is a very easy way to get lots of money. Wood (depending on how he works out) is a much harder decision. I’d prefer max extension for Wood as soon as we know he is a fit. That gives us $4M. Then go to mext offseason and decide on Maxi based on what is best for the team going forward which gives us between $10-17.5M more.

[IamDougieFresh]

If you tell me the plan is to make that trade for purely financial reasons (with draft capital incoming) and then buy Westbrook out of his last year, I might get behind it after some painful soul searching. 

If you tell me the plan is to try to limp through a year watching Westbrook try to play next to a player who's even more ball dominant than LeBron, I am out. 0% chance that isn't waiving the white flag on the season. It would not work.

I would cut his ass as well lol

[IamDougieFresh]

Maxi’s cap hold is $17.5M and Wood’s is $21.5M. That’s where the options come in. One way or another, Maxi’s hold is a very easy way to get lots of money. Wood (depending on how he works out) is a much harder decision. I’d prefer max extension for Wood as soon as we know he is a fit. That gives us $4M. Then go to mext offseason and decide on Maxi based on what is best for the team going forward which gives us between $10-17.5M more.

What are the numbers on Wood's max extension?

[ItsGoTime]

What are the numbers on Wood's max extension?

Starting at $17.5M

[KillerLeft]

I might be in the minority on this, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Wood is going to get his max extension. From anyone.

[ItsGoTime]

I might be in the minority on this, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Wood is going to get his max extension. From anyone.

I’ll tell you this. If he doesn’t help us on defense, I don’t really want him all that much. When I say “fit”, that’s what is going through my mind. I think his offensive game will be really good to great here, but if he can’t protect the rim and move his feet enough to play switchable defense? I’m not going to be very impressed.

[IamDougieFresh]

Wait and judge the fit and then make an offer relative to his value to our team (but don't lowball) . If he doesn't want it then move on.

[F Gump]

Projected salary cap next year is $133 million
According to Hoops Hype our salaries caried into next season total $127,328,422
Get rid of THJ $17,897,728
Get rid of Bertans $17,000,000
Total Space 40,569,306

So instead of telling me "we've talked about it before" how about tell me where the math is wrong. Obviously we will have to pay Wood and Maxi if we want to keep them, but the point is we gain flexibility to elevate our roster to championship level.

Okay. The basic issue is that's not a realistic picture, because (1) you're doing more than just trading RW, as in the process you also can't do needed moves to keep Wood, Maxi, or Green, and (2) it's good contract numbers but a wrong CAP number since empty roster spots cost you cap room.

PURE MATH -- Exercising the Green option (which we'll know in Oct before the season begins, but I find likely) and accounting for the empty roster slots after a RW trade-and-walk leaves the team with 7 players in the summer and about 30M in cap room. That's less than the lowest max. BUT no cap rights or cap holds on Wood or Kleber, so they will be lost. Bottom line -- You can't still have this 2022-23 team minus just THJ and Bertans (and Powell, of course) and get to the 30M.

REALISTIC NUMBER FOR ROSTER BUILDING -- If (as I think they really need to do) they extend Wood (his max starting salary for an extension is ~17M.2M) and Kleber (his max starting salary for an extension is 10.8M which should be close to the 2023 MLE) during the season before they get to free agency (this prob works best mid-season imo), there's no 30M. You can whittle on my numbers a little, but I think they're in the right ballpark for each, and you have no usable cap room left.

IF THEY TAKE THE CAP ROOM OVER WOOD/MAXI - What's the value of that 30M? It's a free agent class that might not have more attractive pieces available for the Mavs (within that spending limit) than having both Wood and Kleber solving your stretchy big man needs. But if you wait to July and circle back to them, you're now competing with all the other teams and whatever they want to pay - you have no particular advantage. Kinda like Brunson approach --  c'mon, we wanna play this game again? Of course, if Wood and Kleber suck, you aren't extending them, but we're working on the assumption they are useful and needed, and would leave a big hole or two if they walked. You can't get ahead by filling a hole in one place and making one somewhere else to do it.

[mvossman]

Maxi’s cap hold is $17.5M and Wood’s is $21.5M. That’s where the options come in. One way or another, Maxi’s hold is a very easy way to get lots of money. Wood (depending on how he works out) is a much harder decision. I’d prefer max extension for Wood as soon as we know he is a fit. That gives us $4M. Then go to mext offseason and decide on Maxi based on what is best for the team going forward which gives us between $10-17.5M more.

Just to be clear, that 127 mil quote does not include the cap holds (or Green).  So we would have the 5 mil in space plus the 37 for Timmy/Bertans.  If we extend Wood and Maxi we are looking at roughly 15 mil available.  Can you get somebody in free agency for 15 mil that is better than Timmy+Bertans+Green?

I still think folks are over valuing cap space and undervaluing being 20+ mil over the cap.  Contracts like Timmy and Bertans are just as valuable trade chips when they are expiring as guys like Bullock or Maxi.  Teams trading away stars don't care about what is coming if its not a young prospect as long as its expiring soon.

Adding the pick to the trade makes me at least think about it, but I'm not sure how valuable it is with the lottery protection.  An unprotected pick and I probably do it.

[F Gump]

I might be in the minority on this, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Wood is going to get his max extension. From anyone.

Perhaps. The limit starts a hair under 17.2M. But once we get a look at his fit and productivity and defense (which Kidd will demand to earn his minutes, I suspect), even if he isn't quite worth the full number, isn't there a number south of that where he offers value to the group, and an extension makes sense to lock him up for several years instead of having to bid for him as a FA? (See Finney-Smith, D.)

[mvossman]

Okay. The basic issue is that's not a realistic picture, because (1) you're doing more than just trading RW, as in the process you also can't do needed moves to keep Wood, Maxi, or Green, and (2) it's good contract numbers but a wrong CAP number since empty roster spots cost you cap room.

PURE MATH -- Exercising the Green option (which we'll know in Oct before the season begins, but I find likely) and accounting for the empty roster slots after a RW trade-and-walk leaves the team with 7 players in the summer and about 30M in cap room. That's less than the lowest max. BUT no cap rights or cap holds on Wood or Kleber, so they will be lost. Bottom line -- You can't still have this 2022-23 team minus just THJ and Bertans (and Powell, of course) and get to the 30M.

REALISTIC NUMBER FOR ROSTER BUILDING -- If (as I think they really need to do) they extend Wood (his max starting salary for an extension is ~17M.2M) and Kleber (his max starting salary for an extension is 10.8M which should be close to the 2023 MLE) during the season before they get to free agency (this prob works best mid-season imo), there's no 30M. You can whittle on my numbers a little, but I think they're in the right ballpark for each, and you have no usable cap room left.

IF THEY TAKE THE CAP ROOM OVER WOOD/MAXI - What's the value of that 30M? It's a free agent class that might not have more attractive pieces available for the Mavs (within that spending limit) than having both Wood and Kleber solving your stretchy big man needs. But if you wait to July and circle back to them, you're now competing with all the other teams and whatever they want to pay - you have no particular advantage. Kinda like Brunson approach --  c'mon, we wanna play this game again? Of course, if Wood and Kleber suck, you aren't extending them, but we're working on the assumption they are useful and needed, and would leave a big hole or two if they walked. You can't get ahead by filling a hole in one place and making one somewhere else to do it.

Assuming we sign one year vet mins to the open roster spots after the trade, then can't you sign free agents into cap first, and then sign vet mins after you used up the cap?  By my calculations if we dump Green and Frank and sign Wood/Maxi to roughly 27 mil in extensions, then we should have roughly 15 mil in space.

[F Gump]

If we extend Wood and Maxi we are looking at roughly 15 mil available. 

No we are not.

Before extending them, there would be about 30M projected cap room. They aren't going to be obtainable for 15M combined, that's not even remotely realistic. I'm thinking a realistic total for the pair would land in the 25-28M range, and that leaves you as an overcap team with a full MLE to spend.

And if you you end up working as an overcap team with a full MLE to spend, you're right where you would otherwise be without an RW trade. Except you don't have the THJ and DB contracts to use as bigger-match parts of a bigger trade (should one arise) in lieu of pieces you see as more desirable to keep. And you don't have the opportunity to make the THJ and DB pieces trade-desirable and even more useful for some swap than just matching filler. And you don't have the potential that one or both of THJ and DB can provide some much-needed playoff minutes at a crucial time, with their skills, especially as shooters to open the floor for Luka.

EDIT - I now see you added another post just above this one, with some slightly different questions on the same line. I have answered those specifics further down the thread. Same numbers, just a different emphasis in the answer because of your different questions.

[mvossman]

I’ll tell you this. If he doesn’t help us on defense, I don’t really want him all that much. When I say “fit”, that’s what is going through my mind. I think his offensive game will be really good to great here, but if he can’t protect the rim and move his feet enough to play switchable defense? I’m not going to be very impressed.

I don't think we are going to ask him to protect the rim much.  Killer is going to throw up in his mouth a little bit, but I think he is going to play the 4 defensively more often than not (hopefully with Maxi generally at the 5).  I'm hoping he can be an average perimeter/switching defender with proper motivation.  From what I have read, the is little reason to hope that he becomes a good rim protector.

[KillerLeft]

Killer is going to throw up in his mouth a little bit, but I think he is going to play the 4 defensively more often than not

All is lost. I am struggling to find the will to Mavs.

[F Gump]

Assuming we sign one year vet mins to the open roster spots after the trade, then can't you sign free agents into cap first, and then sign vet mins after you used up the cap?  By my calculations if we dump Green and Frank and sign Wood/Maxi to roughly 27 mil in extensions, then we should have roughly 15 mil in space.

My numbers above had assumed Green option exercised, but Franky is let go. (Keeping FN rights will cost an extra ~1M over just an empty cap slot, each of which will be about 1.1M. That decision wouldn't need to happen until the season is over and his future desirability is further assessed.)

If I pencil in 27M combined for Wood/Kleber, adjust roster charges for empty slots (4) (now w/o Green or Franky), and no signing rights on anyone: now about $9M. (If the option was exercised on Green, that number was about $5M. If rights are kept for FN too, now it's $4M cap room).

But after assuming Wood/Kleber, all of those other distinctions are academic since it's all less than the big MLE. You would work overcap instead. Instead of only 9M cap room to spend, you jump up to get the 11.3M big MLE and the 6.5M BAE.

[mvossman]

My numbers above had assumed Green option exercised, but Franky is let go. (Keeping FN rights will cost an extra ~1M over just an empty cap slot, each of which will be about 1.1M. That decision wouldn't need to happen until the season is over and his future desirability is further assessed.)

If I pencil in 27M combined for Wood/Kleber, adjust roster charges for empty slots (4) (now w/o Green or Franky), and no signing rights on anyone: now about $9M. (If the option was exercised on Green, that number was about $5M. If rights are kept for FN too, now it's $4M cap room).

But after assuming Wood/Kleber, all of those other distinctions are academic since it's all less than the big MLE. You would work overcap instead. Instead of only 9M cap room to spend, you jump up to get the 11.3M big MLE and the 6.5M BAE.

Ok, I was about a mil off to begin with and didn't account for the empty roster charges.

So if we keep everybody (Timmy, Bertans, Green and Frank) and extend Wood and Maxi for 27 I believe that puts us just under the tax.  In that situation can we use the full MLE, or does it have to be the tax MLE because the full would put us over the tax?