PLAYOFFS WCF: #3 GSW (4-1) vs #4 DAL (1-4)

[Branduil]

On paper, the Suns were by far our worst possible matchup. Not a single one of the teams left really has a big man who scares me in terms of putting up a ton of points. The Warriors could still win for sure, just because of their championship experience and shooting, but we match up with their personnel a whole lot better than Phoenix.

[dirkfansince1998]

One thing that is giving me 2011 vibes are the national media talking heads. Already proclaiming that the Mavs have no chance. Just like in the previous rounds. Just like in every single series in 2011.

[burekemde]

One thing that is giving me 2011 vibes are the national media talking heads. Already proclaiming that the Mavs have no chance. Just like in the previous rounds. Just like in every single series in 2011.

This is like trash talking, it has same result.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/bobbykaralla/status/...2133408768

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/CBAMavs/status/1526200909797085186

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/bobbykaralla/status/...7411061762

[sterlingmallory]

https://twitter.com/CBAMavs/status/1526200909797085186

This is what I'm anticipating. They're going to have to figure out a way to blow up the switch because if they don't then Luka and JB are going to target Curry relentlessly just like they did in the March 3rd game against the Warriors (if I remember correctly, Luka had just finished hunting Lebron the game before only to come in and drop 41/10/9 on Steph the very next game). 

I haven't watched enough of the Warriors this season to really know, how good are guys like Poole, Damion Lee, and post-injury Klay on defense? We just finished destroying Phoenix who had Bridges and Crowder on the wings, can Wiggins and Klay do any better against Luka?

[SleepingHero]

Have to start my look at this series in panic mode because that’s just how we do.   With that in mind, is JB limping?  Very end of this video:

https://twitter.com/dallasmavs/status/1526031908013871105?s=21&t=-IKCkZihZH0HqMely_Em3Q

Give Theo Pinson a max contract for that. 

Also saw JB walking a little gingerly. Hopefully he's 100%.

[Jason Terry]

Best small ball series of all time gsw vs mavs? 

Where are all the big men in the West? They’re all in Cancun 

Who can even guard Luka? This is setting up to expose Steph. There will be constant attacks exploiting his size

Utah Jazz window is shut. Did we shut the window of the CP3/Ayton/Booker Suns? Will we shut the window on the Warriors? 

This team has felt special for awhile now. Will we get Mavs vs Heat Part 3? F d wade

[Chicagojk]

This is what I'm anticipating. They're going to have to figure out a way to blow up the switch because if they don't then Luka and JB are going to target Curry relentlessly just like they did in the March 3rd game against the Warriors (if I remember correctly, Luka had just finished hunting Lebron the game before only to come in and drop 41/10/9 on Steph the very next game). 

I haven't watched enough of the Warriors this season to really know, how good are guys like Poole, Damion Lee, and post-injury Klay on defense? We just finished destroying Phoenix who had Bridges and Crowder on the wings, can Wiggins and Klay do any better against Luka?

Yes, Dallas will need to attack Curry, Poole and Klay off dribble drives.   It should make GS tired and also create open looks for our secondary players.

On the other side of the court, GS is such a tough offense to defend.  When they are at their best the ball movement is elite and beautiful to watch.   You almost got to hope they miss their shots because they get good looks with all the attention Steph receives and Draymond passing.

[Jommybone]

It is so hard to know. How healthy is Klay? How much of a defensive liability is Curry and how much can they hide him on that end of the court? Will the 3 bank close the door on us after being so open for so long? Will Luka continue to be Luka? Can he even—holding my breath—improve? 

Yes, lots of unanswered questions. But my best guess is . . . Mavs in 5. 

Homer alert? Of course. I’m a fan. We’re coming off the biggest shocker (pleasant shocker anyway) in Mavs history. Mondays are made for overreacting. 

Still. 

Here’s how I see it: The Mavs win with versatility. 

Defensive versatility? We’ve been talking about that for ages here. Kleber and Powell, whatever their shortcomings, are among the very most versatile bigs, defensively, in the whole league. Finney-Smith even more so. Bullock guards 1-4 with aplomb. Add Ntilikina’s series-saving contributions, and it’s an impressive, oppressive horde of long, athletic, mobile defenders. Precisely what the doctor ordered to contain the vaunted Warriors’ “death” lineup. 

Offensive versatility? At the midpoint last night, leading 57-27 with nothing but human remains left on the court for the Suns, the Mavs had a total of 4 assists. 19 field goals made. 4 assists. 

That’s not the recipe followed games 3, 4, and 6, in which we tallied 25, 22, and 18 assists respectively. Not drive-and-kick basketball. Not wide-open 3s—or not many—following wicked ball movement. Nothing of the sort.

Instead, it was 5-out isolation—hero ball some call it—with Luka and Spence beating the 1-on-1 defender of their choice off the dribble or step back. I don’t need stats to back this up. You remember it. Your jaw was on the floor alongside mine. 48 first-half points for those 2 fellas on 16/22 shooting (8/13 from deep). 

The usual suspects from deep (Doe-Doe, Reggie, Maxi, Davis, and the rest of the team)? After 24 mins they had shot a pathetic 1/11 from deep, and 3/18 overall. (Jalen in particular was 1/7, 0/2 before going 10/12, 2/2 after intermission.)

Why? How? What???

Versatility. 

The Mavs offense, as I see it, forces opponents to pick their poison. By design. Defend the ball handler, which requires help, or defend the floor spacers parked in their favorite spots at the 3-point line. In games 3-6, the Suns proved themselves incapable of winning with a help-defense scheme. Except for that crazy, ref-aided, 27-4 run in the third quarter of game 5, the Mavs had them whipped. 

The game 7 adjustment? They stopped helping off of the 3-point line. 

Now, if that were a good idea, Coach of the Year Monty Williams probably would’ve started the series that way. And the Jazz probably would’ve figured it out in round 1. 

Think of it this way: Tell your slowest, weakest defender to switch onto Luka, Spencer, or Jalen, and then defend without help. And that’s your defensive game plan. 

Is it really THAT surprising those 3 converted 12/19, 11/15, and 11/19 field goals respectively? Yes, that’s 64% shooting. (1.5 points per shot if I subtracted free throws correctly.) But what would you expect the 3 amigos to shoot against an unaided Bismack Biyombo or vertically challenged Chris Paul? Even for Ayton, that’s simply too much to ask. (Imagine Phil Jackson doing this to Shaq.)

Which brings us to the WCFs and Golden State. What they got, defensively, that Phoenix don’t got? 

Answer: nothing. 

Best argument I can muster is this. Phoenix really couldn’t sit Ayton and play small ball without further alienating their already alienated young star. The Warriors, in contrast, LOVE to go small.

But is small the answer here? How’s small gonna help you defend Luka drives 1-on-1? How’s small gonna help you defend the 3-point line if you’re helping on the drive? Does it even matter there’s no Gobert-like center for Luka to hunt if you’ve got 185 lb Steph Curry or 194 lb Jordan Poole out there? Won’t Luka shoot 12/19 or better against these “too f’n small” dudes too?

I’m guessing small ball is no advantage for the Warriors in this matchup. And I’m guessing the Mavs have grown confident and comfortable enough in what they’re trying to do to continue to do it at the league-leading pace they’ve established. It’s been pretty much the same since the calendar changed 5 months ago, no?

Mavs in 5. NBA finals, here we come!

[MaxiThreeba]

If I were a gambler, I'd bet on the Celtics, but the Heat just seem like our destiny.  Heat/Celtics is going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight war.   

The only downside to playing GSW is that I don't think there is going to be bulletin board material.  Draymond and Steph really respect Luka.

Draymond definitely respects Luka as a basketball savant.  Every series gets chippy though and this one will too.

Green will play the agitator role as best he can in game but I don't think you will see any of the smirks and veiled trash talk off the floor that you did from PHX.  

This will be a serious chess match on the court.  The Mavs have to chase Warriors around screens and battle for the long rebounds all series.  The Warriors have to decide if they will allow Luka to hunt Steph or try and force the ball out of his hands.  The Suns series was huge for JB.  He saw a lot of length and figured out how to play through a tough first couple of games.  He will see length again with Wiggins, Klay and co.  I think he is way more prepared coming into this series than he was coming into the Suns series.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Yeah hopefully we can get Luka matched up against Curry a lot.
I've just been amazed at how ineffective Draymond is on the offensive end in these playoffs. Really bogs everything down for them. They score in spite of him while his defense is so good he actually becomes a positive but man so bad on the offensive side now
Got to figure out some way to exploit that. I want him and Wiggins to be forced to beat us as much as possible.
Which Wiggins will be able to score a decent bit if he's the relief valve guy but I love him as the leading scorer and go-to guy at the end of of these games.
If it works more power to him

The wild cards for the Dubs will be Poole,  Kuminga, PorterJr,  and Iguodala ( If he plays). Don't know what to expect from Wigs. He can make a difference at times.  Kuminga is a stud. He's going to be real good with experience. But I like the Mavs in 6 or 7,  not 5.  GS can go on a heater at anytime and shoot 3's at a much higher clip than Phoenix even though Steph's 3 pt % is down this year.  They also are going to miss GPII. He was their best perimeter defender.

[MFFL]

The key difference to me in this series vs the two previous ones is that the Warriors KNOW how to win. The Jazz were looking for an excuse to implode and so were the Suns.

[cow]

Draymond previews Mavs vs Dubs and continues to show why his post playing career is going to be wildly successful.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOWYQy5CfYc

[Hypermav]

Not possible Draymond, Suns in 9.

He gets weird on the court, but I do like him talking basketball off the court.  I think he is fair.

[cow]

Not possible Draymond, Suns in 9.

He gets weird on the court, but I do like him talking basketball off the court.  I think he is fair.

I love Draymond on the court and I always daydreamed of pairing him with Luka.  They have a pretty awesome bromance anyway.  Love him or hate him on the court, you can't question his thoughtfulness or basketball IQ.  I also love how he usually props others up instead of tearing them down, which is the MO for most popular media.

[Kammrath]

538's RAPTOR prediction has the Mavs with a 73% chance to beat GSW and a 35% chance of winning the title. Crazy.

Mavs are a "pick'em" in each road game against GSW and 7 pt favs at home. 

[windjc]

538's RAPTOR prediction has the Mavs with a 73% chance to beat GSW and a 35% chance of winning the title. Crazy.

Mavs are a "pick'em" in each road game against GSW and 7 pt favs at home. 

Yep. But Vegas still doesn't believe in Luka. They have GSW -5 to -5.5 over Dallas in game one and around 2-1 to win the series.

[Kammrath]

But Vegas still doesn't believe in Luka. They have GSW -5 to -5.5 over Dallas in game one and around 2-1 to win the series.

Vegas doesn't "believe" in anyone....Vegas gauges public opinion and places its line as to encourage the public to bet. Vegas aims for equal bets on both sides of their line.