DRAFT: #18 [Green] & #31 [Terry] & trade for #36 [Tyler Bey]

[KillerLeft]

I think takes probably seem high just because folks try to bolster their side of the argument. 

I think everyone would most likely agree that DFS is a huge success story just because of where he came from (undrafted), has developed a nice catch and shoot 3 pt shot, is great at put backs, is a good defender, a great teammate, has some value because of his chemistry with Luka, and is a 4th or 5th starter level player. None of that is contreversial, is it?

Definitely not, but there's a huge difference between "DFS isn't enough to move up 8 spots, from 18 to 10" and "DFS is worth a first round pick all by himself" or "I think DFS/#18 for #10 is the Mavs getting fleeced because you can't get anyone at #10 who's better than DFS anyway." 

We all agree that he's a winning player. We all agree that he's at a thin, much needed positional group and with a rare combo of size and skills. We all agree that he's on an insanely team friendly and cost controlled contract. These things can be consensus, and are, but the paraphrasing I've done above in the first paragraph is a WIDE range of opinions, value wise.

[Jym]

I'd need a really good reason to trade DFS
Feels weird saying that. I was so down on him going into last season. I thought Jackson would have more of an impact. 
But yeah I'm not trading him just to move up from 18th to around 10th.

[KillerLeft]

I'd need a really good reason to trade DFS
Feels weird saying that. I was so down on him going into last season. I thought Jackson would have more of an impact. 
But yeah I'm not trading him just to move up from 18th to around 10th.

See, @"fifteenth"?

Kamm would do that in a heartbeat.  

Now, part of the equation is that these two smart guys see HAYES differently, but unquestionably DFS valuation plays a part, too. 

Others don't even think you COULD get to #10 with DFS being the outgoing asset (like me, yesterday and every day before). Are you saying that means I don't understand how good DFS is????

IS THAT WHAT YOU ARE SAYING PAL????

[fifteenth]

I'd need a really good reason to trade DFS
Feels weird saying that. I was so down on him going into last season. I thought Jackson would have more of an impact. 
But yeah I'm not trading him just to move up from 18th to around 10th.

See, @"fifteenth"?

Kamm would do that in a heartbeat.  

Now, part of the equation is that these two smart guys see HAYES differently, but unquestionably DFS valuation plays a part, too. 

Others don't even think you COULD get to #10 with DFS being the outgoing asset (like me, yesterday and every day before). Are you saying that means I don't understand how good DFS is????

IS THAT WHAT YOU ARE SAYING PAL????

I, oh see. I didn't really address what you were talking about. Here's how I'll address what you're talking about:

I don't think us amatures have much of an idea of what players and picks are worth in trade value to real NBA teams. AND...NBA teams don't really seem to agree too much on trade value either. Every offseason I see folks maintain "no way that's enough" and "that's way too much", and then trades come through that suprise us in both directions. See MIL and NO.

[Jym]

I'd need a really good reason to trade DFS
Feels weird saying that. I was so down on him going into last season. I thought Jackson would have more of an impact. 
But yeah I'm not trading him just to move up from 18th to around 10th.

See, @"fifteenth"?

Kamm would do that in a heartbeat.  

Now, part of the equation is that these two smart guys see HAYES differently, but unquestionably DFS valuation plays a part, too. 

Others don't even think you COULD get to #10 with DFS being the outgoing asset (like me, yesterday and every day before). Are you saying that means I don't understand how good DFS is????

IS THAT WHAT YOU ARE SAYING PAL????

I'll be honest most trades seem to just confuse the hell out of me nowadays
Always such a wild swing between "How the hell did they pay so little?" and "Why the f did they pay that much?". 
I don't know if it's just me or if GM's have gone insane. I had much more of grip on what could and would happen a decade ago

[KillerLeft]

All of us amatures don't really have any idea what players and picks are worth in trade value to real NBA teams. AND...NBA teams don't really seem to agree too much on trade value. Every offseason I see folks maintain "no way that's enough" and "that's way too much", and then trades come through that suprise us either way.

That's what I'M saying.

[fifteenth]

All of us amatures don't really have any idea what players and picks are worth in trade value to real NBA teams. AND...NBA teams don't really seem to agree too much on trade value. Every offseason I see folks maintain "no way that's enough" and "that's way too much", and then trades come through that suprise us either way.

That's what I'M saying.

Well, I mean, my strategy is to try to say what you're saying so that I can appear smarter than I really am.

[KillerLeft]

Well, I mean, my strategy is to try to say what you're saying so that I can appear smarter than I really am.

Uh oh. Bad news:

That's also MY strategy, only in reverse. I think we just learned that we're echo chambering crap back and forth at one another.

[fifteenth]

Well, I mean, my strategy is to try to say what you're saying so that I can appear smarter than I really am.

Uh oh. Bad news:

That's also MY strategy, only in reverse. I think we just learned that we're echo chambering crap back and forth at one another.

It worked well for Rubio and Nesmith. 

BTW, that combo draft board that the good Mr. Kam posted had Nesmith available at 18.

---

Here's a general thought about free agency...

I'm ok with the tact of staying conservative thinking that at some point Luka is going to attract someone that fits and won't require too much of a mortgage. And it doesn't have even be this season.

You can only take so many payday loans before you gotta start selling stuff that you don't really want to sell. KnowwhatI'msay'n

[Drew]

Agreed. But I’m seeing idiots on twitter saying “same old Mavs, not doing any they like always” and it’s a bit frustrating. The glittery got Luka, Brunson , and KP within 6 months. Then had a solid, if not splashy, FA last year with Delon being the only mistake(and that wasn’t all that bad).

I’m just waiting till at least the weekend before getting antsy.

[Kammrath]

I just don't know how you can be so sure that Hayes is a 'STAR'...he's not Pokusevski or Giannis, who only certiain teams knew enough about to like. He's not even Luka, who some teams were stereotypically skeptical of. In fact, I think the Luka-effect MIGHT be (might) that guys like Hayes and Avdija are getting boosted, slightly. I just feel like if teams thought he'd be a star, more of them would be onto it.  

I like Hayes, don't get me wrong, but it's weird that you like him THIS much, especially since you seem to weight athletic ability and measurables so much more with every other player comp.  Help me understand.

For starters I am CONFIDENT, but definitely not "sure" (nothing is a sure thing in the draft). My confidence comes from just watching his film. 


His weaknesses:
1) He fouls like crazy (a youth thing that with experience will lessen)
2) He turns it over like crazy (a youth thing, coupled with being given the keys to the car before he was truly ready...in DAL he would have the luxury of being brought along slowly as a playmaker)
3) He sucks at spot up shooting (but he shot 88% on free throws this past year which tells me very confidently, he WILL figure it out)
4) He can't use his right hand (a youth thing that with somebody like Shammgod will be remedied over the course of time)


I do not think his athleticism is a weakness. Similar to Luka he has plenty, he just doesn't use it like a lot of American players. But you see it "pop" every once in awhile. 


What I love:
1) There is just something about him that screams "baller" with incredible instincts and feel for the game. A very intuitive playmaker (though he often tries to do too much right now).
2) He shot 86% and 88% in the last two years from the free throw line...the kid can shoot.
3) He has the length to play 1-3.
4) He shows the promise of being a plus defender and legit two way player in the NBA.
5) He will be a three level scorer (threes, midrange, and at the rim).
6) Youth, he just turned 19 and has SO much growth ahead of him. Nothing close to a finished product.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFHKfoiZbcA&

---

P.S. Everyone will remember me pumping Hayes like this....and when he busts in the NBA I am going to get hell for it and no one will trust my evaluations again. I'll have to just convince them it was @"Scott41theMavs" that was pushing him so hard.

---

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/#mock

#18
Everyone around the league believes Oklahoma City will trade up to select “Poku” due to his agent’s connections with Thunder general manager Sam Presti, and the Mavs’ pick has been involved in countless trade discussions, so he’s getting placed here. Pokusevski is young, raw, and lanky but his talent is undeniable. Few players his size bring as much perimeter skill to the court; with the league going in the direction that it is, he could end up being the steal of the draft. Dallas might find good reason to keep Poku, though from a roster standpoint, it probably makes more sense to find serviceable wings.

[burekemde]

I just don't know how you can be so sure that Hayes is a 'STAR'...he's not Pokusevski or Giannis, who only certiain teams knew enough about to like. He's not even Luka, who some teams were stereotypically skeptical of. In fact, I think the Luka-effect MIGHT be (might) that guys like Hayes and Avdija are getting boosted, slightly. I just feel like if teams thought he'd be a star, more of them would be onto it.  

I like Hayes, don't get me wrong, but it's weird that you like him THIS much, especially since you seem to weight athletic ability and measurables so much more with every other player comp.  Help me understand.

For starters I am CONFIDENT, but definitely not "sure" (nothing is a sure thing in the draft). My confidence comes from just watching his film. 


His weaknesses:
1) He fouls like crazy (a youth thing that with experience will lessen)
2) He turns it over like crazy (a youth thing, coupled with being given the keys to the car before he was truly ready...in DAL he would have the luxury of being brought along slowly as a playmaker)
3) He sucks at spot up shooting (but he shot 88% on free throws this past year which tells me very confidently, he WILL figure it out)
4) He can't use his right hand (a youth thing that with somebody like Shammgod will be remedied over the course of time)


I do not think his athleticism is a weakness. Similar to Luka he has plenty, he just doesn't use it like a lot of American players. But you see it "pop" every once in awhile. 


What I love:
1) There is just something about him that screams "baller" with incredible instincts and feel for the game. A very intuitive playmaker (though he often tries to do too much right now).
2) He shot 86% and 88% in the last two years from the free throw line...the kid can shoot.
3) He has the length to play 1-3.
4) He shows the promise of being a plus defender and legit two way player in the NBA.
5) He will be a three level scorer (threes, midrange, and at the rim).
6) Youth, he just turned 19 and has SO much growth ahead of him. Nothing close to a finished product.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QFHKfoiZbcA&

---

P.S. Everyone will remember me pumping Hayes like this....and when he busts in the NBA I am going to get hell for it and no one will trust my evaluations again. I'll have to just convince them it was @"Scott41theMavs" that was pushing him so hard.

---

https://nbadraft.theringer.com/#mock

#18
Everyone around the league believes Oklahoma City will trade up to select “Poku” due to his agent’s connections with Thunder general manager Sam Presti, and the Mavs’ pick has been involved in countless trade discussions, so he’s getting placed here. Pokusevski is young, raw, and lanky but his talent is undeniable. Few players his size bring as much perimeter skill to the court; with the league going in the direction that it is, he could end up being the steal of the draft. Dallas might find good reason to keep Poku, though from a roster standpoint, it probably makes more sense to find serviceable wings.

Great breakdown of strenghts and weaknesses with Hayes. I would like to add for the highlights of him I watched, that he does not seem to be afraid of the moment. He comes up and is not afraid of the clutch moments. I think this is an underrated skill that might tell how competitive a player is, the desire and need to win. How afraid he is, or how less afraid he is to take responsibility. When you see a young player take the responsibility of the entire team whether you win or lose, playing with men far older than him, this is something special.

I love to see this, even if they dont make the clutch basket. If they show they can take the resposibility, and fail, and still not be afraid to do it once again next time, this shows courage. Also to see the older players give him the responsibility, is also special. They are around him every day, this again shows this is a special player.

You have to look for special things in the game. What I also like is how he adjusts to the moment. When he gets well defended, he finds a way to score, different ways. He has far more than a single trick.

In NBA, every player will need to adjust a lot, really a lot. There are very few exceptions, such as Lebron or Shaq, but pretty much 99% of all new players will need to adjust their game because the level they will meet, most of their current tricks and skills will not work as well, or perhaps not even work at all. This bending of ones game and how they adapt to different situations, is something critical to their success, and hard to judge. Hayes just comes across as someone to me, as someone highly competitive that will be able to adjust the game, learn, do what it takes to win. Multiple skills and as kammrath points weaknesses that can be improved upon. The key skill he has is the feel for the game. This can never be thought. You see this when he gets in the paint, he has the feel for how to take advantage of the defenders and their movements, he adapts his game and flow. He is definitely not a Luka type of talent, and not as much magic in his game, but he does have a special feeling for the game and I think he does warrant a high pick in the draft. I also think he is actually athletic in the way he plays, he gets separation well enough.

[Kammrath]

Great breakdown of strenghts and weaknesses with Hayes. I would like to add for the highlights of him I watched, that he does not seem to be afraid of the moment. He comes up and is not afraid of the clutch moments. I think this is an underrated skill that might tell how competitive a player is, the desire and need to win. How afraid he is, or how less afraid he is to take responsibility. When you see a young player take the responsibility of the entire team whether you win or lose, playing with men far older than him, this is something special.

I love to see this, even if they dont make the clutch basket. If they show they can take the resposibility, and fail, and still not be afraid to do it once again next time, this shows courage. Also to see the older players give him the responsibility, is also special. They are around him every day, this again shows this is a special player.

You have to look for special things in the game. What I also like is how he adjusts to the moment. When he gets well defended, he finds a way to score, different ways. He has far more than a single trick.

In NBA, every player will need to adjust a lot, really a lot. There are very few exceptions, such as Lebron or Shaq, but pretty much 99% of all new players will need to adjust their game because the level they will meet, most of their current tricks and skills will not work as well, or perhaps not even work at all. This bending of ones game and how they adapt to different situations, is something critical to their success, and hard to judge. Hayes just comes across as someone to me, as someone highly competitive that will be able to adjust the game, learn, do what it takes to win. Multiple skills and as kammrath points weaknesses that can be improved upon. The key skill he has is the feel for the game. This can never be thought. You see this when he gets in the paint, he has the feel for how to take advantage of the defenders and their movements, he adapts his game and flow. He is definitely not a Luka type of talent, and not as much magic in his game, but he does have a special feeling for the game and I think he does warrant a high pick in the draft. I also think he is actually athletic in the way he plays, he gets separation well enough.

[cow]

Posted this in the other thread. Let's say we are on the clock and New York calls. Any interest in giving up 18 to reclaim '21 or '23?

[Scott41theMavs]

Posted this in the other thread. Let's say we are on the clock and New York calls. Any interest in giving up 18 to reclaim '21 or '23?

Yes, '21, because it's supposed to be a stronger draft.

I say that, but of course the Mavs would just trade away that pick anyway.

In short, I would do that as the Mavs' GM, but knowing them, I would be extremely upset if they did it.

[Kammrath]

Let's say we are on the clock and New York calls.  Any interest in giving up 18 to reclaim '21 or '23?

For me it would be depend on who is still on the board. But if all my guys are gone, I might be open to getting '21 back.....but I haven't done enough scouting on '21 to know if the back end of the first round is actually as strong as this one ('21 is MUCH better up top, but don't know its depth).

[cow]

Let's say we are on the clock and New York calls.  Any interest in giving up 18 to reclaim '21 or '23?

For me it would be depend on who is still on the board. But if all my guys are gone, I might be open to getting '21 back.....but I haven't done enough scouting on '21 to know if the back end of the first round is actually as strong as this one ('21 is MUCH better up top, but don't know its depth).

I was thinking more about trade flexibility and I'd probably do it no matter what unless someone from the top of the draft has a free fall.

[aguiar95]

Posted this in the other thread.  Let's say we are on the clock and New York calls.  Any interest in giving up 18 to reclaim '21 or '23?

I'd do it in a heartbeat. If we get back the '23 1st, we can trade 4FRP (20, 23, 25, 27) and 3 swaps (22, 24, 26). Since the '21 is unprotected, it's unlikely they would go for that.

[cjeter24]

Posted this in the other thread.  Let's say we are on the clock and New York calls.  Any interest in giving up 18 to reclaim '21 or '23?

I'd do it in a heartbeat. If we get back the '23 1st, we can trade 4FRP (20, 23, 25, 27) and 3 swaps (22, 24, 26). Since the '21 is unprotected, it's unlikely they would go for that.

Yeah it'd have to be 2023. 
That year is protected 1-10... So it actually would make some sense that NYK hedges their bets and gets a middle 1st rounder. 

2023 is also most optimal to the Mavs since they have full flexibility again after next year.

[Davevoid]

FWIW, the Ringer's Kevin O'Connor - who's quite connected around the league - has Hayes rated as the top prospect. So he'll be the fifth pick at least, propably even higher.

I mean, the T'Wolves and Hornets are pretty bad at this whole draft thing, but I can see the Warriors taking him at #2.

Yeah, we're all up on that. We've talked about all of this for weeks and weeks. @"Kammrath" does a great job of keeping this thread packed with all the info you could ever want on most of the prospects, not just his favorites. We've had access to hours of film on the guys, too. 

---

Hehe, I should've figured that!
It's just that I haven't had time this year to get into the draft, at all, so I'm going to be happy with whomever the Mavs will pick. 

Kinda like a blank piece of paper...