MAVS 132, BLAZERS 117

[mavsluvr]

MAVS WIN CLASH OF THE COVID TEAMS

The shorthanded Mavs enter the second game of their road trip facing a Blazers team that is similarly decimated. The Mavericks’ absences include Luka, THJ, Bullock, Maxi, McLaughlin and Burke for COVID protocols, and Willie for personal reasons. The Blazers have seven players out. Dame and KP will serve as the stars on the floor. 

The Mavs took off in the second quarter and never looked back. 


GAME NOTES

Starting lineup.   Brunson-Frankie-DFS-KP-Powell

FIRST QUARTER

It’s the big man show for the Mavs, with KP and Powell combining for 10 of the team’s 13 points. Mavs are 2-9 from three for the first five minutes. 

13-8 6:58

Powell looking pretty good tonight, adding a dug-out loose ball for his second and-one to a previous three. —  DP adds an alley-oop from JB! Oops, he has to leave now, with two fouls called. — Green comes in, and gets an and-one right off the bat. Mo comes in and is called for two quick fouls. He stays on the floor. —- DFS, Green, and three ten-days are on the floor for Dallas. Woof. Powell leads all scorers with 11 points. 

34-29 after one

The three big guys have 19 of the Mavs’ 34 points. Dallas leads the jump-shooting Blazers 16-2 in PIP. 

SECOND QUARTER

Portland making a little push here. 

41-39  8:33

Portland is very fast in transition. They tie the game off a Mavs turnover. — KP grins after hitting his third three of the period. This is a choppy affair — a combined 21 FTAs already. 

47-41  7:23

KP makes it 20 points in the first 18 minutes. Woo-hoo! This Portland “C” team is a sucker-oo. Mavs dominating, with a 17-1 run. 

58-42  4:41

Mavs are blowing the doors off the gym now, with their highest-scoring half in recent memory. Woot!

72-53  HT

THIRD QUARTER

Mavs still running away with this one. 

106-84 after three

FOURTH QUARTER

Mavs cruise to a W. 

132-117  FT


OBSERVATIONS

Nice to get a win on the board, even if it is only an asterisked game — it counts the same as any other. Since a contest like this is unlikely to be replicated by either team, once the regular players get back on the court and the emergency guys fade back into the woodwork, I don’t see much point in prying open the jaws of this gift horse. We might as well just declare that the Mavs were due, and sit back and savor the victory. 


NEXT. The Mavs will face Sacramento on the hump game of their road trip. Reggie Bullock is expected to return for that one. Anything could happen! 

[dirkfansince1998]

The three big guys have 19 of the Mavs’ 34 points. Dallas leads the jump-shooting Blazers 16-2 in PIP. 

Apparently the Mavs can score in the paint when the opposing team has no bigs. 68-30 PITP for the game. Overall the Mavs still rank last in the league for the season.
Really shows how successful penetration and rim running/pick & roll open up the offense. Forcing the defense to rotate. Moving the ball around vs a scrambling defense. Making the extra pass for a great shot instead of taking a semi-open one.
That´s when a guy like Green that really knows how to move the ball is at his best. Making the extra pass. Taking advantage of a scrambling defense. Cannot expect him to do the same against a better half court defense or of the dribble but just like Frank he makes good decisions within the flow of the offense.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Some thoughts...

This was the second fewest shot attempts (12) from Brunson as a starter.  The game with fewer was a low minutes blowout of Charlotte.  You can kind of see the team giving him periods of "rest" where he's on the floor, but the O is run through other guards.  That way, when Brunson is really needed, he can "take over".  Unfortunately, "taking over" is a relative term.  He can't take great defenders (like Jrue Holiday) nor can he beat double teams the way Luka can.  So, as many have said, high floor, but limited ceiling.  Nothing wrong with that BTW.  Here's my question...The teams with money this summer that also need a PG are bad teams.  Pretend you are his dad and you know from experience he can go to one of those teams for $17mm/year and be overpaid/overmatched 82 nights a year (and not very successful) or take $12mm-$14mm here and be "the little engine that could".  What would you advise?

Can we have this version of KP and last year's Luka?  Most fully dialed in game of the year from KP.  There was a post yesterday showing him as a near-all star based on LEBRON or EPM (can't recall which).  That is all fine and good, but the overriding question is can he do that alongside Luka and can Luka be LUKA alongside KP?  Until we figure that out, nothing else really matters.

Powell has had his best two  +/- games the last two games at +18 and +22 last night.  He's been positive 8 of the last 11 games.  Are he and KP figuring some things out, or is this a product of Luka missing 8 of those games (and THJ being out or demoted)?  His TS% in December is a Powell-like .760.  He's hit 40% of his threes in October, November and so far in December.  What would we be saying if he did all of this with his identity hidden.  In other words, if we didn't know he was Dwight Powell

Brandon Knight was Kidd's starting PG his first year in Milwaukee before he was traded to Phoenix.  The return was MCW, Tyler Ennis, Miles Plumlee and a protected 2015 first.  Milwaukee was seven games over .500 at the time of the deal with Knight leading the team in points (17.8) and assists (5.4) and adding 4.3 boards and 1.6 steals while hitting 40.9% from three.  All else being equal, do you keep Knight or Burke?

Nothing brings me to the edge of my chair like a great play from Josh Green.  He was the first guy off the bench in both halves last night and they even ran a little action for him a couple times down the court.  Kidd is doing a nice job bringing him along slowly.  In the seven games he's gotten 10 minutes or more, the team is +15, +13, +6, +10, +9, -7 and +11.  His top 10 four man lineups are all net positive (8 of those are double digit positive).  His top 15 2-man lineups are all positive, but the 16th most used lineup is not positive.  Green has played a total of nine minutes with Luka this season over three games at a -47.  How strange.  Unfortunately, when THJ and Bullock return, the minutes dry up unless we sit someone.  I'd like to continue to explore what we have with Frank also, but there are only so many minutes at the 2/3 and DFS and Brunson eat up some of those minutes also. Something has to give as I believe continuing to develop Green is very important.

[Omega_Supreme]

Some thoughts...

This was the second fewest shot attempts (12) from Brunson as a starter.  The game with fewer was a low minutes blowout of Charlotte.  You can kind of see the team giving him periods of "rest" where he's on the floor, but the O is run through other guards.  That way, when Brunson is really needed, he can "take over".  Unfortunately, "taking over" is a relative term.  He can't take great defenders (like Jrue Holiday) nor can he beat double teams the way Luka can.  So, as many have said, high floor, but limited ceiling.  Nothing wrong with that BTW.  Here's my question...The teams with money this summer that also need a PG are bad teams.  Pretend you are his dad and you know from experience he can go to one of those teams for $17mm/year and be overpaid/overmatched 82 nights a year (and not very successful) or take $12mm-$14mm here and be "the little engine that could".  What would you advise?

Can we have this version of KP and last year's Luka?  Most fully dialed in game of the year from KP.  There was a post yesterday showing him as a near-all star based on LEBRON or EPM (can't recall which).  That is all fine and good, but the overriding question is can he do that alongside Luka and can Luka be LUKA alongside KP?  Until we figure that out, nothing else really matters.

Powell has had his best two  +/- games the last two games at +18 and +22 last night.  He's been positive 8 of the last 11 games.  Are he and KP figuring some things out, or is this a product of Luka missing 8 of those games (and THJ being out or demoted)?  His TS% in December is a Powell-like .760.  He's hit 40% of his threes in October, November and so far in December.  What would we be saying if he did all of this with his identity hidden.  In other words, if we didn't know he was Dwight Powell

Brandon Knight was Kidd's starting PG his first year in Milwaukee before he was traded to Phoenix.  The return was MCW, Tyler Ennis, Miles Plumlee and a protected 2015 first.  Milwaukee was seven games over .500 at the time of the deal with Knight leading the team in points (17.8) and assists (5.4) and adding 4.3 boards and 1.6 steals while hitting 40.9% from three.  All else being equal, do you keep Knight or Burke?

Nothing brings me to the edge of my chair like a great play from Josh Green.  He was the first guy off the bench in both halves last night and they even ran a little action for him a couple times down the court.  Kidd is doing a nice job bringing him along slowly.  In the seven games he's gotten 10 minutes or more, the team is +15, +13, +6, +10, +9, -7 and +11.  His top 10 four man lineups are all net positive (8 of those are double digit positive).  His top 15 2-man lineups are all positive, but the 16th most used lineup is not positive.  Green has played a total of nine minutes with Luka this season over three games at a -47.  How strange.  Unfortunately, when THJ and Bullock return, the minutes dry up unless we sit someone.  I'd like to continue to explore what we have with Frank also, but there are only so many minutes at the 2/3 and DFS and Brunson eat up some of those minutes also. Something has to give as I believe continuing to develop Green is very important.

Although I agree with most of this, I do not think we are saying Brunson is an allstar. If there is someone else on the court that can occupy the best perimeter defender then the floor opens up for Brunson. There are some guys that slow Luka down as well so I don't think that is indicative of Brunson being limited as a player. I have seen Brunson cook some good defenders as well, ask the Spurs.

[Mavs2021]

Some thoughts...

This was the second fewest shot attempts (12) from Brunson as a starter.  The game with fewer was a low minutes blowout of Charlotte.  You can kind of see the team giving him periods of "rest" where he's on the floor, but the O is run through other guards.  That way, when Brunson is really needed, he can "take over".  Unfortunately, "taking over" is a relative term.  He can't take great defenders (like Jrue Holiday) nor can he beat double teams the way Luka can.  So, as many have said, high floor, but limited ceiling.  Nothing wrong with that BTW.  Here's my question...The teams with money this summer that also need a PG are bad teams.  Pretend you are his dad and you know from experience he can go to one of those teams for $17mm/year and be overpaid/overmatched 82 nights a year (and not very successful) or take $12mm-$14mm here and be "the little engine that could".  What would you advise?

I advice to get rid of some of THJ, Bullock, Powell, WCS, Kleber, Burke or Boban instead. That´s an insane amount of salary, roughly 60M for guys that are all inferior to Brunson. Just give Brunson his $17M/year. Then it only becomes a question of whether Brunson is satisified with being the 2nd or 3rd best guard on the team, possibly the 6th man of the year or if he wants more.

Brunson is a 25 year old UFA. Right now he´s averaging 16/6/4. That´s right in the ball park of guys like N. Powell, Trent Jr., Rozier or Lavert. 17M seems a fair number for him. It´s not cheap, but we are paying THJ more for 15/2/4, so it´s very simple. You talk to Brunson´s agent right now. Lay out the plan/usage, lay out the contract and say you want to extend your deal or not. He says YES, you work the trade market for THJ. He says NO, you work the trade market for Brunson.

I´m pretty confident you can get Gary Harris or Jeremy Lamb for THJ with the old Mavs connections and those teams lack of FA options. Those are also two players that will probably be re-signed for less than the MLE next summer, so you actually get to keep them, but they are no threat for Brunson´s status.

[hakeemfaan]

To me a 3rd star is someone who has obvious deficiencies but is either a defensive stud or can create his own shot and can carry the team for a few games where the 2 top stars are out. JB certainly fits that bill. 

A 2md tier star is someone who can carry the team for quarters even when the main star is there and someone who can carry the team for 25 to 45 games when the main star is not there. KP despite what he did yesterday does not meet these requirements. Plus he is paid like a top tier star. 

Luka is obviously a top tier star but he needs to change his style. The ball moving better without him is a damning indictment of flaws that have crept into his game. I don’t want to hear about assists when Westbrook has averaged a triple double. Take over the game for stretches but don’t hog the ball like a Westbrook.  I disagree with mavsluvr and some others who recently said that he can’t play like Jokic. He absolutely can.  Luka has vision and sees plays develop before they happen. Westbrook doesn’t. Sure some things that Jokic can do do due to his height Luka can’t but the pass from one side of the court to the opposite side and the handles, Jokic can’t compete there with Luka.  

To me at this point while I would certainly understand if JB gets an offer that the Mavs might consider too pricey, IMO he can be part of a big3. KP no. Plus he gets hurt every time you start thinking you might have been wrong about him.

[cow]

Can we have this version of KP and last year's Luka?  

If we can play undersized teams who don't play with a lot of physicality every game, sure.  Credit were credit is due, KP was great last night.  So was Green.  So was Powell.  Let's see them all continue to do this when the team is at full strength.  

On the whole, we've been playing a better brand of basketball with the team decimated.  Kidd has his work cut out for him once everyone is back.  Hopefully he can figure out why and keep the forward progress going.

[mvossman]

I advice to get rid of some of THJ, Bullock, Powell, WCS, Kleber, Burke or Boban instead. That´s an insane amount of salary, roughly 60M for guys that are all inferior to Brunson. Just give Brunson his $17M/year. Then it only becomes a question of whether Brunson is satisified with being the 2nd or 3rd best guard on the team, possibly the 6th man of the year or if he wants more.

Brunson is a 25 year old UFA. Right now he´s averaging 16/6/4. That´s right in the ball park of guys like N. Powell, Trent Jr., Rozier or Lavert. 17M seems a fair number for him. It´s not cheap, but we are paying THJ more for 15/2/4, so it´s very simple. You talk to Brunson´s agent right now. Lay out the plan/usage, lay out the contract and say you want to extend your deal or not. He says YES, you work the trade market for THJ. He says NO, you work the trade market for Brunson.

I´m pretty confident you can get Gary Harris or Jeremy Lamb for THJ with the old Mavs connections and those teams lack of FA options. Those are also two players that will probably be re-signed for less than the MLE next summer, so you actually get to keep them, but they are no threat for Brunson´s status.

I'm not sure that having multiple bad contracts that need to be dumped (Maxi does not belong on this list) is a great argument for signing Brunson to 17.  The right answer might be to let all of them go (eventually).  

Lets say you can get Brunson/agent to agree to end of season contract prior to TDL (I am skeptical), then the question is do you want Brunson as sixth man at 17, or whatever you can get in a trade?  What if you can get Mavs 23 pick for him?  Which would you rather have?

[ItsGoTime]

Would love someone to take KP, THJ and Powell in a trade that nets us Turner (or someone close like Holmes) and a good defensive ball handler like Brogdon or White (SA not CHI).

[cow]

Would love someone to take KP, THJ and Powell in a trade that nets us Turner (or someone close like Holmes) and a good defensive ball handler like Brogdon or White (SA not CHI).

For that much salary, the only one I could see taking that on would be the Lakers.  I can't get you the Turner comp, but I can get you the defensive ball handler...and Westbrook...

[mavsluvr]

Apparently the Mavs can score in the paint when the opposing team has no bigs. 68-30 PITP for the game. Overall the Mavs still rank last in the league for the season.
Really shows how successful penetration and rim running/pick & roll open up the offense. Forcing the defense to rotate. Moving the ball around vs a scrambling defense. Making the extra pass for a great shot instead of taking a semi-open one.
That´s when a guy like Green that really knows how to move the ball is at his best. Making the extra pass. Taking advantage of a scrambling defense. Cannot expect him to do the same against a better half court defense or of the dribble but just like Frank he makes good decisions within the flow of the offense.

Good comments, as usual. 

I hate to risk being "that guy" after a win, but I also agree with your implicit statement that it's a lot easier to penetrate, conduct pick and rolls, move the ball around, and make the extra pass against a team that offers no resistance than against a "normal" NBA defense. I think your description of Portland's D as "scrambling" is accurate, but also kind. Watching the game, I found it shockingly halfhearted and disengaged, and it really made me ponder the situation in Portland. 

But, back to your points, Tim Cato had a few comments on Green this morning in his Athletic article. 

--  Green looked like a legitimate NBA rotation-level player, maybe for the first time ever. 

--  A mixed bag on the court. He made brilliant passes, and had 10 dimes. But also got caught in the air shooting hopeless floaters and dribbled himself into fadeaway jumpers. 

-- Took advantage of the opportunity to showcase his passing skills against a brutal Portland defense.

[mvossman]

Would love someone to take KP, THJ and Powell in a trade that nets us Turner (or someone close like Holmes) and a good defensive ball handler like Brogdon or White (SA not CHI).

Wouldn't we all.  To bad our guys don't have any trade value, and the guys you want to trade for do.

[Mavs2021]

I'm not sure that having multiple bad contracts that need to be dumped (Maxi does not belong on this list) is a great argument for signing Brunson to 17.  The right answer might be to let all of them go (eventually).  

Lets say you can get Brunson/agent to agree to end of season contract prior to TDL (I am skeptical), then the question is do you want Brunson as sixth man at 17, or whatever you can get in a trade?  What if you can get Mavs 23 pick for him?  Which would you rather have?

I´d keep Brunson at $17M. I´d say that is market value for a player of his quality. Also at age 25 there is still room for improvement. I´m sure if you look at JET´s salary as a percentage of the cap, it´s probably exactly in that price range.

Let the new MBT show me that they don´t suck at drafting/using draft picks as assets, before we give up on a proven commodity like Brunson. Of course it all depends on what Brunson wants. If he does not want to commit, then trade him.

To expand on the Green/Ntilikina conversation. Maybe Green and Ntilikina will get there eventually, but what they are showing is that 3&D is not the answer.  It´s so obvious that THJ/Bullock/Powell are all too one-dimensional to play at the same time, especially if the 4th guy is DFS/Porzingis who are not great creators either. It´s probably easier nowadays to find a guy that can make an open three than a guy that can create for himself and others.

All due respect to Brown and Powell, you probably see every game that this position can also be upgraded. Powell has a lot of skills around the basket , but zero physical presence. Brown has all the physical tools, but not the skills. Jarrett Allen would have been perfect for this. Mo Bamba should be a target and so should Mark Williams in the draft. Imagine you pay WCS/Powell/Boban/Brown $20M. Pretty sure you can get Mo Bamba and mark Williams for that money for the next four years.

[KillerLeft]

Pretend you are his dad and you know from experience he can go to one of those teams for $17mm/year and be overpaid/overmatched 82 nights a year (and not very successful) or take $12mm-$14mm here and be "the little engine that could".  What would you advise?

Great post. 

The reality, in my honest opinion, is that 100% of people, including all of us, would take the higher monetary offer. The difference in your example is like $20 million over the life of the contract, if I'm understanding you. That's what he will choose. The $20 million. It's easy for us to think of these guys' lives as abstractions, but basketball is their occupation and their dreams are about compensation and quality of life more than anything else.

[mavsluvr]

Powell has had his best two  +/- games the last two games at +18 and +22 last night.  He's been positive 8 of the last 11 games.  Are he and KP figuring some things out, or is this a product of Luka missing 8 of those games (and THJ being out or demoted)?  His TS% in December is a Powell-like .760.  He's hit 40% of his threes in October, November and so far in December.  What would we be saying if he did all of this with his identity hidden.  In other words, if we didn't know he was Dwight Powell

Dan's long post above contains so many good points that I won't try to respond to all of them at once.


I think there is a lot of wisdom in the bolded sentence. We get so wrapped up in narratives about particular players that we can tend to see everything in terms of those stories.  

Iztok had a couple of comments on Powell this morning  -- 




https://twitter.com/iztok_franko/status/...98308?s=20

[mvossman]

Great post. 

The reality, in my honest opinion, is that 100% of people, including all of us, would take the higher monetary offer. The difference in your example is like $20 million over the life of the contract, if I'm understanding you. That's what he will choose. The $20 million. It's easy for us to think of these guys' lives as abstractions, but basketball is their occupation and their dreams are about compensation and quality of life more than anything else.

Not to mention I doubt Brunson looks at it like he will be overmatched in a starting role.  Seems like the kind of guy that would relish that kind of opportunity rather than shy away from it.

[cow]

Great post. 

The reality, in my honest opinion, is that 100% of people, including all of us, would take the higher monetary offer. The difference in your example is like $20 million over the life of the contract, if I'm understanding you. That's what he will choose. The $20 million. It's easy for us to think of these guys' lives as abstractions, but basketball is their occupation and their dreams are about compensation and quality of life more than anything else.

His dad is a professional athlete so he should advise him to take the money 100 out of 100 times.  Injuries happen and this could be his last contract.

[sefant]

On Frank/Josh Green.

At what point its not coincidence anymore that the team plays much better with them on the floor than without them?


18.8 pts better when Josh Green is on the floor? Those are lowkey superstar numbers. Frank +11.1

Frank, Josh Green and Brunson are your top 3 Maverick in RAPTOR.

Frank is 10th in Defensive RAPTOR. Josh Green 15th. Those guys have to play. And not just 15 min per night or even less. If you consider upside its a no brainer.




https://www.reddit.com/r/Mavericks/comme..._class_in/

This was 11 days ago. Before JG was out with Covid pretty much.

[fifteenth]

I admit that I'm not normal. But I wouldn't make my decision based on the money. Money would be in the equation, but so would other things. I'd be looking for a personal bet it that considered all parameters.

[fifteenth]

On Frank/Josh Green.

At what point its not coincidence anymore that the team plays much better with them on the floor than without them?


18.8 pts better when Josh Green is on the floor? Those are lowkey superstar numbers. Frank +11.1

Frank, Josh Green and Brunson are your top 3 Maverick in RAPTOR.

Frank is 10th in Defensive RAPTOR. Josh Green 15th. Those guys have to play. And not just 15 min per night or even less. If you consider upside its a no brainer.




https://www.reddit.com/r/Mavericks/comme..._class_in/

This was 11 days ago. Before JG was out with Covid pretty much.

LOL at

Don't bother commenting if you want to saysay about shot volume or cherry picking.