Wemby injury watch

[HoosierDaddyKid]

How disingenuous is this? Can't believe a post was created to take odds on when a player gets injured. Did you ever think he may not suffer a significant at all? I mean, it does happen. I personally hope he never suffers a major Injury outside a ankle sprain which is quite common.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Just need an easy to find place to keep track of this. 

ESPN is doing a special on him called “The Future”. I hope the guy is humble enough to cut through all that b.s. Otherwise he could become Lebron 2.0.

Edit: So here is my Theory all in 1 place (what else is there to read?). As I discuss it and get input, I do change things up a bit, but for the most part this is it:

I think Wemby will be injury prone for 3 interconnected reasons: height, body shape and style of play in this new injury prone era of NBA basketball. To me, I think AD's last 5 years is about what he'll be until injuries just sap all the ability out of him. A guy that is constantly injured during the season (avg 50 gp per season for the last 5 years) and there is no telling if he'll be available or ready to go come playoff time. When he plays, he helps vault your otherwise well built team to contender status, but that is so hit or miss, you most of the time don't want him on your team. I think KP and Bol Bol are the closest player comparisons in terms of the full package (KD is closer to what Wemby is in play, but he doesn't have close enough to the height and even he came out 7 inches shorter, but only 5 lbs lighter than Wemby...let that sink in please!). I have to say, I think Kareem is too far away from this new style of NBA basketball that I can't accept him as a great comparison. I don't think I need to spend a ton of time on the first two things, as those are what have been discussed the most in this topic, but, here is the breakdown of each aspect and how it connects with the rest.

Height:
If you haven't seen or heard of the studies about how height is connected with injury, you probably aren't reading this long post. There's enough smoke out there to me, to believe there's fire with this aspect of it in my mind, so I subscribe to it (I also have to say, I've seen it myself growing up and watching the game for 40i years). This is also the key part to both the other two, because of how unique Wemby is as a player of his height. It's newish territory being so tall. This is why KP, who can't be the sole reason for a theory, is the best case study for any of this. Bol Bol is another pretty good comparison, but then it's starting to get too far away from 7'5". It's 2 inches difference from KP to Wemby, 3 inches from Bol Bol to him. To put it in simpler terms and keeping in mind this is solely in a thought about height in a vacuum, three inches in general is the difference between a great height for a PG to a good height for a SF (6'4" to 6'7"). So that is to basically say, 2-3" still needs to be put in it's place with all of this. Which is also to say, the taller you are, the harder it is to maintain your body.

Body shape:
Andre the Giant would have made a terrible basketball player. Wemby will make an amazing one, when he plays. In general, this part is a look at the height to weight ratio and how it affects a player's health. I haven't made a spreadsheet to calculate the height to weight ratio, I've used height, weight and sight for my "analysis". Pokusevski and Holmgren are 2 guys that have the most comparable body shapes to Wemby. New study on height/weight bigs. I've done this once already, but never set parameters up before doing it. At 6'10" the player can be no more than 205 lbs., then no more than 5 lbs for each inch above (which is still being very generous with Wemby's height/weight ratio). Here is your list with the # of NBA games played to date and years past draft:

Chet Holmgren - 7' - 195 - 0 - 1
Yannick Nzosa - 6'10" - 195 - 0* - 1
Evan Mobley - 7' - 215 - 148 - 2
Isaiah Jackson - 6'10" - 206 (close enough) - 99 - 2
Aleksej Pokusevski - 7' - 201 - 140 - 3
Jaden McDaniels** - 6'10" - 184 - 212 - 3
Nicolas Claxton - 6'11.75" - 217 (close enough) - 170 - 4
Bol Bol - 7'2" - 208 - 123 - 4
Michael Porter Jr*** - 6'10.75" - 211 (close enough) - 187 - 5
Jonathan Isaac - 6'11" - 205 - 147 - 6
Thon Maker - 7'0.75" - 216 - 263 - 7****
Kristaps Porzingis - 7'3" - 230 - 402 - 8

* - Never on the team's roster
** - More a SF for a big man study
*** - preexisting injury issue well documented
**** - only in the league for 5 years

Biggest part of the reason this is a 6'10" cutoff is cause most bigs aren't smaller unless they are way outside the parameters. This is a "big" study, mostly because of the role bigs play on defense being that of a paint protector so they will come into contact with other players in compromising (to the body) positions and elevations. The toll taken on a body of Wemby's shape is much different (read as worse most of the time) than the toll on bigger players (again, most of the time). One thing to mention, either guys with this type build are for whatever reason, not drafted, or they don't make it to the draft. There are also a LOT of 6'10" - 7' guys that have bigger body shapes that are drafted in the space I was studying. Is that supply? Is it where NBA teams are trending towards? Either way, this list, as small as it is doesn't have much to redeem for players with similar body types to Wemby. It's right on par with AD's last 5 years prediction, 50 gps and hit or miss on playoff availability.

Style of play in the new, injury prone, era of NBA basketball:
If you asked me who is gonna win a regular season matchup between any two teams in the league, my first question is, who is on the injury report? This league has either become soft, or the way the players play is not conducive to staying healthy or both. One way or another, it's just the way I see it. If you disagree, we will absolutely agree to disagree on that without any discussion needed.

Wemby's style of play puts him at maximum risk of injury in the NBA. Great defender, rim protector and rebounder on defense.  He would play a "big" role to protect the paint and grab rebounds. That is enough contact for guys to get injured fairly often. I suspect Gobert is a decent place to also consider how Wemby will play on defense, soft, but quicker on the perimeter. Gobert is not oft injured, probably because he does not play with much force, but he does get injured, and all of this is building to the bigger whole.

Great dribble penetrator, 3 shooter, passer and rebounder on offense. Let's get 3 shooting out of the way, not many injuries when someone shoots a 3. Passer? Anytime a player has the ball, there is focus on that player and thus more possibility of contact, the more contact, the closer to injury. Offensive rebounder? Fighting for a rebound and then being that close together while jumping in the air with arms and legs flailing and players trying to get every advantage is a recipe for disaster, however, I continue down the path of the Gobert model where he's gonna play with as little force as possible while still doing well with rebounds. He could be worse than Gobert on this cause he will also be on the perimeter more often than him when the ball goes up, assumingly. In that sense, let's say he's closer to Dirk on ORebs than Gobert.

Dribble penetration is the worst of all of the offensive play style traits (for a player with the other two issues). This is where even small guys get hurt fairly often. This is one of the biggest reasons (please do not read that as ONLY) I keep talking about style of play being an important part of the whole of the theory. I just don't see a way around a 7'5" 220 guy going up against Embiid...or worse, Markus Morris (take your pick of guys) and the outcome not being an injury of some sort to Wemby. Then there's the thought of the adjustment to the speed, quickness and size of the defenders all around him. Hip checks going to the rim are a foul, does the player care about that foul when he hip checks the biggest threat on the court into injury? The more he goes up in the air and lands in traffic, the highest the risk of injury in my mind. Dereck Rose wants his game back.

All of his style of play attributes are what make him who he can be on the court and that should look great. Most of them are what adds up to getting him closer and closer to his next injury. Here's the point where I also say, these 2 way guys are burning the candle at both ends. It's one thing if you are like Trae Young and are an amazing offensive player but take your rest on the defensive end. If you're Maxi Kleber who plays hard on the defensive end but can sit on the 3 line during most of the offensive sets. It's another thing if you're doing it on both ends like AD. It takes a toll, wears you out and then you're doing things you think you should be able to do, but your body is spent so you get injured (see Luka).

Wemby's style of play adds to the interdependent whole of being injury prone. Which is to say, this theory isn't necessarily repeatable as a whole.

And you left out two bigs that were  7'4 or taller that had to retire too soon because of foot and lower extremity injuries in Yao Ming and Rick Smits.

[ItsGoTime]

How disingenuous is this? Can't believe a post was created to take odds on when a player gets injured. Did you ever think he may not suffer a significant at all? I mean, it does happen. I personally hope he never suffers a major Injury outside a ankle sprain which is quite common.

What about the post made you think it was insincere? I laid out my reasoning. Just watched a clip today of him being easily abused by undrafted 6’7” 275 lb Kenneth Lofton Jr. Didn’t look like his body would hold up to that kind of beating night in and night out.

[dirkfansince1998]

What about the post made you think it was insincere? I laid out my reasoning. Just watched a clip today of him being easily abused by undrafted 6’7” 275 lb Kenneth Lofton Jr. Didn’t look like his body would hold up to that kind of beating night in and night out.

You realize that the clip shows 17 year old Wenbanyama?

Two years ago in the U19 WC. In a game where he nearly single-handedly beat an US team that featured some of the highest ranked prospects from the 2022 draft class.  Three top 10 picks. Holmgren, Ivey and Davis. On average nearly two years older than him.
Wenbanyama finished the game with 22pts 8reb 8blk. Lead the game in all categories. Was +7 for the game. US won by two.

[ItsGoTime]

You realize that the clip shows 17 year old Wenbanyama?

Two years ago in the U19 WC. In a game where he nearly single-handedly beat an US team that featured some of the highest ranked prospects from the 2022 draft class.  Three top 10 picks. Holmgren, Ivey and Davis. On average nearly two years older than him.
Wenbanyama finished the game with 22pts 8reb 8blk. Lead the game in all categories. Was +7 for the game. US won by two.

So, he’s not a winning player.

[dirkfansince1998]

So, he’s not a winning player.

I guess that means we have to get rid of Luka because he couldn´t win it all with Slovenia. If the Heat win it all Duncan Robinson could be available. Finally a real franchise player.

[ItsGoTime]

I guess that means we have to get rid of Luka because he couldn´t win it all with Slovenia. If the Heat win it all Duncan Robinson could be available. Finally a real franchise player.

Now we’re talkin!

[ItsGoTime]

Funny I talk about his frail body and DFS comes in talking about production. I have absolutely not denied his ability to play the game of basketball.

[dirkfansince1998]

Funny I talk about his frail body and DFS comes in talking about production. I have absolutely not denied his ability to play the game of basketball.

Great post...

I saw a random clip of Wenbanyama. I don´t care about the context. As a 17 year old kid playing against guys that were two years older he gave up points in the post. Clear evidence that he cannot handle NBA-level physicality.

[ItsGoTime]

Great post...

I saw a random clip of Wenbanyama. I don´t care about the context. As a 17 year old kid playing against guys that were two years older he gave up points in the post. Clear evidence that he cannot handle NBA-level physicality.

I can’t help you if you didn’t see the frailty in the clip. You clearly disagree that he’s going to be injury prone otherwise you wouldn’t be putting up such a stink under the guise of a Napoleon Dynamite comeback line.

Just post your % and be done with it!

[dirkfansince1998]

I can’t help you if you didn’t see the frailty in the clip. You clearly disagree that he’s going to be injury prone otherwise you wouldn’t be putting up such a stink under the guise of a Napoleon Dynamite comeback line.

Just post your % and be done with it!

Maybe I am just not willing to base my opinion on a clip of him as a 17 year old. Ignoring the last two years of physical development.

[ItsGoTime]

Maybe I am just not willing to base my opinion on a clip of him as a 17 year old. Ignoring the last two years of physical development.

Maybe it’s more than 1 clip I am basing my opinion on. Nah, that can’t be, that doesn’t help your attempt to do…whatever it is you’re doing.

[dirkfansince1998]

Maybe it’s more than 1 clip I am basing my opinion on. Nah, that can’t be, that doesn’t help your attempt to do…whatever it is you’re doing.

Adding context. Apparently a crime because it doesn´t fit your narrative. I am sorry. Won´t happen again. This was my last post in this thread. 100% sure.

[ItsGoTime]

Adding context. Apparently a crime because it doesn´t fit your narrative. I am sorry. Won´t happen again. This was my last post in this thread. 100% sure.

Context to a frail body getting rag dolled by saying he was 17 playing against players that were 2 years older than him. How does that context relate to a 19 yo rookie playing against guys 10+ years older? Great context…

[ItsGoTime]

Since 17, Victor has gained a whopping 10 lbs and added 3 inches. Context and development….