NBA TRADE TALK: TDL over

[mvossman]

Love the reply Dan it's always nice when you put your 2 cents in with trades like this since you add another layer to your analysis with agent relations and lineup data. 


Some thoughts, could this be a case of stats misleading the true value Brunson provides? Sure the overall net rating is a slight positive 2.4, but while Brunson is out there it's apparent teams are respecting his ability to drive and create.

I'm no Boston expert, as I've really only watched 3 games this year. But Smart historically isn't known for his ability to put the ball down and create on offense (Though it isn't out of this world to think he CAN do that if asked just not as good as Brunson). Is Schroeder good enough to replace Brunson? If so why is Boston so keen to get something for him this year since they're desperate for a point guard? The stats say Schroeder is having a pretty good year with 16/3/5 on 44/36/85. 

Further, we've already seen how Luka looks next to a 2-guard that not only can't shoot, but can't create either with Richardson. I think Smart is a savvier offensive player than Richardson, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I was a little anxious on that fit from that perspective. Brunson isn't a 3pt sniper, but he CAN hit them. At least at a rate higher than Smart anyways (Brunson career 3pt%: 36.4, vs, Smart career 3pt%: 31.9). 

Is Smart's defense enough to make up that difference? Does otherworldly defense even matter if you have to break the offense to do it?

I was approaching a Smart deal as him essentially replacing Maxi in the starting lineup where: Luka/JB/Smart/DFS/KP would be the starting 5. The Schroeder addition (and hopefully Dragic later on) is the key piece to this deal. If Schroeder can provide that efficient offense Brunson has been giving then it's a no brainer, especially since Schroeder can defend as well. 

Still I have some trepidation at the thought of dealing Brunson just because I don't want to ruin the chemistry the team is rocking with. That Smart deal will probably still be there in the summer if we really want it as well.

Since we're on the subject, here's another great video on Smart's defensive awareness. It isn't lost on me that Smart's teams have made it out of the first round 4 times in 7 tries. Maybe defense truly is the end all be all when you have an offensive savant like Luka on the team?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ4HTegBk44

A few comments on this:

Schroder would in no way be replacing Brunson.  He would at most be a backup point that gave you some minutes when Luka is off the floor.  I would much rather have Dragic play that role, and I am guessing the Mavs would as well.

Smart is not a creator in the way Brunson is and he is not a great three point shooter.  Brunson has a better 3 point percentage, but part of that is he is more selective.  He only takes about 3 a game.  Its one of the knocks on his fit with Luka.  Smart takes about 5 a game and is not terrible when its wide open.  His primary value on offense is as a secondary playmaker.  His actual offensive on/off value is not that bad, but he is not in same league as Brunson.

On the other hand, Smart's fit with Luka on defense is perfect.  He is an elite, versatile point of attack defender.  He would allow DFS to take on the second best perimeter offensive player (in which he would excel).  The defense would be even better than it is now, and there would not be a concern of Brunson getting hunted in the playoffs.

Horford is still playing at a high level, but not sure it makes sense for him to play a lot of minutes with KP.  That kind of limits his contributions.  

This trade would definitely be the case of trading offense for defense.  Given that our offense is what is struggling, that seems like going in the wrong direction.  If we end effectively trading out Brunson for Smart, I think it makes a lot of sense to see if we can get Tobias Harris (possibly in a three way).  That would help balance out the loss in offense.  I really like a KP/Harris/DFS/Smart/Luka starting lineup.

I think you can make the argument that Smart is a better fit with Luka due to how impactful his defense would be.  On the other hand, I think we already know what Smart is, but Brunson is still improving.  I don't think you do something like this unless you have legit concern you are going to be able to hold onto Brunson.

EDIT: Also, you suggested that this deal could be done in the summer.  Wont be able to trade Brunson then unless its a tricky S&T.  Not sure how workable that would be, but Brunson could run off to NY after they cleared cap and there would be nothing we could do.