NBA TRADE TALK: TDL over

[SleepingHero]

So, the elephant in the room is Smart vs. JB.  As I showed in a post this morning, Brunson is a negative player defensively and a great positive offensively.  Smart is basically the invert and slightly more highly rated overall in LEBRON and EPM.  The real question is who fits better with Luka.  Some eye tests don't agree, but for January the Luka/JB combo has a net rating of 2.4.  It is Brunson's second worst pairing behind THJ.  In that same time frame, Bruson is by far Luka's worst pairing.  This is concerning since it is the most success the team has had in the Luka era.  Meanwhile Smart is a Kidd wet dream.  If the team has any concerns about retaining Brunson, Smart wouldn't be a dumb alternative (see what I did there).

Love the reply Dan it's always nice when you put your 2 cents in with trades like this since you add another layer to your analysis with agent relations and lineup data. 


Some thoughts, could this be a case of stats misleading the true value Brunson provides? Sure the overall net rating is a slight positive 2.4, but while Brunson is out there it's apparent teams are respecting his ability to drive and create.

I'm no Boston expert, as I've really only watched 3 games this year. But Smart historically isn't known for his ability to put the ball down and create on offense (Though it isn't out of this world to think he CAN do that if asked just not as good as Brunson). Is Schroeder good enough to replace Brunson? If so why is Boston so keen to get something for him this year since they're desperate for a point guard? The stats say Schroeder is having a pretty good year with 16/3/5 on 44/36/85. 

Further, we've already seen how Luka looks next to a 2-guard that not only can't shoot, but can't create either with Richardson. I think Smart is a savvier offensive player than Richardson, but I'd be lying if I didn't say I was a little anxious on that fit from that perspective. Brunson isn't a 3pt sniper, but he CAN hit them. At least at a rate higher than Smart anyways (Brunson career 3pt%: 36.4, vs, Smart career 3pt%: 31.9). 

Is Smart's defense enough to make up that difference? Does otherworldly defense even matter if you have to break the offense to do it?

I was approaching a Smart deal as him essentially replacing Maxi in the starting lineup where: Luka/JB/Smart/DFS/KP would be the starting 5. The Schroeder addition (and hopefully Dragic later on) is the key piece to this deal. If Schroeder can provide that efficient offense Brunson has been giving then it's a no brainer, especially since Schroeder can defend as well. 

Still I have some trepidation at the thought of dealing Brunson just because I don't want to ruin the chemistry the team is rocking with. That Smart deal will probably still be there in the summer if we really want it as well.

Since we're on the subject, here's another great video on Smart's defensive awareness. It isn't lost on me that Smart's teams have made it out of the first round 4 times in 7 tries. Maybe defense truly is the end all be all when you have an offensive savant like Luka on the team?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ4HTegBk44