NBA TRADE TALK: TDL over

[burekemde]

Trifecta of evil on full display during the Grizzlies game.

Luka - Brunson - THJ - DFS - Chriss
-140.0 in 2 min

Luka - Brunson - THJ - DFS - Powell
-9.1 in 9 min

Luka - Brunson - DFS - Kleber - Powell
+13.8 in 13 min

Thanks sefant! This might indicated that Luka-Brunson tandem plays better with Kleber, and with two bigs, than they do with the small ball with DFS at PF. In fact, they have a positive number there.

How about this +/- number? Luka-Brunson are at +13.8!

This clearly indicates that Luka-Brunson are great, but depend on the other 3 to play within their style of game.

The problem with +/- is that it needs to be boiled down even further, even further, even further. Because there are even more variables than this one. And when you boil down things to the point where +/- might be of something use, you lose the significance in not having enough data. A few minutes is simply not enough to deduce a certain pattern. But if you use the overall +/- you maybe have enough data, but impacted with too many different lineups, schemes, situations etc. That's why the +/- is highly irrelevant and too noisy...

I think this illustrates very well the issue with +/- stats and using a single number to tell something extremely complex.

Not that i dont think +/- should not be posted. Its interesting to look at. Just reminder that its extremely noisy.


Now back to the eye test and not revealed in those +/- is that one of the few weak points in Brunsons game is difficult to enter the paint when he is the focal point. However, I notice that when Luka has the ball and draws defense attention and passes to Brunson, either directly or through another teammate, Brunsons ability to enter the paint significantly increases. He is extremely efficient in these situations. Luka opens this up. And Luka has lacked this really a lot. Before it was all about shooting. Luka opens space - we shoot. Luka opens space - we shoot. Now with Brunson, this space can be converted into penetration to the paint, and here is a player Brunson that knows how to use that space when in the paint. Its a completely diffefent level that Luka-Brunson tandem can reach comapred to Luka-THJ and others!

Perhaps it might be that the above lineups with THJ dont work as he tends to destroy this Luka-Brunson cooperativity in attacking the paint. But it could be other factors as well. THJ has tendency to quickly take a shot and prevent this effect from occuring between Luka and Brunson. It could also be that defense is just not good with THJ playing there with them. THJ has been in general awful, on both ends of the floor, and this may be a lot his fault. What is clear to me is the positive effect of Luka and Brunson in attacking the paint. Once they interact, one of them will get to the paint very easy. And they are both deadly in those situations. This effect, is something we need to build our entire franchise around IMO. And we should really try add Sabonis, a big that can screen, drive and pass, and only further increase this cooperativity between Luka and Brunson and their ability to enter the paint.