NBA TRADE TALK: TDL over

[burekemde]

From a post in another thread:


Sticking with 12/1 as the start date, Bullock is +26.5.   Luka is in the 10+ area with THJ, Green and KP since 12/1.  It drops down to +4.3 with Powell, +2.8 with Maxi, +0.5 with DFS and -3.1 with Brunson.  What?  Surely it looks better since January 1st where we've won six of seven games?  Nope.  Brunson/Luka are -5.6 since 1/1.  

It's interesting DS. An example of the negative numbers, the +/- can come from a short period (one or two bad games with a huge team loss) while being consistently great in multiple games winning all by a small positive margin. What I would like to see is the median distribution around the +/- numbers in general, which could hint more on the consistency behind the overall number. In the illustrated example, the mean number would be positive for two players (related to number of games instead just overall all games), while the overall number would be negative, due to that single or few big losses. I would like to see statistics that breaks this single number down in multlple parameters in order to understand it better.

In addition to the above parameters, there are so many other variables that impact the +/- numbers, that it is too difficult for me to understand it and use it.

WCS and Burke are all around +2.0. Luka is -1.7. This alone would suggest to build the team around WCS and Burke and trade Luka for a 2nd round pick. There is too much noise in this unless we find out how to deduce the reasons why the numbers are as such.