NBA TRADE TALK: TDL over

[Mavs2021]

But you get some good sized deals back by re-signing Brunson/DFS, right? I mean, they're not THJ sized deals, I get it. But, if the team is willing to pay the tax next year, they don't have to trade anyone. Most of us don't think they will. 

If they won't pay it, I'd rather keep both Brunson and DFS than THJ, if given the choice.

No doubt, but there is a significant window, where you cannot trade Gary Harris or re-signed DFS/Brunson. Timing-wise THJ´s deal makes everything a lot easier imho.

Lots of things to consider for Nico already. It´s a sneaky tricky TDL to navigate for the Mavs.

[KillerLeft]

No doubt, but there is a significant window, where you cannot trade Gary Harris or re-signed DFS/Brunson. Timing-wise THJ´s deal makes everything a lot easier imho.

Lots of things to consider for Nico already. It´s a sneaky tricky TDL to navigate for the Mavs.

Great point!

[cow]

MBT aren't going to trade THJ just to get off of his contract.  As bad as the fit is, they like him, at least enough to not give him the Harrison Barnes treatment.  He could get traded, but they'd want to upgrade him or at least get someone near is value that would fit better with Kidd's play style.

[KillerLeft]

MBT aren't going to trade THJ just to get off of his contract.  As bad as the fit is, they like him, at least enough to not give him the Harrison Barnes treatment.  He could get traded, but they'd want to upgrade him or at least get someone near is value that would fit better with Kidd's play style.

So do you think: 

A) they've decided to go into tax territory (and either pay it or shed salary at next year's deadline) by re-signing Brunson/DFS? 

B) they'll try to shed salary, either at this TDL or over the summer, by moving someone besides THJ?

C) they will simply not re-sign Brunson, THJ or both?

I'm THJ's biggest fan here (for sure) and even I think it's clear he's not giving them a good return on his contract, so far.

[F Gump]

But you get some good sized deals back by re-signing Brunson/DFS, right? I mean, they're not THJ sized deals, I get it. But, if the team is willing to pay the tax next year, they don't have to trade anyone. Most of us don't think they will. 

If they won't pay it, I'd rather keep both Brunson and DFS than THJ, if given the choice.

Let's say the Mavs agree, and decide they MUST move off some money. Figuring out what that looks like, and how they move forward, isn't easy.

For example, if we want them to move THJ for Harris, isn't it realistic that they might then pivot in the summer and use the Bird rights on Harris to try to re-sign him at a lesser number (at just above MLE, say)? So the "savings" by moving THJ is less, but going forward they still might retain some talent.

In that vein, I'm intrigued with ORL and pure cap-reducing deals. Looks like there might be possibilities there.

So would you do this deal, with ORL, that might be worth $20M in future cap savings, but where it looks like ORL certainly gets the better end of the deal? No picks, just players.

Powell, THJ, Burke
FOR
Lopez, Harris, Moore (injured)

My thought would be that you waive Moore to free up a slot for Dragic, then in the summer you would re-sign Harris for just over MLE, and re-sign Lopez for about the same 5M he gets now. In total that would be a reduction of about 20M next season, but you might end up with having similar talent available on the roster. Is that realistic?

[F Gump]

One more thing re THJ.

The Mavs are somewhat faced with the issue that he's the 3rd highest paid Mav (counting Luka at his max), but he's not the 3rd most valuable contributor.

Brunson is, imo.

"Fairness" in relative contracts is a thing, because "if you are paying him X and I'm better,  then I should get more" is part of everyone's thinking. THJ's contract will have a ripple effect with both JB and DFS.

That's another reason to trade THJ, I think. Even if it's only MCs money, they can't pay everyone "THJ money" who is playing at that level or better. The total just gets too big. They have to pay those guys MLE or a bit more.

Pencil in the talents, and it's easy to see how there's only so much to go around ...

Luka - 36
KP - 34
____ (3rd best) -- 15-18 or so [Brunson]
Players 4-8 - MLE (10-12) ... right now, this might be DFS, Kleber, Bullock, Powell, THJ

That puts you at 140-148, for 8 players. That's more than the tax line! Then you have a few making only 3-5M (Bobi, Green, Burke, S Brown) and a few making 1.5-ish minimum (Moses, Franky, Chriss) and you're deep in tax.

But it's the same with everyone. No one can really be paying those mid-roster players THJ prices, and make it all fit.

[ItsGoTime]

Your opinion is as valid as mine (maybe more) but to me, your resulting lineup isn't even one that I'd try. It's a 5 and two 4's, to me. I would absolutely not try to play Covington at the 3 (I think he's closer to a 4/5 than a 4/3), especially now that he is starting to slow down. Ingrim, maybe, but honestly I don't like it. I don't think either of those guys' secondary position fit (3) is as good as DFS' secondary fit at the 4, and his fit at the 4 is so less than ideal that we're trying to identify another player to rotate with Kleber to avoid it (maybe we don't even need to do that). 

I like the talent change, but I think the roster fit gets worse, and significantly so.

I think you’re stretching and squinting way too much here to try to fit DFS into some position/player that doesn’t exist.

[KillerLeft]

My thought would be that you waive Moore to free up a slot for Dragic, then in the summer you would re-sign Harris for just over MLE, and re-sign Lopez for about the same 5M he gets now. In total that would be a reduction of about 20M next season, but you might end up with having similar talent available on the roster. Is that realistic?

I'm not sure if it's realistic or not (you'd know better than I). 

Maybe I need to get more familiar with Harris, but not re-signing him was kind of the point for me in the earlier scenario (which is why I was hoping for another smaller asset like a late first, second rounder or Moses Brown type). 

But, if Harris is some sort of prize, maybe your idea is the way to go. 

I, personally, think Powell is starting to look like an important part of this team again for the first time since the injury, and I'm quite content to simply keep him until his deal expires. So, I'm a little less keen to replace him with Lopez than you might be, but it would help with the tax issue, I suppose. 

All in all, this is probably the way "salary dump" deals look. We haven't seen many of them around here over the years. I suppose the Richardson deal from this past summer applies, but it was much simpler. Seems like other teams make deals like yours fairly often.

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I think you’re stretching and squinting way too much here to try to fit DFS into some position/player that doesn’t exist

Huh? I'm describing what he is? So, it does exist. It's him! 

Maybe we're not understanding each other.

[F Gump]

imo Harris is no super prize. He's more or less THJ in what he does, but maybe THJ in NY level of play.

SG, lousy defense, mostly a shooter who you think will get you a bucket or 3. 35% or so on 3s. On a deal like THJ's, but no way he gets that again imo. He's not as healthy as THJ, gets nicked where he misses maybe 20 games each year it seems.

He's about THJ age.

I think he could get better, perhaps, but "as is" should play in your top 8 if healthy.

[KillerLeft]

imo Harris is no super prize. He's more or less THJ in what he does, but maybe THJ in NY level of play.

SG, lousy defense, mostly a shooter who you think will get you a bucket or 3. 35% or so on 3s. On a deal like THJ's, but no way he gets that again imo. He's not as healthy as THJ, gets nicked where he misses maybe 20 games each year it seems.

He's about THJ age.

I think he could get better, perhaps, but "as is" should play in your top 8 if healthy.

Gotcha. 

So isn't a more simple THJ/Harris swap, just letting Harris walk a little better? 

It goes against everything in my blood not to try to get better with every deal, too, but there are quite literally more good players here right now than they have rotation spots for, and the logjam is most prominent in that THJ/Bullock/Green/Brown/Ntilikina area, imo. 

If you're right and they will pay the tax, then GREAT! But if not, I'd be tempted to make a deal like that and view a retained Brunson and DFS as the real prize.

[omahen]

Imho, the only deal that makes Mavs better is to trade THJ with assets for a better player, so basically change his contract for a better one and then pay the tax by resigning DFS and Brunson. All of the rest is imho making Mavs worse. Dumping THJ for nothing is just saving money, they are not better for it. Adding cheap contracts of Brunson and/or DFS with "salary match players" like THJ for a good but not all star player is likely just a marginal improvement. Resigning existing team puts them deep in tax but we all doubt this team is a contender. You can't really get something of value for DFS and/or Brunson straight up. Letting DFS and/or Brunson walk is worst.  

One area where Mavs can certainly save money is that group of overpaid vet min players in Burke, Brown, Bobi - you could easily save at least a million per each of them by replacing them with vet min guys. One other option - Kleber is not guaranteed and will be 30 years old. Would he agree to sign a new, lets say, 20/4 deal instead of that 9 million for next season? Certainly areas I would explore that would save 10 mil in total without really affecting quality of the roster.

[ItsGoTime]

Huh? I'm describing what he is? So, it does exist. It's him! 

Maybe we're not understanding each other.

The whole conversation you're having with SH is similar to the conversation you were having a bit ago when talking about Bullock threatening DFS position. You're describing some pidgeon holed DFS that can't possibly be replaced with this, that or the other because, reasons. If we were to get RoCo, Bullock would fit next to him just fine as the 3. In other words, DFS isn't as irreplaceable as you're making him out to be.

[KillerLeft]

Imho, the only deal that makes Mavs better is to trade THJ with assets for a better player, so basically change his contract for a better one and then pay the tax by resigning DFS and Brunson.

That would be awesome. So basically you're suggesting they use THJ as part of a deal to get the roster to a point where it makes sense to start paying the tax. 

I'm all for that. Just can't imagine what the deal would be. I haven't seen any such (realistic) deal get suggested here, but then again that doesn't mean it's not out there, and maybe I'm wrong about what's realistic.

[omahen]

But if not, I'd be tempted to make a deal like that and view a retained Brunson and DFS as the real prize.

I just don't see a fresh GM admitting that his "prize signing" of his first season as a GM was a collossal mistake that needs to be dumped for nothing. That is some seriously bad cap management.

[KillerLeft]

If we were to get RoCo, Bullock would fit next to him just fine as the 3. In other words, DFS isn't as irreplaceable as you're making him out to be.

Everyone is replaceable. Bullock CAN be played at the 3. 

I don't think he'd do it anywhere remotely close to as well as DFS. Like, not even close. DFS plays so much bigger than Bullock. He's probably the best rebounder on the team, imo. 

I wouldn't do that, but I think Bullock/Covington/KP would be a lot better than the Covington/Ingrim/KP lineup we were discussing, for context. 

I'm not trying to invent a position, I'm trying to illustrate the differences I see in the players we're discussing. I think DFS is a significantly better player than Bullock, personally, and that's completely leaving position or fit out of it. 

Nobody is asking you to agree, you stone-hearted DFS hater!

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I just don't see a fresh GM admitting that his "prize signing" of his first season as a GM was a collossal mistake that needs to be dumped for nothing. That is some seriously bad cap management.

Yeah, it would be awful - I'm with you. 

But MORE awful than having to let DFS or Brunson go?? 

There are levels to awful, you know? 

Maybe they'll just pay the tax, who knows.

[omahen]

That would be awesome. So basically you're suggesting they use THJ as part of a deal to get the roster to a point where it makes sense to start paying the tax. 

I'm all for that. Just can't imagine what the deal would be. I haven't seen any such (realistic) deal get suggested here, but then again that doesn't mean it's not out there, and maybe I'm wrong about what's realistic.

Exactly. Of course we can endlessly discuss what kind of player would be needed to push Mavs into serious contender status and we might never agree. I will not repeat which player(s) would I go for. There is also an option to wait till draft and make the trade than, knowing in advance Brunson and DFS will be resigned.

Out of the box idea - how about Washington? They are reportedly not satisfied with Dinwiddie and they have an overload of average players and not enough minutes to go around, especially on PF spot, which is main position of need for Dallas. So how about Brunson and THJ for Dinwidie and Hachimura? Washington could get a better PG to put next to Beal and a 6th man shooter. Kuzma is great at PF so they don't really need Hachimura. Mavs get a young starting PF that has one more year of a cost control deal and a solid replacement for Brunson. 

They also have that awful Bertans deal, which is about twice as bad as THJ deal, but I have a hard time seeing a deal that would benefit both.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

lousy defense

His defense was the main reason he got paid in Denver.  Not saying he's played at that level since then but when his defense is at his best, it's much better than Hardaway's best.

[omahen]

Maybe they'll just pay the tax, who knows.

Unless they trade DFS and or Brunson, I think that is the only realistic outcome if they want to save face that they are actually trying to get better.

[Hypermav]

Tim shot 38% from 3 the last 6 games, maybe his shot is turning around.  

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

It goes against everything in my blood not to try to get better with every deal, too, but there are quite literally more good players here right now than they have rotation spots for, and the logjam is most prominent in that THJ/Bullock/Green/Brown/Ntilikina area, imo. 

I think we're on the same page that getting better probably requires us moving someone to get ANOTHER Maxi who may be a little better but I've also come to the same conclusion as above that we should really prioritize keeping DFS and Brunson and then see where things shake out and how we can make moves once they're signed because who would you feel comfortable taking minutes from at this point?  

Playing our best basketball going into the trade deadline could end up being a bad thing but you really can't deny that we're seeing a really good basketball team.  Only team to win 10 games since the start of the year...