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2021-2022 ROSTER TALK: [ARCHIVED]
(05-27-2022, 12:56 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I like your tiers.  I used the core-six nomenclature as it has become a popular go-to around here.  But THJ definitely belongs where you put him.  When I spoke of the difficulty of adding a 4th best player, I was envisioning someone on the same tier as you’ve put Brunson and DFS.  I just don’t see how we get that without giving up someone’s sacred cow (but not Cow’s sacred cow).  

I keep saying I’ve got this long post I intend to put up at some point, but one of the things I point out is rotation minutes get cramped pretty quick as Hardaway returns.  Normal regular season minutes for THJ, DFS, Reggie and the 3 ball-handlers wipe out all 1, 2 and 3 minutes and most of the minutes at the 4.  That’s before we give Maxi some kind of load at one of the big spots.  No time to get into the weeds right now, but if you add a real starting center to the mix, then there is very little time for any of Powell, Bertans, Green or Frank and the time available probably best suits Bertans.  A playoff rotation with someone like Turner would probably be:

Turner/Maxi
DFS/Maxi
Reggie/THJ
Brunson/SD
Luka/SD

You probably need some Maxi insurance.  You don’t really have any time outside of injuries to develop Green and Frank.  But, the question is can you get someone at Turner’s level with discards and a pick or two?  If not, would you be willing to give up one of your “playoff rotation” guys for Turner?  

You’ve already said yes to THJ.  I think it more likely another team would ask for Reggie or Maxi.  My point is if you have a shot at someone who is an obvious “Playoff Starter”, you can’t take any of the guys on the “Playoff Rotation” list off the table.  I personally think Reggie is the easiest to replace given the return of THJ and the fact that you already have two younger guys on the roster who are good defenders.  If Indy says no to FG’s Powell based offer, I wouldn’t be the least bit afraid of substituting Reggie for Powell (and adding Chriss to make the matching work).  It just balances out the roster better.

Yes, I am firmly in the camp if we are going to get a guy like Turner that is going to hurt a little.  Maybe I am wrong.  If I am a team Maxi is my want with either Josh Green or a pick…maybe both second.  I guess bullock would have a appeal due to his role and position.  I think both maxi and bullock could be moved again to a contender due to their skill set.   I just can’t envision we will get any traction with a Turner level starter with Powell.  Even if he has one more year left on his deal.  I just think there will be more attractive alternatives for them out there.

Maxi is an important piece here, but I wouldn’t hesitate to include him if I could get a player who I believe can be a core starter.  It may be the best time to move him after a nice playoffs season after a rough regular season.  I am in no means in the camp of dumping him.  Just being realistic that he is going to be attractive to other teams in most of our trade conversations.  Much more attractive than a guy like Hardaway imo due to contract and desired skill set.
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The more I think of it, the more it makes sense to trade for Tobias Harris. 

IF we could get him for THJ and Bertans it makes perfect sense to me. Follow that up with getting someone like Drummond for the TP-MLE and we could for sure make that work as the only offseason moves.

Starting lineup
Luka/JB/DFS/Harris/Drummond 

No C lineup
Luka/JB or Din/Bullock/DFS/Harris

Closing lineup
Luka/JB or Din/DFS/Maxi or Bullock/Harris

Depth chart
Luka/Din/Burke
JB/Din/FN/Green
DFS/Bullock/Green
Harris/Maxi/#26
Drummond/Powell/Chriss/Boban

Plenty of places to improve that roster, but this team with a full season under their belt beats the Warriors IMO.
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I am out on Tobias Harris.  Nice player and at times looks real good.  But at the end of the day, he is not a difference maker.  I am not playing for other teams mistakes.  Also not interested in paying filet mignon prices for chicken fried steak.  Yes he improves our front court talent, but I think there are smarter alternatives out there.
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(05-27-2022, 04:07 PM)mvossman Wrote: I prefer EPM to Raptor, but the numbers are similar.  Net needs to be taken with a grain of salt because there are some specialty guys in there that play less than 20 minutes a game.  There are also some folks that played a very small part of the season.  Also, playing high minutes in a game is a very important skill and should be part of the equation.  Being able to play most games is also a very important skill, a lesson we learned with the KP debacle.  Overall they are both easily top 75 players and probably closer to 50.  That is not "start-ish",  that is legit playoff starter without any qualification.

As to long term, I totally agree that a two way player would be a better fit with Luka, and eventually it may make the most sense to leverage Brunson to get that player.  But there are three other players on the court.  I think you can get away with Luka and Brunson with 3 plus defenders on the court.  It does make other things more difficult.  I think the defense suffers significantly if you put another minus defender with them (like Timmy).  That means you have to focus on defensive players, which is what tends to lead to having too many players on the court that can only shoot open 3s.  

In the short term, it doesn't really matter as we will be way better off asset wise to sign him then let him walk or get forced into a crappy S&T.


No dog here in the EPM vs RAPTOR vs LEBRON fight. I just went with the one with the easiest interface to slice and dice. 538 is great. Their site defaults to a 1k minutes and some change filter so those numbers above are only for players playing rotation minutes (depending how you define it). For comparison Brunson played about 2k more minutes than that, which looked to be 3-500ish higher than most. That availability is awesome after we experienced the Great Disappearing KP act, but the playoffs are a different animal where it’s less grind and more about what you can do after teams take away your primary.

Want to go down a rabbit hole thought experiment? No? I’m going to do it anyway. Let’s assume both Brunson and DFS are top 75 players in the NBA. Does that make them solid-caliber (playoff) starters? That “playoff” may have gotten lost in the nested quotes but is important here. 16 playoff teams * 5 starters = 80. So yes! But wait - I’d posit that if we went team by team, we’d quickly agree that at least 1-2 players on each starting lineup aren’t really playoff starter level  and are more a function of roster construction and necessity (looking at you Dwight Powell).

But, we’d also agree that there are players on non-playoff teams that ARE that playoff starter level. Maybe 1-2ish per non-playoff team? That would be roughly a wash. So trying to construct a definition on the fly that roughly fits my low-effort initial heuristic - above #70 net (RAPTOR) and meeting a reasonable minutes threshold means you’re a clear playoff starter caliber player. #70-100 you’re in the conversation, more -ish for me but reasonably debatable (tool flaws, sample size, past performance, etc.).

I think that puts both DFS and Brunson in the range where you could make an argument they’re “clear” or not. YMMV.  95% agree with your comments on fit but this has already become a novel. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.
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(05-28-2022, 09:41 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: I am out on Tobias Harris.  Nice player and at times looks real good.  But at the end of the day, he is not a difference maker.  I am not playing for other teams mistakes.  Also not interested in paying filet mignon prices for chicken fried steak.  Yes he improves our front court talent, but I think there are smarter alternatives out there.
I think with what seems to be his availability on top of their need for shooters the deal makes too much sense. I also think he would be a great “C” for what we have bern talking about. He has some handles, so there is another player on the court that can attack the close out. I think him, Maxi, and DFS on the court would also be great for the biggest small ball lineup in the league. If we could do this to add John Collins instead of Harris, I would be all for it. I just think JC will command a much bigger package. Also, Harris doesn’t miss a lot of games. That is s pretty big plus!
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(05-28-2022, 09:50 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I think with what seems to be his availability on top of their need for shooters the deal makes too much sense. I also think he would be a great “C” for what we have bern talking about. He has some handles, so there is another player on the court that can attack the close out. I think him, Maxi, and DFS on the court would also be great for the biggest small ball lineup in the league. If we could do this to add John Collins instead of Harris, I would be all for it. I just think JC will command a much bigger package. Also, Harris doesn’t miss a lot of games. That is s pretty big plus!

You may be right.  I just can’t get there with Harris.

In addition, I just can’t see Morey taking back bertans and Hardaway back in a package.  Wasn’t there some talk that they could explore moving Harris for air with future picks so they could go after Beal.  I believe this is very unlikely though and only a few teams could even take on Harris and they may not have any interest. 

But morey will be looking at these big move visions I believe.
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(05-28-2022, 09:54 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: You may be right.  I just can’t get there with Harris.

In addition, I just can’t see Morey taking back bertans and Hardaway back in a package.  Wasn’t there some talk that they could explore moving Harris for air with future picks so they could go after Beal.  I believe this is very unlikely though and only a few teams could even take on Harris and they may not have any interest. 

But morey will be looking at these big move visions I believe.
I think Morey has been looking for these big money moves and nothing is coming to fruition. Doing what we did with KP’s contract in breaking it up with players that might work out is a pretty great alternative. For them, it gets them shooters that can open things up. For us, it consolidates 2 contracts into 1 that expires a year earlier. If Harris doesn’t work out next season, he’s a HUGE expiring where we then have our full allotment of picks to grab a disgruntled player of significance (if that’s the direction we want to go, otherwise, we can use his expiring to get a couple “better than we have now” players).
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(05-27-2022, 10:57 PM)Jommybone Wrote: Who are these non-Rudy available rebounders of whom Steiny speaks? Do they even exist?

Available C's too expensive to make an offer without sending major assets: Turner, Ayton, Capela.

Assets available: Powell/Boban/Brown/Burke (expirings), Green (barely an asset), #26 (barely an asset). 

Candidates (in order of my preference due to contract/fit): Wood, Vucevic, Holmes, Adams, Gafford.
We just paid a whole lot of money to a guy that went 9-29 (31%) on FG and 3-20 (15%) 3-pt% in both our win or go home elimination games last couple of playoffs. SMH 
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Let´s just look at this realistically from an asset POV.

None of us wants to trade Doncic, Brunson, DFS, Bullock or Kleber.

THJ´s value is at the lowest point, because he just needed about six months to recover from a broken foot.

Powell, Brown, Burke, Boban have been unplayable in the play-offs. They are all on expiring contracts. Value will increase over time.

Bertans has the longest and worst contract. He´s untradeable. He has not improved his value by shooting 40/37/83 with a whooping 4.1 PPG / 1.4 RPG in the play-offs.

Dinwiddie has been wildly inconsistent, but I´d argue the 14/4/2 with 42/42/82 splits have at least steadied this sinking asset ship and the value is trending upwards now. It´s at least conceivable that he could be used in a trade for an expiring contract or an player upgrade without breaking the bank.

This is the perfect summer to be patient, unless some major star wants to be here. We have had far more success than expected, so the pressure is off a little bit. Nico had some breathing room and if he nails the draft, the TPE or the TP-MLE he´ll earn more credit and trust with the fanbase.

I absolutely hate the idea of something like paying two 1st round picks for Powell + THJ for Turner + McConnell and then watch some other team sign Nurkic to a one year $6M deal.
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(05-28-2022, 10:12 AM)HAguiar95 Wrote: Available C's too expensive to make an offer without sending major assets: Turner, Ayton, Capela.

Assets available: Powell/Boban/Brown/Burke (expirings), Green (barely an asset), #26 (barely an asset). 

Candidates (in order of my preference due to contract/fit): Wood, Vucevic, Holmes, Adams, Gafford.
I think Wood is better in the Harris role I just talked about. I would be all about that for him too. Once again, I think the package for Wood is similar to Collins in that we give up more than we want to and in doing so, another move needs to be made.
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(05-27-2022, 09:16 PM)F Gump Wrote: 1 Send out THJ and pick (in June) with no player coming back -- Mavs receive $21.3M TPE (in July, this would be less.)
2 Existing TPE expires unused
3 Assumes all options are filled -- Franky, Burke, Kleber all included in salary and roster totals
...Mavs start with 13 roster slots filled, total about 135M in salary.
4 Sign player X to full MLE at 10Mish.
5 Sign Brunson to remainder of apron room 10Mish. [oops]

IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO: (a) Mavs are hard capped at the 155M apron. It cannot be exceeded no matter what. (b) After all the above, where they are under the apron including the MLE guy and Brunson, they can make trades (including sign-and-trades) as long as they take back less in salary than they send away.

So they can keep everyone but THJ, skip 4, give Brunson $20mm (the exact amount he was rumored to want), and still work a S&T for Lavine? That's actually way more of a possibility than I assumed. Maybe there's something to the Stein rumors (beyond Nico just working to build favor with Rich Paul) after all.
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(05-28-2022, 10:18 AM)ItsGoTime Wrote: I think Wood is better in the Harris role I just talked about. I would be all about that for him too. Once again, I think the package for Wood is similar to Collins in that we give up more than we want to and in doing so, another move needs to be made.
After rereading, the package for Collins would require players we don’t want to give up. The package for Wood would require picks we don’t want to give up. The package for Harris shouldn’t need any more than players we don’t need to duplicate our success (maybe this year’s pick, but I don’t think they really want more picks right now).

I really wish we would have kept Barnes, he is another player that would fit well in that role.
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(05-28-2022, 09:38 AM)Chicagojk Wrote: Maxi is an important piece here, but I wouldn’t hesitate to include him if I could get a player who I believe can be a core starter.  It may be the best time to move him after a nice playoffs season after a rough regular season.


100% here.
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(05-27-2022, 11:30 PM)Branduil Wrote: Dwight Howard is a free agent. And there's a Kidd connection there.

Dwight is 36 of course, but he's definitely still a better player than Powell.

D12 kind of fell off last season.  I've wanted him for the last few years but there are probably better options at that price range now.
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(05-28-2022, 10:12 AM)HAguiar95 Wrote: Available C's too expensive to make an offer without sending major assets: Turner, Ayton, Capela.

Assets available: Powell/Boban/Brown/Burke (expirings), Green (barely an asset), #26 (barely an asset). 

Candidates (in order of my preference due to contract/fit): Wood, Vucevic, Holmes, Adams, Gafford.

Wood would fall into that group requiring major assets.  

Vucevic might as well and does not fit what we want to do.

If you want an established starting center that fits what we want to do for reasonable assets, Holmes is probably the pick.

We should have included Gafford in the KP trade.  Don't see us going after him now.
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Every new season give us new lessons, new experience, both for the players and for us fans. Most important lessons in this season in my opinion were:

1. Importance of team chemistry. 

2. Health concerns.

3. Roster fit, and playoff fit.

4. Availability, compared to a salary. We saw the situation when you have to sit your max player in playoff (KP last year, Gobert this year in Utah).


This season was succes and we finally go back to building something special. We managed to get back team chemistry, we took of the pressure of losing in 1 round, and get a coach who knows to work with young players.

We weren't far away from going to the finals, but in my opinion game 2 and 3 were probably the games which decided the winner. Also we achieve this with almost the same roster from the previus seasons and we also missed our 2 best scorer from last year playoff.

So talking about future, it's obvius that we need another big man and with this years playoff run, we will see if we can become interesting team for a ring chasers in the future (James 2023, KD later...). 
By positions:

Centers:

Powell - Kleber - Marjanovic

Position of the biggest need. Marjanovic is cheerleader and that's it... While Powell and Kleber are good/solid backups. Both of them are loyal guys, they knew community and both of them are on expiring contracts. Kleber had a few really good playoff games, specially for a back-up player. It's hard to find a better backup players games in this playoffs, but the lack of a starting caliber center put a shadow over it.

Next on is Powell... Probably the biggest disappointment in this playoff. He got few really good regular season games, was available in every game, but this playoffs was disaster. Looking on the situation, i wouldn't be surprised if both of them stayed and then next year sign a new contract for half of the current salary.

Currently looks like it will be hard to trade him, while there is also not a lot of centers on the market. It will be interesting to see the price Pacers are looking for a Turner (who is injury prone), price Magic would want for Bamba, Mitchell Robinson is probably out of our range... Maybe Drummond for TPE...

Currently their is few centers you would want to (over)pay and say that player is making you tittle contender. Someone for TPE, draft and UNDFA players you would develop can bring you starting caliber center in few years.

POWER FORWARDS:

Finney-Smith - Bertans - Chriss

It's really crazy how DFS is improving every season. One of the best players, gives everything every game and really fits into this roster. Bertans... Overpaid.. It will be hard to move that contract this offseason, but i'm ok to see how it could work Bertans and THJ as the scorers from the bench next season. 

If there is possibilty to trade him for something, trade him, if not let's see what can he do next season after full training camp with this roster.

Chriss.. We will see how can he improve during the offseason...

SMALL FORWARDS:

Bullock - Green

Bullock, the same as the DFS... Fits on this roster really well. Green showed big improvment during this season. From unplayable and out of the league to slowly becoming a bench/rotational player. I really don't understand the hate against him. Yes, he was drafted before Bey, Maxey and Bane, but you have to do with what you have, and don't put additional preassure on this kid. This year Playoffs were still to high for him but, if he can work on his shoot during offseason, he can slowly become maybe new version DFS who improved by each season. 

SHOOTING GUARDS:

Brunson - Hardaway

It's crazy how Brunson impreved this season. We finnaly got another 20+ppg player for the playoff series. Also knows the community, our drafted player... 
Hardaway is another underrared player on this forum. He missed this year beacuse of injury, but let's not forget that last year he was 2 best scorer in playoffs. He is not 2 guy in the team, but he can be very similar do Dinwindie in sg position. He is not consitent, but if you can add another 20+ scorer from bench to this year playoff...

Normally, if opportunity to land Lavine become available, you shuld trade him, but if not, it's going to be interesting next season having another 20+ scorer coming from the bench.

Point guard:

Luka - Dinwiddie - Ntilkina

Luka is Luka... Spencer is fantastic 6 man, and Frank defense on Booker and Paul for less then 2 milion per season? Nothing to change.

Overall:

Fantastic run. Also getting THJ back for next season, while having a draft pick. If we can add someone for TPE at center (or trade for him), while having draft pick, there is also some interesting players who can go undrafted, while having a head coach who knows how to work with young players...

The next seasons are going to be interesting!
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(05-27-2022, 11:27 PM)F Gump Wrote: I wonder if any of those are available at 6M or less. I'd love to land Looney at that number but suspect he will stay in GS. Drummond maybe? McGee?

Recent history tells us that when you have minutes to offer, you should be able to get the reasonably good, interior-based veteran center who likes your ring-chasing chances. Mavs should certainly be able to offer minutes, assuming Powell is sent packing. In fact, if I'm an agent with a center like that, I'm probably already on the phone to Nico to make sure he knows of the possibility, because the whole world knows the Mavs have a hole to fill.

Adding to the list of potential bigs for tax MLE are Hartenstien and Jalen Smith.  Its unfortunate that we have to make a decision on trading or not trading the pick before we know if we can land any of these guys for the tax MLE.
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IMO, our needs are in the following order and not unreasonably hard to accomplish:

1. Upgrade the starting center - need someone that can rebound, provide rim protection, and won't get killed on the perimeter. Having a passable 3PT shot would be a huge bonus. This would be in addition to keeping Maxi, so if you have to move Maxi to get this or one of the other options done, then you have to replace him so we can have 2 quality bigs for a playoff rotation. 

2. Find one more 3&D wing - I want a total of 3 on the caliber of DFS/Bullock so they aren't forced to play 40+ minutes per night in the playoffs, so similar to #1, this relies on keeping DFS (don't you dare get rid of him) and Bullock or else replacing them while still adding to the number of wings. If you can get Frank and Josh in the gym to take 1000 3PT shots/day this summer, maybe you can even fill this need internally. I have been of the opinion that THJs defense is not as bad as portrayed around here, but I will acknowledge that I don't think it's good enough to meet the standard I want out of this role.

3. Upgrade Dinwiddie - I really like having 3 playmakers where we can have at least 2 on the court at a time. Dinwiddie surprised me this year, but he was very inconsistent in the playoffs, but tbf, maybe having an actual offseason and full regular season with the team would help with this. I also worry about his injury history and if we can rely on him to be healthy at the right time. I don't think it is likely we can upgrade this spot in the offseason with our salary cap and assets, but it's my lowest priority anyway. 

Get #1 and #2 done and at least keep Dinwiddie or get #3 done then you have a very solid 8 man playoff rotation with 3 playmakers, 3 wings, and 2 bigs. We exceeded expectations and made it to the WCF with 3 playmakers, 2 wings, and 1 big this year so adding just this could push us over the top.
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(05-27-2022, 02:46 PM)Not an evil robot Wrote: We're likely going to see Brunson for the next few years so I'm rooting for him, but again in "theory craft" land - I want someone who's more like a +1 OFF, +1 DEF player next to Luka than a +2.5 OFF, -.5 DEF Brunson. That's not to say Brunson isn't talented, but wherever possible I'm solving for synergy with our superstar when it comes to playoffs. That's about the only way to make a Luka + "role players" work at a championship level.

Yea I agree the theory craft optimal lineup with Luka doesn't have an undersized PG on it cause one of his main advantages is getting that playmaking on a bigger body. Maybe something that can be worked towards a few years down the road. Every team's ideal squad is 5 2 way players though. Possible JB eventually moves into like a Ginobili style role if a true 2 way PG is found.

I can see maybe for Turner, but is Christian Wood really going to cost too many assets? His rim protection/post defense is his downfall and he has lower value because of it. Nobody else runs this Mavs defensive system that gets away with Powell at the 5 so I really doubt other teams go hard to outbid for a Wood's expiring. Wood is longer than Powell, blocks more shots, and is a way better rebounder, so just a direct upgrade in every way over Powell. Would Indy turn down Josh Green + 26th pick + salary match for Turner? I definitely don't think Houston is turning that down, they need a young 3&D wing really bad.

I think the main thing to consider is making sure there is a young developing guy that is ready to take over Bullocks role after his contract is done. At least in 2 years, but maybe after 1 more year and he's used as an expiring asset. Maybe Frank is that guy? There probably aren't enough minutes to develop both Frank + Green and Green should have more trade value. Frank further develops this offseason, resigned for another year using early bird rights, then Mavs got full bird rights to resign him to whatever once he's hopefully locked in as the heir to Bullock?

Worth looking at how Frank and Green compare to each other. I'll throw a few guesses.
They both have a very similar build. Similar weight according to nba.com.
Frank is definitely a much better ball handler right now.
Green more of a high flyer, gets alley oops etc.
Green maybe more efficient scoring inside? Frank has moments where he scores by beating guys off the dribble though.
Frank has proven he can hit big shots in the playoffs.

Feels like the Mavs FO is on the right track. Find former lottery picks that were projects and spent their entire rookie deals developing in bad situations, and try to finish their development. Just need to hit on some of them. Players will want to come here to play with Luka.
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For me, the Slovenian olympic team is a model how to play with Luka. You need 3-D wings around him, the more they can put the ball on the floor, the better. They can push the transition, something Mavs don't do for whatever reason. They always look and wait for Luka. Players on Slovenian team are far less skilled but had no problems pushing in transition and it didn't seem to bother Luka at all. I would say Mavs have this position covered ok. Could be better and I think they need another big wing, but it is ok. 

Center is the crucial player, imho. Slovenian team featured Tobey, who was perfect for the role offensively, because he could PnR, PnP or pass from high post when popping. He could also punish smaller defenders. The PnR with Luka just creates a ton of space for the center and Mavs don't really have an option to exploit it on the current roster. Kleber mostly just pops and shoots a three if open, his passing is very suspect. Powells only move is roll to the basket and dunk, which is completely taken away by playoff defense, as we have seen. I think there are two guys in the NBA that fit the described role on center - Wood and Collins. 

Collins is an undersized center but a guy like Kleber would be basically ideal match next to him. Spread the floor and allow Collins to play PnR with Luka. Unfortunately, I don't think there is a way for Mavs to get Collins. Hawks are looking at star trades and Collins will likely be the prize to get that guy. 

I agree with the takes, that Wood value shouldn't be much over 1 FRP, especially if he clearly indicates he wants out. Houston already has 2 FRP in this draft though, but perhaps they can package their #17 and #26 for something higher. I really liked what I saw from Wood in a couple of games against Mavs last season. There are some question marks regarding his personality, work ethic and defense. I have no idea about that, but Mavs probably do.

Rest of centers are starting to deviate from ideal, imho. Turner can play defense, but he doesn't really PnR and his rebounding is questionable. I think Indy will play him as their featured center at least until TDL, unless he cleary indicates he wants out. Holmes can only PnR and doesn't shoot, but he has that nice floater from roughly free point range. Gobert can only PnR, the rest of offense is at Powell level. Vucevic could fill that role offensively, but he is a horrible defender. I think guys like Drummond or McGee can only be useful in regular season. Looney proved to be a fantastic defender, but other than that he would be at Powell level of offense in Mavs system.
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