2021-2022 MAVS NEWS: 4th in West | WCF loss [ARCHIVED]

[omahen]

Post trade, D is routinely bad and the O is consistently better.

Thanks for the analysis. I think it has to be taken into account that samples are small and there is a lot of noise. I think there is some difference in data used. NBA.com has Dallas O/D rating in last four games at 119.1/114.3 - 4th O and 18th D.  I am also not sure why do you think defense is bad in last four games - speaking about the word routinely. Perhaps I don't understand the word correctly. I understand it in a meaning as: routinely bad D = bad D in every game. 

Based on my understanding of the word, I would say that results don't confirm it. Results show that the defense was good against Miami and GSW. It was not that good against Utah and NOP. But in this last case defense was good for three quarters, only later Mavs basically stopped playing due to high advantage - NOP scored 37 points in last quarter. You also have to take into account the shooting - was Utah shooting good because defense was bad or because they hit tough(er) shots? And the opposite with GSW. 

So I can't really say that defense is really any worse than it has been before. There was at least one 4 game stretch in January/February where defense rating was worse than in this last four games. 

I think the THJ and centers conclusions are spot on. I think Mavs have even increased problem of bad contracts based on the role they are playing with the team and have to consolidate very quickly, in the summer at latest as the value of the guys will just continue to plummet. If I separate them in a couple of categories:

DFS, Luka and Brunson are the only one on great contracts - about to change in a couple of months for all of them. I think the new contract of DFS, based on his production and age, is in the "ok" range. I hope we will be able to put same label on Brunson new deal. Luka is untouchable in any case. I think the only sense with Brunson is here to stay as his trade value is low due to his UFA status. 

I agree best role for both Powell and Maxi is the third big on a contender. Based on this their salary is ok - the problem is Mavs have two "third bigs" while in reality they only need one and a cheaper fourth big. The goal should be to upgrade one to a legit starter. 

I think both THJ and SD contracts can be ok if they can play enough minutes. Problem is, there is only enough minutes for three out of Luka, JB, SD and THJ. I agree THJ should be the odd man out. I hope they can convince someone he is a viable starter or 6th man - in that case his salary is ok.

DFS and Bullock are good wings and Bullock salary is ok. However, both are more of a fifth starter type. 

Burke, Brown (why did they even sign him???) and Bobi are all overpaid. Should be vet min - difficult to get value for them. 

Green is an interesting dilemma. Right now he is ok for that 15 minute per night role. But is there a role for him long term? Paying another guy 10 per just to be a 15 minutes per game reserve is another bad contract on the team. Reducing minutes of SD or JB doesn't make much sense because they are not on ok contracts anymore if you do so. Can he provide more production than any of SD or JB?

Bertans is bad contract. He is playing a role of a specialist like Forbes and I just don't see how his role could increase or how would anyone really see him as something more. Forbes is paid 4,5 million. 

FN and Chriss have good contracts for the role they are playing. 

Here are the ranks of Mavs as I see the team should be constructed and where current players fit:
Starter 1 Primary creator: Luka
Starter 2 (shooter, secondary creator): Brunson or SD
Starter 3 (3-D wing): Bullock or DFS (but not both)
Starter 4 (big wing, 3-D, secondary creator): none
Starter 5 (center): none
6th man: Brunson or SD
shooting spark: THJ or Bertans (both greatly overpaid for this role)
3rd big: Powell or Kleber (but not both)
4th guard: Green (as long he is on the rookie contract, probably too expensive afterwards)
4th big: Chriss
5th guard/wing: FN or Brown (Brown overpaid for this role)
3rd PG: Burke (overpaid for the role)
deep bench: FN, Brown, Burke, Bobi

I think Mavs need to upgrade one wing and one center to come into contender conversations. THJ, one of Powell/Kleber and one of DFS/Bullock are most suitable contracts to get the deals done. Bullock (or perhaps THJ) for Holmes is one very natural possibility for both sides. Problem is, can we convert the rest and the assets into the big wing we need? The good thing is that we can sort of sell the "Robin" position to our targets now since KP is gone.