01-08-2022, 10:52 AM
I thought I'd tool around some stats to see if I could find any obvious explanations for how the season has gone thus far. To recap at a high level.
We were 4-2 in October, but everyone's stats look horrible because of blowout losses to ATL and DEN. The four wins were against teams we should have beat.
November was 6-7. Most of the losses were understandable...MIA, @ CHI, @ PHO, @ PHO, @ LAC, WAS, CLE. We beat teams we should beat including wins against BOS, DEN and LAC that seem less impressive now than they did at the time.
I'll call the period from December til now BC, the Bullock Common era. 12/1 was when Bullock got his first start. We are 11/9 since then, but there is a six game 2-4 stretch where we had as many hardship players as NBA players. The losses were to LAL, MIN, MIL and UTA, something you'd expect if you are missing a bunch of players (we didn't have KP or Luka for the MIN and MIL losses). Take out the Covid games and we are 9-5 in the BC era...a pace of 53 wins across 82 games.
We've had all five of Luka, KP, Powell, RB and DFS available for four games in the BC era (all in early December) and we are 2-2 in those games. The wins were NOP and MEM and the losses were NOP and INDY (now that's embarrassing). Either Luka or KP have been out the remaining 16 games of the BC era. Both of them missed four of those 16 games (2-2 in those games). BTW, RB hasn't started all of the games since 12/1. He moved to the bench in favor of Brunson starting the first three games in January. He started again last night with both KP and Luka out. Harper made a comment last night about having six starters (KP/Powell/DFS/RB/Brunson/Luka). It will be interesting to see who sits if we ever get all six available in the same game.
It is kind of crazy that a 44 win pace through almost half the season is good enough for fifth in the west. We don't have many quality wins, but for the most part we've beaten the teams we should beat. Kamm posted a chart of our D-Rating the other day. It shows stabilization starting at the beginning of December and a ton of improvement once we got people back from the hardship games. As I look at individual performance, it is hard to find any single key to what is going on.
If you think Bullock suddenly found his shot once he began starting, you'd be wrong. That only started when he came back from Covid (he's hitting 48% since returning). From the time he hit the starting lineup until he went out with Covid, he was only hitting 27.5% of his 3's.
If you think there was some awakening from KP at the beginning of December, you'd be wrong. His splits for minutes, points, rebounds and assists are very similar month to month. But the Team was +11.9 when he played in December and -2.6 when he played in November. He also shot better in November.
Brunson actually had a nice uptick in December when it was the Brunson/KP show. He's actually not been very good statistically in the four games in January (three of which he started with Luka).
Powell's Usage is up in Dec/Jan compared to November. At his efficiency, that is a good thing. His floor time with KP showed great improvement in December compared to the prior months (Net Rating of 15.9 and D-Rating of 100.9). But, I don't know that there is enough there to say anything more than it is nice that KP/Powell started to figure things out some.
THJ has been more efficient off the bench that he was prior to 12/1. The teams O and D ratings have been much better since this move was made.
Luka has played 8 of the 20 games since 12/1...what? His TS% moved up dramatically from October to November to December (.576 in December is normal for Luka). But, he hasn't shot well in the three wins in January. The other interesting thing is his assists are going up each month...from 7.5 to 8.7 to 9.2 to 11.0. That is encouraging. How many guys said something last night about coach is trying to get them to "play right" and share the ball and push the pace a little more. This is the antithesis of Luka's walk it up and dominate the ball style. Less Hardin and more Magic would go a long way in helping team success.
One interesting nugget in all of this. JG has finally started getting some minutes in the BC era. He played seven minutes or less in 10 of the games since 12/1. We are 3-7 in those games. He's played 10 minutes or more in the other 10 games since 12/1. We are 8-2 in those games. Josh has an On Court of 11.7 and an On-Off of 11.4 for the season. That leads all regulars. The offense works when he's in the game (despite his lack of a three point shot) and the D has been fantastic with him. His usage has been going up steadily and he's been over 60% in TS% since 12/1. We need more of this please. Kidd has brought him along slowly and that is fine, but he has to play now in order to be trusted come the playoffs. I think this is one of the more important things to keep any eye on. Way down the line from who starts when everyone is healthy and how do the KP and Luka minutes look when both are playing...but important nonetheless.
We were 4-2 in October, but everyone's stats look horrible because of blowout losses to ATL and DEN. The four wins were against teams we should have beat.
November was 6-7. Most of the losses were understandable...MIA, @ CHI, @ PHO, @ PHO, @ LAC, WAS, CLE. We beat teams we should beat including wins against BOS, DEN and LAC that seem less impressive now than they did at the time.
I'll call the period from December til now BC, the Bullock Common era. 12/1 was when Bullock got his first start. We are 11/9 since then, but there is a six game 2-4 stretch where we had as many hardship players as NBA players. The losses were to LAL, MIN, MIL and UTA, something you'd expect if you are missing a bunch of players (we didn't have KP or Luka for the MIN and MIL losses). Take out the Covid games and we are 9-5 in the BC era...a pace of 53 wins across 82 games.
We've had all five of Luka, KP, Powell, RB and DFS available for four games in the BC era (all in early December) and we are 2-2 in those games. The wins were NOP and MEM and the losses were NOP and INDY (now that's embarrassing). Either Luka or KP have been out the remaining 16 games of the BC era. Both of them missed four of those 16 games (2-2 in those games). BTW, RB hasn't started all of the games since 12/1. He moved to the bench in favor of Brunson starting the first three games in January. He started again last night with both KP and Luka out. Harper made a comment last night about having six starters (KP/Powell/DFS/RB/Brunson/Luka). It will be interesting to see who sits if we ever get all six available in the same game.
It is kind of crazy that a 44 win pace through almost half the season is good enough for fifth in the west. We don't have many quality wins, but for the most part we've beaten the teams we should beat. Kamm posted a chart of our D-Rating the other day. It shows stabilization starting at the beginning of December and a ton of improvement once we got people back from the hardship games. As I look at individual performance, it is hard to find any single key to what is going on.
If you think Bullock suddenly found his shot once he began starting, you'd be wrong. That only started when he came back from Covid (he's hitting 48% since returning). From the time he hit the starting lineup until he went out with Covid, he was only hitting 27.5% of his 3's.
If you think there was some awakening from KP at the beginning of December, you'd be wrong. His splits for minutes, points, rebounds and assists are very similar month to month. But the Team was +11.9 when he played in December and -2.6 when he played in November. He also shot better in November.
Brunson actually had a nice uptick in December when it was the Brunson/KP show. He's actually not been very good statistically in the four games in January (three of which he started with Luka).
Powell's Usage is up in Dec/Jan compared to November. At his efficiency, that is a good thing. His floor time with KP showed great improvement in December compared to the prior months (Net Rating of 15.9 and D-Rating of 100.9). But, I don't know that there is enough there to say anything more than it is nice that KP/Powell started to figure things out some.
THJ has been more efficient off the bench that he was prior to 12/1. The teams O and D ratings have been much better since this move was made.
Luka has played 8 of the 20 games since 12/1...what? His TS% moved up dramatically from October to November to December (.576 in December is normal for Luka). But, he hasn't shot well in the three wins in January. The other interesting thing is his assists are going up each month...from 7.5 to 8.7 to 9.2 to 11.0. That is encouraging. How many guys said something last night about coach is trying to get them to "play right" and share the ball and push the pace a little more. This is the antithesis of Luka's walk it up and dominate the ball style. Less Hardin and more Magic would go a long way in helping team success.
One interesting nugget in all of this. JG has finally started getting some minutes in the BC era. He played seven minutes or less in 10 of the games since 12/1. We are 3-7 in those games. He's played 10 minutes or more in the other 10 games since 12/1. We are 8-2 in those games. Josh has an On Court of 11.7 and an On-Off of 11.4 for the season. That leads all regulars. The offense works when he's in the game (despite his lack of a three point shot) and the D has been fantastic with him. His usage has been going up steadily and he's been over 60% in TS% since 12/1. We need more of this please. Kidd has brought him along slowly and that is fine, but he has to play now in order to be trusted come the playoffs. I think this is one of the more important things to keep any eye on. Way down the line from who starts when everyone is healthy and how do the KP and Luka minutes look when both are playing...but important nonetheless.
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