01-06-2022, 08:21 PM
(01-06-2022, 07:14 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Just to be clear, we are both picking the stat set that most closely reflects our own eye test. It is probably good that we have narrowed in on the two stats that surveyed the best. It is also probably good that we are trying to marry eye-test and stats. But we are probably still dabbling in created truth (which we once called opinion).
I'm not sure a reasonable eye test would agree that KP at 4.3 (7th best in the league) is 145-percent more valuable than Luka at 1.76 (143rd in the league behind Mike Muscala). At least EPM treats them as equals (BTW, I really like the way EPM gives a raw number and a percentile).
Lebron has Powell as a better defender than Bullock? Maybe so, Powell has the better D-Rating, DBPM and D-Win Score, but my eye test would have picked Bullock (like EPM did) as the better defender.
I can't buy into Powell's O-Lebron of -1.22 at all. Powell has the best O-Rating of the entire team. His O-Win Score is second behind Brunson and once again this season he has the highest TS% (and the highest 3% among regulars). Powell in the 71st percentile offensively at EPM makes much more sense to me than whatever percentile a -1.22 Lebron gets you.
One thing that is important to point out is that when assessing these stats to the eye test, I am not just using this year. For example EPM has Powell ranked better defensively than Bullock in most years (and have them basically even this season). Honestly both metrics rate Powell higher defensively than the eye test warrants. I still have not figure out why that is. Maybe he just looks useless but his size and positional knowledge means he impacts the game better than it looks? As far as defense goes, in what universe is Luka above average in defense this season?
Also, TS% is not that important of a stat for somebody who only takes a few shots a game (mostly dunks). What Lebron is saying is that when he is on the floor the offense suffers, and I think a lot of us believe that meets the eye test. Part of it is not his fault as some of it is due to the dysfunction of KP trying to post up with Powell on the floor.
The KP love does seem a little over the top. He has been screaming up the EPM metric as well. Part of this (and the discrepancies in general) are due to the limited sample of this partial season. They will likely merge closer together as the sample grows.