2021-2022 MAVS NEWS: 4th in West | WCF loss [ARCHIVED]

[DanSchwartzgan]

The other really highly respected advanced stat is Lebron.  For me this is the metric that most meets the "eye test".  It has similar results as EPM with a few key exceptions:

It is more down on Luka defense (below average)
It is more down on Powell overall (below average, this is probably the biggest difference)
It is higher on Brunson (clearly third best player with DFS being forth)
It is higher on Frank and Green (average)

According to this metric the below average specialists are Powell, Bullock and Sterling, and according to both metrics THJ is overpaid.

Just to be clear, we are both picking the stat set that most closely reflects our own eye test.  It is probably good that we have narrowed in on the two stats that surveyed the best.  It is also probably good that we are trying to marry eye-test and stats.  But we are probably still dabbling in created truth (which we once called opinion).

I'm not sure a reasonable eye test would agree that KP at 4.3 (7th best in the league) is 145-percent more valuable than Luka at 1.76 (143rd in the league behind Mike Muscala).  At least EPM treats them as equals (BTW, I really like the way EPM gives a raw number and a percentile).  

Lebron has Powell as a better defender than Bullock?  Maybe so, Powell has the better D-Rating, DBPM and D-Win Score, but my eye test would have picked Bullock (like EPM did) as the better defender.  

I can't buy into Powell's O-Lebron of -1.22 at all.  Powell has the best O-Rating of the entire team.  His O-Win Score is second behind Brunson and once again this season he has the highest TS% (and the highest 3% among regulars  ).  Powell in the 71st percentile offensively at EPM makes much more sense to me than whatever percentile a -1.22 Lebron gets you.