2021-2022 MAVS NEWS: 4th in West | WCF loss [ARCHIVED]

[mvossman]

Post of the week IMHO.

I'm going to continue to beat the drum that it is impossible to know how good the Luka/KP combo is USING FULL SEASON NUMBERS.  The first few weeks were that bad.  There is evidence of substantial improvement and they haven't played even a minute together since this big improvement in D began around 12/12.  It is the stuff that I "know" with certainty that is often the most wrong.

People have been touting Estimated +/- (EPM) as an analysis that teams think is a good one.  I thought I'd share their updated numbers ranked by D-EPM as a means of determining where we stand in terms of offensive/defensive balance is with our top 11 guys.  The format will be:

D-EPM   Player Name  (O-EPM, Overall EPM).


78th   Green (25th, 42nd)
77th   Maxi (40th, 54th)
75th   DFS (70th, 76th)
75th   KP  (95th, 94th)
73rd   Bullock (16th, 32nd)
71st   Luka (94th, 94th)
67th   Powell (71st, 73rd)
54th   Frank (32nd, 37th)

40th   THJ (70th, 62nd)
39th   SBrown (29th, 28th)
17th   Brunson (90th, 75th)

On the 6th best D, no single player is in the 80th percentile or higher, but seven guys are in the top third of the league (Team D).  

We have two players in the 90's in terms of overall EPM in Luka and KP.  There are three in the 70's overall in DFS, Brunson and Powell.   

After that, Maxi and THJ are your above average (overall) specialists.  Maxi better on D and THJ better on O (despite being down on all of his offensive numbers compared to career and Dallas averages).  If I were trying to do something (outside of the next Sammie Superstar chase), I'd look at the below average (overall) specialists including Bullock, Frank and Sterling (Green shows two NBA ready skills and is young, I would NOT trade him based on this analysis).   

The other really highly respected advanced stat is Lebron.  For me this is the metric that most meets the "eye test".  It has similar results as EPM with a few key exceptions:

It is more down on Luka defense (below average)
It is more down on Powell overall (below average, this is probably the biggest difference)
It is higher on Brunson (clearly third best player with DFS being forth)
It is higher on Frank and Green (average)

According to this metric the below average specialists are Powell, Bullock and Sterling, and according to both metrics THJ is overpaid.