01-01-2022, 02:20 PM
(01-01-2022, 02:03 PM)BackToSquareOne Wrote: My point was that stats are typically hard(ish) and wins-x-losses is also one of those stats and not some touchstone that one can turn to when one is confronted with a different stat (whether or not that stat is telling one something).
(For what it's worth the Mavs "expected" win %ages against teams with those winning percentages are 51.7% and 41.3%.*)
But, as ever, the same sizes are tiny and there is a huge amount of texture not accounted for either in brute win-x-loss or in adjusting it for strength of schedule. (E.g., I certainly didn't take home-away records into account, which is a known factor, and so on.)
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* See, eg, https://sabr.org/journal/article/probabi...-matchups/
Thanks for the info and finding the article, BTSO. I didn't think your comments about winning percentages were hate-motivated at all, that's why I said I wasn't referring to you in particular. Agree that W-L record is subject to some of the same vagaries of chance that other stats are. Just trying to bring back the focus to the point that the goal in a season (normally) is to win games, not to accumulate the highest possible net rating (although that may actually occur as an incident of trying to win).