2021-2022 MAVS NEWS: 4th in West | WCF loss [ARCHIVED]

[SleepingHero]

A few observations from these numbers coupled with my eye test over 35 games...

I feel like you go a step too far with your observations of +/- sometimes. It's a useful but limited stat that is too noisy to ever gain something useful from unless we're 75% through the season.

For instance:

1) JB has been the engine behind any offensive success this season. 

Brunson has 100% taken his offensive game to another level this season. He's looked more comfortable than ever and his hitting his shots consistently. But to say he's been the engine of any offensive success this season is a step too far for me. We've seen countless times while Luka has been out where the offense has died under Brunson because he's still flawed. Especially against good teams. He feasts against teams like the Kings. He struggles when it comes to next level plays when it comes to teams like the Jazz. 

Luka has and will always be the engine of the offense whenever he's on the court. 

2) JG & FN (as well as TB interestingly) have vastly improved the perimeter D when they play (and thereby the whole D). Without them the Mavs D falls apart. 

Green and Frank are showing their chops as reliable perimeter defenders this season. I don't think the defense has "fallen apart" because they haven't been on the court. This is less egregious than the Brunson comment, but still too grandiose for me. 

3) In the last 10 games without Luka, KP has had an astonishing +19.4 On/Off (+15.6 O, +3.8 D) and has seemingly been key in most of the team's success. 

The team is running through KP while Luka has been out and it's been working. But this has always been the trend. Whenever Luka sits KP shines more often than not. I think there's something to take here and I hope Kidd can integrate this kind of KP with Luka. So far neither RC nor Kidd has been able to consistently get the best out of both of them on the court at the same time. 

4) In that same period JB has been -5.8, a huge dropoff from when Luka was around. The team is still +5.3 when JB plays though during these last 10 games.

Again I think it's probably too early to draw any conclusions from this. Luka was hobbled for 5 games before he sat and before that was in less optimal shape. Luka and Brunson historically have been slightly above average when sharing the court for the last 2 years. 

5) In that same period THJ has been +9.9, a huge improvement from before Luka went out. The team has been awful when Luka and THJ share the court this year.

I think there is something here when you couple this along with all the other stats that THJ is hurting this team bad. Brunson has made a very compelling case that he should start when THJ returns. 

6) I am still just blown away at the lack of consistent team success when Luka has played this year. The team has been outscored -5.5 when he has been on the court....and has outscored the opponent +5.3 when he hasn't played. The team has been fundamentally more successful in outscoring its opponents when Luka isn't playing AND that includes the stretch of games with no Luka when the strength of schedule has been quite difficult (moreso than in the games Luka has played this year).

Again see above. It's too noisy. Luka is by far and away our best player and the Mavs being outscored while he's on the court isn't an indictment on him when he's carrying the team night in and out and other guys are obviously not pulling their weight.