ARTICLES & PODS: ROSTER OVERHAUL NEEDED

[Mavs2021]

He had the toughest matchup but gave up 65% from the field against Kawhi. 50% against PG (17/34). Eight 3s and 12 additional FTA. DFS is probably the Mavs best perimeter defender but just like in 2020 bigger and stronger wings bullied him. Sucks that Kleber wasn´t healthy. In 2020 he was getting torched as well but at least forced them to take contested jumpers instead of layups.

Just looking at the matchup data THJ and Luka actually did a better job against the Clippers duo. Especially Luka.

PG against:
DFS 17/34 FG 8/19 3s 11/12 FT, 7tov
THJ 11/20 FG 3/8 3s 4/4FT, 4tov
Doncic 2/8 FG 0/2 3s 4/5 FT, 1tov

Kawhi against:
Kleber 22/36 FG 6/14 3s 15/17 FT, 4tov
DFS 17/26 FG, 4/9 3s 6/7 FT, 6tov
THJ 9/17 FG 2/5 3s 2/2 FT, 3tov
Doncic 7/16 FG 3/7 3s 4/4 FT, 1tov

Conclusion. Sample size to small. Not to mention that it is nearly impossible to evaluate individual defense in the broken Mavs scheme against the Clippers. But I don´t think that DFS deserves special consideration for his attempts to play defense.
The slower and more iso heavy half court offense in the playoffs really helps Luka on defense. Was the same last season. He has the size and strength to keep up with bigger wings. Really hope that the new coaching staff can build on that.

Yeah defense against elite players is a team effort. Not DFS fault that Carlisle doesn´t scheme double teams or the others are too lazy/unfit to execute some help defense.

Dorian was the only Maverick besides Doncic that showed up for game seven, but the moronic coaching to play Kawhi 1-on-1 until down 10 with a minute to play, while the Clippers doubled Luka was ultimately the differene-maker.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I think people are being naïve here.  Roster building is purely about opportunity.  You cant make a star free agent sign with you or draft a star if you don't have the picks.  Mavs wanted to make certain moves but luck was against them.  Donnie wanted to sign Crowder and he wanted to draft Haliburton, he wanted a shot at Giannis.  None of these things happened due to luck.  The reason why Nico is so popular is not because he is such a cool guy or popular.  The reason is that players would gravitate towards him hoping to get more money from Nike.  Often they make more money on ads than their salaries, so obviously players like Lillard would kiss his a$$ in order to make more money.  Hopefully free agents choose Dallas in hopes that Nico will hook them up with more Nike money.  That's why its possible that someone like Leonard will choose Dallas over LA.

Why would Leonard leave New Balance to join Nike?  Or Lillard leaves Adidas?   More money?   Maybe he likes New Balance.  Just asking...

[mavsluvr]

Big question: Are Nico and Fin able to address the need for a consistant roster building philosophy? Are they able to come up with the kind of vision and then plan that are needed?

Good question. 


I heard a discussion on Nico's strengths in one of the other pods, as well as areas where he will have a learning curve. Sorry, I can't remember which pod. But it quoted Nico as having said he is not a talent evaluator. To the extent that he has dealt with talent, it has been almost exclusively at the star level, and he has no experience putting together a roster and knowing who guys 4-15 should be. His hiring was viewed by a number of commentators as reflecting a doubling down on the team's effort to attract star free agents, rather than an attempt to get a guy who is experienced at putting together rosters. 

Whether Fin could help in that regard remains TBD. His only front office experience is with Cuban and Donnie. Will he aggressively assert himself with a vision of his own? I don't know. I am still a little puzzled by the reported story that the scouts wanted to draft Saddiq Bey, but were overruled by Bob and his spreadsheets. If Finley was running the draft, how did that happen? Maybe he thought he had to do what Bob wanted? 

Speaking of Bob, is he still there? If he is, presumably he and his numbers will be a strong voice, for better or for worse. 

The organization, as far as we know, is going to retain Keith Grant (the capologist), and maybe whoever else has been involved in roster decisions. 

Perhaps you might say, in response to this detailing of lack of experience, that I am talking about ability to execute a plan, and you are asking about the development of the plan. We know that isn't what Nico did, and he may need some time to climb the learning curve. Fin was evidently a part of the group that operated on the non-plans that have been ongoing. 

I actually have a little hope that Kidd might be able to be instrumental in developing something new. That is not his direct experience, but as a HOF point guard, he presumably has a feel for what is needed up and down the roster to play a certain way. I am somewhat discouraged by the fact that he failed in keeping up-to-date at his previous HC stops, but it is very possible he learned a lot about that at the Lakers. Mainly, he seems to have enough of an alpha personality to assertively pursue his objectives. I don't think he'll directly buck Cubes until he is ready to leave -- after all, Cuban is his boss. But I think he would not be hesitant to bring his powers of persuasion to bear. 

TL;DR    We don't have much evidence to inspire confidence. Might have to base our hopes on a wing and a prayer to start out. Maybe it won't happen all at once, but these guys should be good learners, if they are permitted to do their jobs.

[ItsGoTime]

Is it cheapness or an inability to get players to sign on the dotted line.  We've gone after some good names the last two years, but they pick teams that are more clearly contenders or we don't offer the years they want because we are saving up for Sammy Superstar.

I don’t think one is all that related to the other in our case. If Mark was willing to spend over the cap as long as (and ONLY as long as) we had the superstars in place, then failing to sign the superstars isn’t the issue. 


A couple things:

- It took him WAY too long to come to the realization (if he actually did…) that Donnie wasn’t the guy to execute that plan. We’re into year 10 of trying this (not just the last 2 years). That is WAY too long to waste on a team with aging Dirk and budding to quickly blooming superstar Luka.

- We weren’t a more attractive destination as better contenders because we went after the superstars and big names (grand slam and home run names) and failed. Had we gone the route of getting solid upgrades (walks, singles, doubles and triples) every year. There were a lot of highly contributing players that got snatched up while we were waiting. However, we couldn’t help ourselves for 10 years.

https://tenor.com/ba9qW.gif

We are where we are, and I hope we are in a better place. Time will tell.

[fifteenth]

Good question. 


I heard a discussion on Nico's strengths in one of the other pods, as well as areas where he will have a learning curve. Sorry, I can't remember which pod. But it quoted Nico as having said he is not a talent evaluator. To the extent that he has dealt with talent, it has been almost exclusively at the star level, and he has no experience putting together a roster and knowing who guys 4-15 should be. His hiring was viewed by a number of commentators as reflecting a doubling down on the team's effort to attract star free agents, rather than an attempt to get a guy who is experienced at putting together rosters. 

Whether Fin could help in that regard remains TBD. His only front office experience is with Cuban and Donnie. Will he aggressively assert himself with a vision of his own? I don't know. I am still a little puzzled by the reported story that the scouts wanted to draft Saddiq Bey, but were overruled by Bob and his spreadsheets. If Finley was running the draft, how did that happen? Maybe he thought he had to do what Bob wanted? 

Speaking of Bob, is he still there? If he is, presumably he and his numbers will be a strong voice, for better or for worse. 

The organization, as far as we know, is going to retain Keith Grant (the capologist), and maybe whoever else has been involved in roster decisions. 

Perhaps you might say, in response to this detailing of lack of experience, that I am talking about ability to execute a plan, and you are asking about the development of the plan. We know that isn't what Nico did, and he may need some time to climb the learning curve. Fin was evidently a part of the group that operated on the non-plans that have been ongoing. 

I actually have a little hope that Kidd might be able to be instrumental in developing something new. That is not his direct experience, but as a HOF point guard, he presumably has a feel for what is needed up and down the roster to play a certain way. I am somewhat discouraged by the fact that he failed in keeping up-to-date at his previous HC stops, but it is very possible he learned a lot about that at the Lakers. Mainly, he seems to have enough of an alpha personality to assertively pursue his objectives. I don't think he'll directly buck Cubes until he is ready to leave -- after all, Cuban is his boss. But I think he would not be hesitant to bring his powers of persuasion to bear. 

TL;DR    We don't have much evidence to inspire confidence. Might have to base our hopes on a wing and a prayer to start out. Maybe it won't happen all at once, but these guys should be good learners, if they are permitted to do their jobs.

Based on all of this my guess is that the Mavs still lack a team/roster builder. If that's the case I think they'll continue to be subject to team building via Cuban's reactionary measures.

[mavsluvr]

Based on all of this my guess is that the Mavs still lack a team/roster builder. If that's the case I think they'll continue to be subject to team building via Cuban's reactionary measures.

Looking on the bright side, it has also occurred to me that if Nico really is effective at recruiting a couple of stars/near-stars to Dallas, some of the roster issues might sort themselves out, as the other players slide into more limited roles. Maybe? At least pending the development and implementation of a plan?

[omahen]

Looking on the bright side, it has also occurred to me that if Nico really is effective at recruiting a couple of stars/near-stars to Dallas, some of the roster issues might sort themselves out, as the other players slide into more limited roles. Maybe? At least pending the development and implementation of a plan?

For me it is quite simple. Nico (and Kidd) was brought in as a recruiter. So I expect him to recruit good players flocking around Luka at reasonable salaries to win a ring with him. 

Signing DeRozan for 28 mil and a couple of average guys for remaining money is not really an achievement for a recruiter. Example...

[mavsluvr]

While it doesn't really help to remake the roster at the moment, my belief is that a huge part of the Mavs issues stem from the fact that their franchise's ability in player evaluation and player development has been anemic. And that's probably because Cuban decided early on that he wanted to build a faster way, through trades (players already developed by other teams) rather than by the hard slow work of sifting through prospects, developing an eye for potential, drafting smartly, scouring the GL and end of rosters for overlooked prospects, and then figuring out how to mold that potential into an NBAer.

I was reading some stuff on this the last few days. According to the report, teams historically get stars by drafting and developing them or by trading for them. Transfers in free agency make splashes, but are the least common way that stars go from one team to another. 


As you note, Cuban decided long ago that he wanted to rely on the free agency route. It would be like him to want to do something counterintuitive. And by all appearances, he is digging in his heels on that approach, hiring Nico, who has some relationships with stars, and Kidd, whom he views as a "relationship guy."

There might be a reason why other teams don't rely on free agency to get stars. Or, it might be that Mark is applying his philosophy that it doesn't matter how many guys he misses out on, as long as hits on someone at some point. That might have been at least logical in years where the team had little talent anyway, but now with Luka, there could be a big cost to just missing out a few more years. 

It might be hard to shift to a trade-based philosophy right away, since they don't have the assets to appeal to a team that needs to unload a star and rebuild. He needs to build up a clutch of draft picks and promising young players for that, but it's difficult to switch to that midstream, when they're trying to contend now. 

Long story short, I agree that the strategy of depending heavily on free agency to acquire a star is dubious. It has failed for ten years. But, I think they're going all in on it, at least for now.

[mavsluvr]

For me it is quite simple. Nico (and Kidd) was brought in as a recruiter. So I expect him to recruit good players flocking around Luka at reasonable salaries to win a ring with him.

Hope springs eternal!

[Scott41theMavs]

For me it is quite simple. Nico (and Kidd) was brought in as a recruiter. So I expect him to recruit good players flocking around Luka at reasonable salaries to win a ring with him. 

Signing DeRozan for 28 mil and a couple of average guys for remaining money is not really an achievement for a recruiter. Example...

I said in the free agency thread that getting Derozan means we whiffed on the better players we were or should have been targeting - Kawhi, CP3, Collins, Ball, Holmes, Allen, or Conley. By our old standards, he'd be a win. Since they're all in on recruiting, they *must* be successful on that front. That's how evaluation works - if you say, "I'm going all in on this, and it's my greatest strength," then that's where you'd better succeed.

[Scott41theMavs]

I was reading some stuff on this the last few days. According to the report, teams historically get stars by drafting and developing them or by trading for them. Transfers in free agency make splashes, but are the least common way that stars go from one team to another. 


As you note, Cuban decided long ago that he wanted to rely on the free agency route. It would be like him to want to do something counterintuitive. And by all appearances, he is digging in his heels on that approach, hiring Nico, who has some relationships with stars, and Kidd, whom he views as a "relationship guy."

There might be a reason why other teams don't rely on free agency to get stars. Or, it might be that Mark is applying his philosophy that it doesn't matter how many guys he misses out on, as long as hits on someone at some point. That might have been at least logical in years where the team had little talent anyway, but now with Luka, there could be a big cost to just missing out a few more years. 

It might be hard to shift to a trade-based philosophy right away, since they don't have the assets to appeal to a team that needs to unload a star and rebuild. He needs to build up a clutch of draft picks and promising young players for that, but it's difficult to switch to that midstream, when they're trying to contend now. 

Long story short, I agree that the strategy of depending heavily on free agency to acquire a star is dubious. It has failed for ten years. But, I think they're going all in on it, at least for now.

Trading used to be their greatest strength. They had a cupboard full of assets gathered by Nellie Sr., and went to town with Mark's willingness to overspend. Since our talent evaluation has stunk for more than 15 years (aside from "Luka good" and lucking into Brunson good too by virtue of Carlisle's friendship with Rick Brunson, let's be honest), we no longer have the assets to trade. 

They need to fix that, and fix the "farm program," because in this day and age, a big part of recruiting is guys who request trades - and then you can go after them through their agents (i.e., tampering, which 2019 taught us is 100% legal as long as you aren't completely stupid about it). But you have to have assets to make those trades.

[Kammrath]

talent evaluation has stunk for more than 15 years (aside from "Luka good" and lucking into Brunson good too by virtue of Carlisle's friendship with Rick Brunson, let's be honest), we no longer have the assets to trade.

I am becoming more convinced the more I ponder stuff that Donnie and RC did not have generally good eyes for talent. 

Luka is one of the sole exceptions and I think I saw a report that Voulgaris was already advising at that time (in some form or fashion) and was pushing for Luka (though I don't doubt Donnie wanted Luka as well). 

In the RC era their best draft picks outside of Luka and JB (which I think you are right to identify as "luck") were the ones they drafted on behalf of OTHER teams. 

"Eye for talent" is the area the Mavs need to improve the most in...I am hopeful that things are about to get much better. But time will tell.

[F Gump]

Long story short, I agree that the strategy of depending heavily on free agency to acquire a star is dubious. It has failed for ten years. But, I think they're going all in on it, at least for now.

I have no issue with the Mavs trying to land a top star in free agency. (The only players that really make sense cap-wise in free agency tend to be the top stars who are worth way more than the max, and the overlooked good quality middle-tier players in the cases where they can be landed for MLE or less.)

Where I part company with Cuban is the apparent insistence that it's not really necessary to be experts at evaluating and developing talent. That's an alternate way to acquire talent, and typically much cheaper (since you get them before others know they are valuable) -- and it also gives another avenue to find a star other than luck in free agency.

It's hard work, not a short cut that caters to instant gratification. And it likely requires letting go of the reins, and moving to the background out of the way, to get the services of a true master.

Instead, they went the opposite direction and hired a guy who knows nothing about evaluation, development, cap management, or roster building, reducing their expertise even more. It shouldn't be a surprise that Cuban doubled down on his ability to do it his own way with him making the calls and setting the course and even less voices to contend with - but I was hoping for better.

[dirkfansince1998]

I am becoming more convinced the more I ponder stuff that Donnie and RC did not have generally good eyes for talent. 

Luka is one of the sole exceptions and I think I saw a report that Voulgaris was already advising at that time (in some form or fashion) and was pushing for Luka (though I don't doubt Donnie wanted Luka as well). 

In the RC era their best draft picks outside of Luka and JB (which I think you are right to identify as "luck") were the ones they drafted on behalf of OTHER teams. 

"Eye for talent" is the area the Mavs need to improve the most in...I am hopeful that things are about to get much better. But time will tell.

As far as we know Voulgaris was the one that screwed up the 2020 draft (although there is obviously still hope for some improvement). Donnie for all of his mistakes gets the credit for picking Luka. Just like in Giannis case he established connections with the family when Luka was a teenager and was all over him from the very beginning. That was his one strength. He knew a lot about european basketball and had a good scouting network. Not sure who is responsible for the undrafted guys but the Mavs have done a solid job in that department as well.

I think the biggest problem was not valuing the draft. Trading picks for veteran rentals. Using late 2nd round picks as PR stunts. In some years it felt like the Mavs did not even scout the available first round options. Expected to trade the pick or traded down and picked the guy with the best measurables or combine numbers.
I think not picking the right guys was more about not valuing the draft. Trading away draft picks for veteran rentals.

Perfect example for the lack of youth development and scouting. The "Texas Legends". Cannot really call it a development team. Other teams like the Jazz and Heat do a much better job. Main team and affiliate play similar schemes. Follow the same philosophy. The Legends are just another team in jerseys that resemble the Mavs ones. One of the worst g-league teams since they became the Mavs affiliate. They won the D-league finals in their last season in Colorado. In 2010 they moved to Frisco and became the Mavs affiliate. Only had two winning seasons in the Frisco era. Only two playoff appearances (lost in the first round twice). Instead of a development program we saw more PR stunts. Comeback of a nearly 40 year old Greg Ostertag. International jersey sellers like Yi Jianlian.

To sum it up. It can only get better...

[F Gump]

I am becoming more convinced the more I ponder stuff that Donnie and RC did not have generally good eyes for talent. 

Luka is one of the sole exceptions and I think I saw a report that Voulgaris was already advising at that time (in some form or fashion) and was pushing for Luka (though I don't doubt Donnie wanted Luka as well). 

In the RC era their best draft picks outside of Luka and JB (which I think you are right to identify as "luck") were the ones they drafted on behalf of OTHER teams. 

"Eye for talent" is the area the Mavs need to improve the most in...I am hopeful that things are about to get much better. But time will tell.

It's hard to say whether the problem was (a) the eye for talent of Donnie, TC, or both, (b) the development setup to turn potential into reality, or © the willingness of the upper-est management to allocate resources (ie, roster space, scouting dollars, skills teachers, and more) to create a pipeline of talent. But there's no question that such things haven't been better than other NBA teams, and it's on Cuban that he's let it languish so long.

I'm not convinced he has really changed that, however. It's not like he's replaced Donnie and RC with guys who are known to have a better eye for talent, or understanding and plan for development. Nico is clueless, and a babe in the woods in such matters - and who is here to teach him? Cuban? There's no Riley or West or Ujiri or Pop/Buford here that's been doing this forever with excellence.

On the idea that Bob was the one who found Luka and got him to Dallas, that's just nonsense. Luka was Donnie's baby from back long before Bob was around; Luka clearly has no affinity for Bob; and Bob wasn't even hired by the Mavs until 4 months after Luka was drafted. Sounds like one of those made up stories by someone with an agenda to make Bob look good and others look bad, in the recent chaos, even if it takes pure fiction to do it (not saying you). Maybe someone wanted to try to save face for Bob since his foray into draft control seemed so sucky in 2020?

[KillerLeft]

Nico is clueless, and a babe in the woods in such matters

I agree with almost every word of your post, and certainly with the overall disclaimer which I take to be your general point. 

I do think it's quite possible (far from the "truth" that is quickly being adopted as fact, but possible) that the quoted portion above is not entirely accurate. I totally agree that we can expect that he has much learning to do, but I think it's possible he is not starting from as close to scratch in the talent area as you seem to confidently believe. 

Then again, you might be absolutely right. 

I am right there with you in terms of having pretty low expectations about the chances that consistently evaluating, acquiring and developing talent has been improved with these changes, but I do hold out some hope that Harrison can attract a better class of free agent and/or get a better class of player to try to get traded here.

[F Gump]

As far as we know Voulgaris was the one that screwed up the 2020 draft (although there is obviously still hope for some improvement). Donnie for all of his mistakes gets the credit for picking Luka. Just like in Giannis case he established connections with the family when Luka was a teenager and was all over him from the very beginning. That was his one strength. He knew a lot about european basketball and had a good scouting network. Not sure who is responsible for the undrafted guys but the Mavs have done a solid job in that department.

I think the biggest problem was not valuing the draft. Trading picks for veteran rentals. Using late 2nd round picks as PR stunts. In some years it felt like the Mavs did not even scout the available first round options. Expected to trade the pick or trade down and picked the guy with the best measurables or combine numbers.
I think not picking the right guys was more about not valuing the draft. Trading away draft picks for veteran rentals.

Perfect example for the lack of youth development and scouting. The "Texas Legends". Cannot really call it a development team. Other teams like the Jazz and Heat do a much better job. Main team and affiliate play similar schemes. Follow the same philosophy. The Legends are just another team in jerseys that resemble the Mavs ones. One of the worst g-league teams since they became the Mavs affiliate. They won the D-league finals in their last season in Colorado. In 2010 they moved to Frisco and became the Mavs affiliate. Only had two winning seasons in the Frisco era. Only two playoff appearances (lost in the first round twice). Instead of a development program we saw more PR stunts. Comeback of a nearly 40 year old Greg Ostertag. International jersey sellers like Yi Jianlian.

To sum it up. It can only get better...

Your notes on the Legends show vividly how little the Mavs have cared about developing players, as an organization.

It's hard to know if the utter failure was the Legends and what they were doing, the Mavs, or both. The Legends did have some players who developed into NBAers, but they had to go find another NBA team to get a contract. That's really bad on many levels.

[F Gump]

"Nico is clueless, and a babe in the woods in such matters"

I do think it's quite possible (far from the "truth" that is quickly being adopted as fact, but possible) that the quoted portion above is not entirely accurate. I totally agree that we can expect that he has much learning to do, but I think it's possible he is not starting from as close to scratch in the talent area as you seem to confidently believe. 

Then again, you might be absolutely right.

My take comes from what Nico himself is saying, not from trying to intuit what he might can do. He says he brings no particular skill in any of the areas we have talked about; he mentioned things like basketball talent evaluation, development, negotiating, roster planning, etc as not being skills he has - and that his past was about building relationships essentially, and nothing that really has to do with being an NBA GM.

He's been touted as being smart and creative, with a college basketball background. So somewhere in time, with the right tutor, he might be able to progress from raw material to someone who can excel.

But imo, at this time, this is the guy you bring in to be a Gilbert Rosas in Houston, or a Sean Marks in San Antonio, a guy who you want to train and teach the ropes of GMing, hoping they can pick it up. He's clearly expecting to be the trainee, not the trainer. I find that problematic in many ways.

The more we learn about Nico, the weirder the hire seems, frankly. As poorly prepared as he is to step in right now, it certainly could give even more support to the idea that he was brought in as just a different front man for a shadow GM.

[KillerLeft]

My take comes from what Nico himself is saying, not from trying to intuit what he might can do. He says he brings no particular skill in any of the areas we have talked about; he mentioned things like basketball talent evaluation, development, negotiating, roster planning, etc as not being skills he has - and that his past was about building relationships essentially, and nothing that really has to do with being an NBA GM.

1) I wasn't trying to imply that you were insulting him. Sorry if it came across this way. 

2) I wasn't aware of any public speaking/interviews Harrison has done since getting this job. If he has said those things above, that IS interesting. Did I miss something important? Can you point me in the right direction?

[Jommybone]

Huh?

Dorian was probably our 2nd best player in the series, if defense is still considered part of the game.

This post did not need the “probably” qualifier. I’d rank the top 10 this way:

Luka
Kawhi
PG
Marcus
Dorian
Batum
Jackson
Tim
KP
Ivica