2024 Playoffs- 4th Round: Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks

[SleepingHero]

Grant Afseth (@GrantAfseth)
Dallas Mavericks Injury Report Game 1 vs. Boston Celtics:

Luka Doncic - probable (right knee sprain; left ankle soreness)
Olivier-Maxence Prosper - questionable (left ankle sprain)

[dirkfansince1998]

https://x.com/NBA/status/1798420361886966226

[RGP1981]

I think one of the keys in the Finals will be for Luka and Kyrie to get Jrue and White in foul trouble. If they can get them in foul trouble, then having them foul them out soon after too.

[audiosway]

Honestly, I feel like Boston is so heavily favored due to analytics. They were heavily favored against GS a couple of years ago as well. Analytics don't win games.

Boston was not good against 50 win WC teams this year. They also don't deal with teams that get physical with them. I look for Kidd to make it ugly fast.

[KillerLeft]

I think one of the keys in the Finals will be for Luka and Kyrie to get Jrue and White in foul trouble. If they can get them in foul trouble, then having them foul them out soon after too.

From what I can glean from the analysts, it seems like they'll be putting Tatum on the bigs a lot to enable them to switch that 1-5 pick and roll. If that's real, then I'd love to know whether or not the refs are willing to call fouls on Tatum, because he's going to get frustrated trying to clear the defensive glass, I think.

[KillerLeft]

Honestly, I feel like Boston is so heavily favored due to analytics. They were heavily favored against GS a couple of years ago as well. Analytics don't win games.

Boston was not good against 50 win WC teams this year. They also don't deal with teams that get physical with them. I look for Kidd to make it ugly fast.

Absolutely. Point differential is taken VERY seriously by handicappers. It's one of the better indicators, historically. But, as you say, it's just data.

[Chicagojk]

Zach Lowe is picking the Celtics in 6 in his latest pod with Tim MacMahon. In all honesty, the pod was very complimentary of the Mavs. Probably more so. Lowe thinks with a healthy KP, the Celtics just barely enough answers on offense and defense to beat Dallas.

[KillerLeft]

Zach Lowe is picking the Celtics in 6 in his latest pod with Tim MacMahon.  In all honesty, the pod was very complimentary of the Mavs.  Probably more so.  Lowe thinks with a healthy KP, the Celtics just barely enough answers on offense and defense to beat Dallas.

Did you see Porzingis' presser with Boston media yesterday? 

Either he's playing the best game of Possum ever, or he's far from healthy.

[BolsDamols]

Luka is going to unleash the Michael Porter Jr jumper in game 1  

[Jmaciscool]

Did you see Porzingis' presser with Boston media yesterday? 

Either he's playing the best game of Possum ever, or he's far from healthy.

Yeah, he didn't sound super confident about being fully recovered. 

Even if he was, I can't imagine that he's in full game shape and ready to step into his first Finals game to play 100% like he was. I expect it to take a game or two at least to get back into his groove and that game or two could swing the series in Dallas's favor (or so I hope).

[Winter]

Did you see Porzingis' presser with Boston media yesterday? 

Either he's playing the best game of Possum ever, or he's far from healthy.

Nothing would make me happier than seeing KP play a lot of minutes at half-speed with a slight limp.

[BigDirk41]

Honestly KP playing could go either way. It could put them over the hump or it could completely kill the team chemistry. It will be interesting to see. At a minimum, he will most likely be really rusty the first couple of games. It's rare that a player misses extended time and then comes back shooting at a high rate immediately.

[SleepingHero]

dallasmavs
D-Live mic’d up at Finals Media Day did not disappoint
#OneForDallas #MFFL

https://twitter.com/dallasmavs/status/17...0108312622


Click the link to watch a pretty funny charismatic vid.

[SleepingHero]

@NBA
Take a look at Luka Doncic's best mic’d up moments from the 2023-24 season!

Don't miss Luka mic'd up TOMORROW for Game 1 of the #NBAFinals presented by
@YouTubeTV at 8:30pm/et on ABC

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1798478655854981131

[SleepingHero]

@NationMffl
Dereck Lively II on Luka and Kyrie’s leadership:

"Their voice is law. If you're on bullsh*t they're going to call you out. At the same time, they have the same respect for you if they're on bullsh*t and you're supposed to call them out."

[audiosway]

I just saw my favorite comment of this playoffs on youtube.

"Kyrie gonna finish what he started in Boston, leaving the Celtics with disappointment"

[audiosway]

On a more serious note I'm really starting to think Boston may be underestimating the Mavs. They have seemed to underestimate every team they have played so far in the playoffs. Meaning that if they were as dominant as paper says they are Indiana wouldn't have had 3 extremely close games against them. Same with Cleveland without Mitchell and the Heat without Butler.

Combine that with KP seeming to be healthy...means I can't wait for this series to start.

[KillerLeft]

The last word from me on this series, prior to game 1, is this:

I find myself in the uncomfortable position of rooting against myself, in a way. I LOVE 5-out basketball, and if it were up to me, that's the way my favorite team would play. I think Carlisle's spread pick and roll system that was built around Luka and utilized by Kidd to get to the WCF two years ago was a ton of fun to watch, and I just can't imagine a better way to get Luka into space, where he is essentially unguardable. For years, some of the more frequent contributors pushed back against that fetish, claiming that it was too limiting in other ways, most notably defense and rebounding. I never felt like the play style was the problem, just the defensive system and lack of athletes to implement it. I say that with complete understanding that getting players who can play tough, hard-nosed defense AND thrive in a 5-out, everyone qualified to work in space offense is a tall order.

...except, the Celtics seem to have done it. 

You guys (many of you) got what you've been screaming for these past 5 years: BIGS. Now, I think Lively has a chance to be a super well-rounded, versatile, switchable guy, and I even think if he can get there soon enough, he'll be able to maintain that skillset for 5-7 years, before ending up kind of like Brooke Lopez when he starts to slow down a little. This is certainly a player I would've wanted, even back then. But this idea of two of them, and the way they're implemented into the flow of the game on both ends...hard rolling every time, drop coverage, crashing the offensive glass rather than prioritizing transition defense, etc, etc, etc...this is the style I feel like many Mavs fans have been wanting. 

And, to be fully transparent, I've kind of come around on it. It IS fun to watch your team overtly outmuscle the opponent in the paint. It IS exhilarating to see dunk after dunk after dunk (though I was even more exhilarated when Luka used to be able to walk into the paint for a layup anytime he wanted because the opponent's bigs weren't there). Those guys DO set better screens. It HAS worked, up to this point. 

However, just when I start letting go of the 5-out dream, along comes Boston. They have assembled one of the best 5-out rosters ever, imho. Their entire top 8 are qualified high-volume catch and shoot guys from deep, so you can't really double anyone (I forsee a ton of Luka and Kyrie guarding someone 1-on-1 in space) and like 6 of those 8 can handle well enough to exploit the defense off the dribble anytime they force that defense into rotation. Seriously, they play the style well. The only thing they're missing is a guy like Luka, SGA, etc, but the system is so effective that Tatum kind of looks like that type if you squint. Jesus, I can't even imagine what Luka would do on that team if he had the ball. AND, they play pretty great defense, too. 

I desperately want the Mavs to win this, and so I'm desperately hoping Gafford doesn't get played off the floor. I'm hoping he and Lively can punish them on the offensive glass, and the Mavs can own the paint as they have through most of the postseason. If that happens, I'll let the dream die completely. 

But, if the series plays out the way more and more experts seem to think it will, I won't be upset just at the Mavs' loss, but also for the decision to go away from that play style. The optimist in me is starting to enjoy the advantages this Dallas team has carved out. The pessimist in me doesn't think owning the glass will necessarily matter all that much in this series, because Boston will be raining threes and eventually, when Dallas adjusts, they'll have to concede the paint, too, in attempt to deny the three pointers (this is essentially what happened against GS two years ago, though in a different way). The pessimist in me thinks Boston might be able to get shots of far superior quality to the Mavs pretty frequently in this series. 

I'm still listening to the optimistic side more than the pessimistic, mostly because of Luka and Kyrie, but also because there's something about this team that seems special to me. So, I'm sticking with my prediction of the Mavs in 6. 

...but, I don't mind admitting that I'm getting pretty worried. I feel like PJ Washington and DJJ both have to shoot over 40% from distance in this series for the Mavs to keep up. I hope I'm wrong, or that they can.

[Smitty]

It’s not about being right. It’s about winning. Luka likes the rim rolling bigs. He even made Powell look good for a while. I think it’s pretty incredible that Luka/Kidd have gotten two completely different teams to the WCF’s in 3 years and one of them to the finals. The great thing about this team is that they can play multiple ways because of Gafford-Lively-Maxi. The C’s can only play 5-out.

Alley Oop dunks by team in the Playoffs:

Mavs- 54
Nuggets- 9
Thunder- 8
Cavs- 7
Wolves- 6
Celtics- 6
Clippers- 5
Pacers- 5
Knicks- 3
Magic- 3
Lakers- 3
Heat- 3
Pelicans- 1
76ers- 0
Bucks- 0
Suns- 0

[KillerLeft]

It’s not about being right. It’s about winning. Luka likes the rim rolling bigs. He even made Powell look good for a while. I think it’s pretty incredible that Luka/Kidd have gotten two completely different teams to the WCF’s in 3 years and one of them to the finals. The great thing about this team is that they can play multiple ways because of Gafford-Lively-Maxi. The C’s can only play 5-out.

Alley Oop dunks by team in the Playoffs:

Mavs- 54
Nuggets- 9
Thunder- 8
Cavs- 7
Wolves- 6
Celtics- 6
Clippers- 5
Pacers- 5
Knicks- 3
Magic- 3
Lakers- 3
Heat- 3
Pelicans- 1
76ers- 0
Bucks- 0
Suns- 0

Sorry, but I think you missed my whole point. 

I never remotely said anything at all about a desire to "be right." I even said "I hope I'm wrong" and "I've come around on this." 

I'm worried that the superior style will win the series. If it's NOT the superior style, I'll be the happiest fan here. And, to my mind, Luka and Kyrie are so superior as PLAYERS, compared to Tatum and Brown, that the ONLY reason Boston is favored is that basketball people think their style is superior. Again, I sure hope the Mavs' approach wins out, and I've even stuck with my prediction. I don't know how much clearer I could be. 

Just musing on what's worrying me, as a Mavs fan, ahead of the NBA finals.