Infatuation with 3pt shots will kill this team

[hakeemfan]

I asked this question last year and a bunch of posters told me to get with the times, and that 3 & D is the new blueprint of the modern game.

That's fine, but I don't want Luka and KP jacking up a bunch of 3 pt shots every game. Luka's strength is breaking down defenses and his ball handling. KP is 7'3".  Sure you want to keep defenses honest and a long distance shot is necessary these days. However, that's different from making that the bread and butter of your offense. Every team is not GS.  Why not play to our strengths? 

Plus having the 2 cornerstones jack up a ton of long distance shots freezes all the other guys.  Again, just because it works for GS or some other teams, why do this?  I think the Mavs played a lazy and inefficient brand of offensive basketball last year, and hope it doesn't continue this year.

[robillionaire]

If you think that's bad wait until you watch THJ play for a couple seasons

[dirkfansince1998]

They certainly need to change it up. Mavs started the game against the Bucks with 14 3-point attempts and one long two. Not a single layup/dunk/postup.
The problem is that they start to settle for 3s. There is a big difference between a team that simply passes around the ball on the perimeter until someone pulls the trigger and a team that creates open 3s with penetration or drawn double teams.

[reckoner07]

This is preseason. A time for experimentation with concepts....like starting out with 14 of 15 threes.

[j0Shi]

I think our offense will look vastly different than what we've seen in preseason. Ideally you can run plays through Luka, Wright, or even KP in the post. You're saying we should mix it up a little to give defenses different looks and I couldn't agree more. But it's also evident Rick doesn't want to reveal his system yet and just lets guys get comfortable to each other.

I don't agree however with your suggestion that we should ditch modern NBA moneyball. Luka and KP is a duo that fits that approach perfectly in that they create tons of space for shooters. We surely lack an elite wing, but I would nonetheless still establish the system and then adjust the personnel if needed.

[WillE]

I think our offense will look vastly different than what we've seen in preseason. Ideally you can run plays through Luka, Wright, or even KP in the post. You're saying we should mix it up a little to give defenses different looks and I couldn't agree more. But it's also evident Rick doesn't want to reveal his system yet and just lets guys get comfortable to each other.

I don't agree however with your suggestion that we should ditch modern NBA moneyball. Luka and KP is a duo that fits that approach perfectly in that they create tons of space for shooters. We surely lack an elite wing, but I would nonetheless still establish the system and then adjust the personnel if needed.

I agree that this is obviously the approach here and I also think it's the right choice.

You don't need to be elite in shooting to be sucessful, that's what the game is realizing. Look at the boxscores nowadays. Almost every player that is shooting and hitting threes and it works. As long as you shoot at least with average accuracy, you're better off if you shoot as much as possible from three point land - that's just simple math.

Luka & KP may indeed not be elite shooters, but still at least average. So imo, shooting a high volume from outside is not a question of whether but only how for this team. That's their challenge currently.

[j0Shi]

You don't need to be elite in shooting to be successful

Pretty much this. What most people do not realize is that for any player shooting threes (and attempts close to the baskets, free throws) is the best option regardless of their percentages. Even bad shooters will get more efficiency out of their three point shots. It's really just simple math. There might be some weird exceptions, but overall, if a player indeed has a jumper, he can extend that jumper beyond the three point line. That's at the cost of accuracy, but usually the value of the shot outweighs the lower percentages.

Let's assume 47% on midrange shots, which is Dirk's career average. Means you're getting 0.94 PPS. To get the same value out of your three point attempts you only need 31.3%. It's highly unlikely that a 47% midrange shooter can't hit 31.3% of their threes (Dirk's career avg is 38.3%). And this doesn't even include the fact that your team is more likely to get a rebound off three point attempts etc. I bet there are little to no players who reliably shoot midrange shots, but are an absolute fail beyond the arc. Either you have a jumper or you don't. And if you have one, it's threes for you all day.

[Moviemavguy]

It's not the volume of threes but the type of threes taken that makes the difference.  It's fun to practice those long threes, but I don't see any real reason to rely on them because they are still low percentage shots.  Ball movement leading to an open three should be the offense of choice with regards to the shot.

[madmavsgirl]

It's not the volume of threes but the type of threes taken that makes the difference.  It's fun to practice those long threes, but I don't see any real reason to rely on them because they are still low percentage shots.  Ball movement leading to an open three should be the offense of choice with regards to the shot.

Agree.  Too many long threes and not enough penetration.  The more you attack the better the looks will be on the perimeter.

[hakeemfan]

You don't need to be elite in shooting to be successful

Pretty much this. What most people do not realize is that for any player shooting threes (and attempts close to the baskets, free throws) is the best option regardless of their percentages. Even bad shooters will get more efficiency out of their three point shots. It's really just simple math. There might be some weird exceptions, but overall, if a player indeed has a jumper, he can extend that jumper beyond the three point line. That's at the cost of accuracy, but usually the value of the shot outweighs the lower percentages.

Let's assume 47% on midrange shots, which is Dirk's career average. Means you're getting 0.94 PPS. To get the same value out of your three point attempts you only need 31.3%. It's highly unlikely that a 47% midrange shooter can't hit 31.3% of their threes (Dirk's career avg is 38.3%). And this doesn't even include the fact that your team is more likely to get a rebound off three point attempts etc. I bet there are little to no players who reliably shoot midrange shots, but are an absolute fail beyond the arc. Either you have a jumper or you don't. And if you have one, it's threes for you all day.

It's not that you're stating anything wrong, but these same stats have been thrown around for a few years now to justify the 3 pt offense.  I don't have anything against 3 pt shots as such, but GS also moves beautifully without the ball and gets a lot of baskets near the rim. Plus they have 2 (3 when KD was there) of the greatest 3 pt shooters ever in the history of the game. Yet they didn't just hold the ball and jack up a 3.   

Teams that play a lazy brand of offense, especially one that doesn't suit the personnel, will suffer sooner or later.  The stats will bear that out too.

[Mavs2019]

I asked this question last year and a bunch of posters told me to get with the times, and that 3 & D is the new blueprint of the modern game.

That's fine, but I don't want Luka and KP jacking up a bunch of 3 pt shots every game. Luka's strength is breaking down defenses and his ball handling. KP is 7'3".  Sure you want to keep defenses honest and a long distance shot is necessary these days. However, that's different from making that the bread and butter of your offense. Every team is not GS.  Why not play to our strengths? 

Plus having the 2 cornerstones jack up a ton of long distance shots freezes all the other guys.  Again, just because it works for GS or some other teams, why do this?  I think the Mavs played a lazy and inefficient brand of offensive basketball last year, and hope it doesn't continue this year.

The Mavs offense seems to play it the wrong way around. The 3pt shot is a by product of attacking the rim first. You try to score a lay-up/draw free throws and when the defense takes it away, you kick it out; and rotate the ball till you have an open three. The Mavs seem to run the offense with the whole intent to find a 3pt shot, and when the other team does not take away the lane (by their defensive set-up), they´ll still try to force up a 3pt shot. As a result it will be contested and therefore low percentage.

Sure the entertainment value of a long stepback three by Luka is awesome, but he can literally get an easy floater in the lane (or free throws) every time, as long as he´s defended one on one. He settles too often imho. He needs to start the offense, then kick it out and move it around to give guys like Jackson, Curry, THJ, DFS, Wright, Kleber uncontested 3pters.

Maybe they really do miss the lob-threat of Powell as their main avenue to attack the rim. Porzingis hasn´t done this at all in pre-season. He´s occupying the Dirk spaces, which also shrinks the court and operational space for others. I just hope this does not become a Dwight Howard situation, where Porzingis feels he´s marginalized, especially given his skill-set. Though in the "modern" NBA the simple lob threat might be the best utilisation of the C position.

As I type, I realize Dwight Powell might be the most important player to the Mavs eco system. Without him, the current offense doesn´t function, and the only way around it, might upset the delicate flower that is Kristaps Porzingis.

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You don't need to be elite in shooting to be successful

Pretty much this. What most people do not realize is that for any player shooting threes (and attempts close to the baskets, free throws) is the best option regardless of their percentages. Even bad shooters will get more efficiency out of their three point shots. It's really just simple math. There might be some weird exceptions, but overall, if a player indeed has a jumper, he can extend that jumper beyond the three point line. That's at the cost of accuracy, but usually the value of the shot outweighs the lower percentages.

Let's assume 47% on midrange shots, which is Dirk's career average. Means you're getting 0.94 PPS. To get the same value out of your three point attempts you only need 31.3%. It's highly unlikely that a 47% midrange shooter can't hit 31.3% of their threes (Dirk's career avg is 38.3%). And this doesn't even include the fact that your team is more likely to get a rebound off three point attempts etc. I bet there are little to no players who reliably shoot midrange shots, but are an absolute fail beyond the arc. Either you have a jumper or you don't. And if you have one, it's threes for you all day.

It's not that you're stating anything wrong, but these same stats have been thrown around for a few years now to justify the 3 pt offense.  I don't have anything against 3 pt shots as such, but GS also moves beautifully without the ball and gets a lot of baskets near the rim. Plus they have 2 (3 when KD was there) of the greatest 3 pt shooters ever in the history of the game. Yet they didn't just hold the ball and jack up a 3.   

Teams that play a lazy brand of offense, especially one that doesn't suit the personnel, will suffer sooner or later.  The stats will bear that out too.

Next time I read, before I post.

You pretty much nailed it.

[j0Shi]

It's not that you're stating anything wrong, but these same stats have been thrown around for a few years now to justify the 3 pt offense.  I don't have anything against 3 pt shots as such, but GS also moves beautifully without the ball and gets a lot of baskets near the rim. Plus they have 2 (3 when KD was there) of the greatest 3 pt shooters ever in the history of the game. Yet they didn't just hold the ball and jack up a 3.   

Teams that play a lazy brand of offense, especially one that doesn't suit the personnel, will suffer sooner or later.  The stats will bear that out too.

I think it's fair to say that while the current offense often centered around the three point shot, it's as important to get close to the rim and move the ball. But again, Luka and KP fit that perfectly. Them jacking up "bad" threes is often just a product of having too little help from elsewhere.

[dirkfansince1998]

You don't need to be elite in shooting to be successful

Pretty much this. What most people do not realize is that for any player shooting threes (and attempts close to the baskets, free throws) is the best option regardless of their percentages. Even bad shooters will get more efficiency out of their three point shots. It's really just simple math. There might be some weird exceptions, but overall, if a player indeed has a jumper, he can extend that jumper beyond the three point line. That's at the cost of accuracy, but usually the value of the shot outweighs the lower percentages.

Let's assume 47% on midrange shots, which is Dirk's career average. Means you're getting 0.94 PPS. To get the same value out of your three point attempts you only need 31.3%. It's highly unlikely that a 47% midrange shooter can't hit 31.3% of their threes (Dirk's career avg is 38.3%). And this doesn't even include the fact that your team is more likely to get a rebound off three point attempts etc. I bet there are little to no players who reliably shoot midrange shots, but are an absolute fail beyond the arc. Either you have a jumper or you don't. And if you have one, it's threes for you all day.

It's not that you're stating anything wrong, but these same stats have been thrown around for a few years now to justify the 3 pt offense.  I don't have anything against 3 pt shots as such, but GS also moves beautifully without the ball and gets a lot of baskets near the rim. Plus they have 2 (3 when KD was there) of the greatest 3 pt shooters ever in the history of the game. Yet they didn't just hold the ball and jack up a 3.   

Teams that play a lazy brand of offense, especially one that doesn't suit the personnel, will suffer sooner or later.  The stats will bear that out too.

The whole idea that GS is just chucking 3s is wrong anyway. They ranked 14th in 17/18 and 9th in 18/19 when it comes to 3-point attempts.
The Warriors actually were among the league leading teams in midrange attempts (https://shottracker.com/articles/are-the-warriors-making-the-mid-range-relevant-again).

The Rockets have lead the league in 3-point shooting in the last few years. They have a clear ranking for shot attempts. The 3 isn´t their first option but more often than not the one that the defense cannot take away. That´s the real value of 3-point shooting.

Freethrows > Layups/Dunks > 3s > anything else

There is no way to build an offense around 3s alone. Even the best shooters have off nights. The best offense is a versatile one...especially in the playoffs.

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You don't need to be elite in shooting to be successful

Pretty much this. What most people do not realize is that for any player shooting threes (and attempts close to the baskets, free throws) is the best option regardless of their percentages. Even bad shooters will get more efficiency out of their three point shots. It's really just simple math. There might be some weird exceptions, but overall, if a player indeed has a jumper, he can extend that jumper beyond the three point line. That's at the cost of accuracy, but usually the value of the shot outweighs the lower percentages.

Let's assume 47% on midrange shots, which is Dirk's career average. Means you're getting 0.94 PPS. To get the same value out of your three point attempts you only need 31.3%. It's highly unlikely that a 47% midrange shooter can't hit 31.3% of their threes (Dirk's career avg is 38.3%). And this doesn't even include the fact that your team is more likely to get a rebound off three point attempts etc. I bet there are little to no players who reliably shoot midrange shots, but are an absolute fail beyond the arc. Either you have a jumper or you don't. And if you have one, it's threes for you all day.

There are a lot of players that fit your description. Half of the Spurs rosters....DeRozan, Aldridge. Bigman that did not extend their range to the 3-point but take midrange shots or recently retired guards like Parker and Livingston.

Jump shooting mechanics are a lot more difficult than the average person would asume. Livingston once mentioned his lack of 3-point shooting in an interview and explained that his usual shooting motion did not create enough power to shoot from 3 and that he had to change/adjust it if he wanted to shoot from 20ft out.

[hakeemfan]

It's not that you're stating anything wrong, but these same stats have been thrown around for a few years now to justify the 3 pt offense.  I don't have anything against 3 pt shots as such, but GS also moves beautifully without the ball and gets a lot of baskets near the rim. Plus they have 2 (3 when KD was there) of the greatest 3 pt shooters ever in the history of the game. Yet they didn't just hold the ball and jack up a 3.   

Teams that play a lazy brand of offense, especially one that doesn't suit the personnel, will suffer sooner or later.  The stats will bear that out too.

I think it's fair to say that while the current offense often centered around the three point shot, it's as important to get close to the rim and move the ball. But again, Luka and KP fit that perfectly. Them jacking up "bad" threes is often just a product of having too little help from elsewhere.

If you allow for that excuse then this team will not take the step forward it needs to take.  KP, Luka, RC should all be held accountable if that sort of excuse is brought up.  One is a max player and the other is going to be that.  They need to set the example to the rest of the team on how to play.  When the star players work hard to get good shots, it not only sets a better example for the others, it also gives the others easier shots for their talent level.

[Fuerza1]

Carlisle does not adjust to his talent; he forces the players to adjust to his “system.” We know he’s stubborn as hell and right now, he’s addicted to 3PT volley fire. 

Last season, the Mavs shot the 4th most 3PA’s but ranked 4th worst in percentage. Now Carlisle wants us to shoot even more with pretty much the same core? Brilliant. We are averaging 45 3PA’s (8 more than last season’s average) in the preseason and shooting it at an abysmal rate again. Is this a recipe for success?

Porzingis and Seth will help but the former is clearly rusty while the latter’s role will be closer to his Portland one than his first stint in Dallas. I believe MBT are praying for internal improvement from Luka, Brunson, etc. but I still don’t know if it will be enough to justify the incredibly high volume of 3’s. We need several guys to shoot it near an elite level. It is a lot to ask for.

[fifteenth]

The Mavs have played with beautiful ball movement in the past. I can't believe that last game's first half offense represents how this offense will look a few weeks into the season. If it does I'll be shocked and disappointed.

[michaeltex]

There seemed to be more drive and kick in last night's game against OKC than the previous games. 3pt FG% is still not good. 8 for 27 from your starting 5 (29.6%) is not where you want to be once the season starts.