IZTOK DIAGNOSES DECLINE OF MAVS OFFENSE

[mvossman]

I don't think Cuban wants to pay the tax ever again, but to be clear, I wouldn't expect him to do so next year anyway. 

What I think a good outcome might look like is to either re-sign DFS and Brunson (both of whom are unquestionably on the short list of players helping the team effectively) to continue playing here or to use them to some effect that could potentially benefit the team. 

Since we know the tax line is a likely deterrent, it seems like some of the deadweight will have to be dumped in order to make the above paragraph possible.

To me, if DFS and Brunson are gone next year while KP, Powell, Bullock and THJ remain, that will be a bad outcome. If one or more of those players are artfully removed in such a way that DFS/Brunson can be re-signed, traded or sign-and-traded for quality additions, I might recoup some hope.

We are currently projected to be 19 mil over the cap (6.5 mil under the tax line) without either DFS or Brunson on the payroll.  We can let Moses walk for another 2 mil.  We could let Frank walk for another 2, but who wants to do that?  I figure Brunson/DFS will be roughly 25-30 mil range to re-sign.  That means we need to shed roughly 20 mil in order to retain both under the tax.  Its hard to see that happening without dumping KP for mostly air.

[KillerLeft]

Its hard to see that happening without dumping KP for mostly air.

Bingo. 

Good outcome! (from this terrible starting point, of course) Or, I'd also accept DFS/Brunson being included in packages with some of those undesirables for quality additions.

[mvossman]

What's the guess on DFS + Brunson?  25m combined?

Ha!  I just guessed 25-30.  DFS will get at least MLE.  Brunson will depend on other teams cap space.

[omahen]

We are currently projected to be 19 mil over the cap (6.5 mil under the tax line) without either DFS or Brunson on the payroll. 

I guess you also need to count the FRP salary. Mavs really screwed themselves badly. I think their move needs to be before summer unless Cuban is willing to pay huge tax. 

sign-and-traded for quality additions

SnT of UFA doesn't bring much in return. See Lowry, Butler and similar cases. DFS is likely worth MLE anyway and half a league will have that.

[KillerLeft]

DFS will get at least MLE.

So here's a tangible example. 

Keeping Bullock and letting DFS walk for nothing = BAD

Dumping Bullock so that the MLE can go to DFS, while not really qualifying as an improvement, seems much less bad to me. It's at least something that doesn't make things worse.

[omahen]

Dumping Bullock so that the MLE can go to DFS, while not really qualifying as an improvement, seems much less bad to me. It's at least something that doesn't make things worse.

I doubt anyone would just take Bullock (or similar) for free. Even if they do, it is a lost asset. Yes, the loss is lower than losing DFS/Brunson, but Mavs would also just lose another option to improve the team. Because once the trade will need to happen, it will have to be one of those DFS/Brunson contracts on the table, as there will not be much else left.

[KillerLeft]

Guys, I agree - the Mavs are in a bad, bad spot. I'm not arguing that at all. 

I'm just saying that I view the DFS/Brunson situations as a chance to see whether or not the new MBT even understand how bad the situation is. 

That's what I mean by "good outcome." It's not that I expect them to miraculously whip together a contender with these ingredients in a few easy steps. The last chance for that was this past summer, and as we've talked to death, things will get much harder now. 

I just want to see that they understand who the good players are and try to remove the others. That's all I'm saying. I'm not even hoping they can KEEP the good ones, necessarily. I get that those are the ones other teams will want, and therefore the ones who might need to be sacrificed in order to climb out of this hole. I just hope this front office has the ability to move the bad ones effectively enough to make moving the good ones MATTER.

[cow]

If we think DFS will get the MLE why not offering him 4/45 and front load the contract.  I was really hoping to resign him in the 8-10 range though.  Brunson is the tough one for me.  I know he's productive and all but handing him 15m+ is tough.

[KillerLeft]

I doubt anyone would just take Bullock (or similar) for free. Even if they do, it is a lost asset. Yes, the loss is lower than losing DFS/Brunson, but Mavs would also just lose another option to improve the team. Because once the trade will need to happen, it will have to be one of those DFS/Brunson contracts on the table, as there will not be much else left.

If nobody wants the guy, how is it a lost asset? I mean, I agree in the sense that we can criticize using the MLE on him in the first place, don't get me wrong. But, at some point, our eyes need to go forward, to the future. 

I'm under no illusions that there's a way to "fix" all of this in one TDL and summer, but from where we are now, today, I feel like maneuvering so that DFS and Brunson can be kept (or used to full value) while staying under the tax line would be a good sign that the new management has a clue. It's just my opinion.

At this point, there are so many players on this roster who "can't be traded because their value is too low right now" that I wonder whether some people think they're watching a basketball team or a used car dealership. Just admit the last decade was a disaster and move on, already, MAVS!

[mvossman]

Bingo. 

Good outcome! Or, I'd also accept DFS/Brunson being included in packages with some of those undesirables for quality additions.

I feel like folks don't realize how much worse this team is if we simply remove KP.  I'm not sure what the value is of bringing it back sans KP as an over the cap team that can't even spend the MLE.  At that point you might as well tear it down to the studs.  Then what?  Tank?  How are we going to do that with Luka?  The free agent class coming up is bleak.  If we are going to tear it down, might as well wait one more year when we only have Luka, DFS and KP option on the books.  Then you can go crazy in a hopefully much better FA class, and you didn't have to burn any assets to dump players.

[mvossman]

If we think DFS will get the MLE why not offering him 4/45 and front load the contract.  I was really hoping to resign him in the 8-10 range though.  Brunson is the tough one for me.  I know he's productive and all but handing him 15m+ is tough.

I totally agree with this.  My guess is that given DFS is one of the very few assets they have, they may want to keep their options open for a TDL deal.  If we are planning on staying under the tax next year, we need to trade Brunson+ or KP.  We will probably get more value out of Brunson+, so that is where I would lean.

[fifteenth]

I love all this discussion, so this by no means is meant to be dismissive. But I just don't by the often repeated line that "if not that, then there really is no other way to improve the team." I just think there are way more possibilities than what we can come up with. I don't think the team is limited to what we can think of.

[cow]

I feel like folks don't realize how much worse this team is if we simply remove KP.  I'm not sure what the value is of bringing it back sans KP as an over the cap team that can't even spend the MLE.  At that point you might as well tear it down to the studs.  Then what?  Tank?  How are we going to do that with Luka?  The free agent class coming up is bleak.  If we are going to tear it down, might as well wait one more year when we only have Luka, DFS and KP option on the books.  Then you can go crazy in a hopefully much better FA class, and you didn't have to burn any assets to dump players.

I don't think people realize how bad this team is now.  This is barely a play-in team.  You don't have the assets to overcome the roster challenges nor the cap space if you could attract free agents if there were good free agents on the horizon.  If you want to tear it down to the studs, the rosiest of outcomes would be to put a good product in 24-25.  

-Draft someone good in the lottery this year.
-Use what little assets (Brunson) you have to recapture your '23 pick or another '23 pick.  Bullock + JB + SRP(s) for Kemba  + our owed pick.
-Draft someone good in the lottery in '23
-Look for the best pennies on the dollar deal for KP.  You'll never get back what you invested in him but maybe you could get a youngster with potential or a FRP.  
-Move THJ to one of the teams that showed interest in him and try to extract some value.  
-Hope Nico has his legs under him for the '23 and '24 free agency classes.

I have zero faith that the MBT could successfully pull a rebuild off.  I'm also completely certain that they will stay on this treadmill of mediocrity.  The only question mark I have is when Luka is going to ask to be traded.

[omahen]

If nobody wants the guy, how is it a lost asset?

In a sense that his contract is an asset that can be used in a trade for a better player. Without this contract, DFS or similar needs to be used to match salary.

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I don't think people realize how bad this team is now.  This is barely a play-in team. 

This same team was a solid first round team last season. One bad third of a season doesn't change that. They could start playing solid rotations and result would immediately improve.

[fifteenth]

We need for Luka to be a superstar again, for the shooters to get used to playing defense AND shooting, and for the team to continue moving towards "one big" lineups.

[mvossman]

I don't think people realize how bad this team is now.  This is barely a play-in team.  You don't have the assets to overcome the roster challenges nor the cap space if you could attract free agents if there were good free agents on the horizon.  If you want to tear it down to the studs, the rosiest of outcomes would be to put a good product in 24-25.  

-Draft someone good in the lottery this year.
-Use what little assets (Brunson) you have to recapture your '23 pick or another '23 pick.  Bullock + JB + SRP(s) for Kemba  + our owed pick.
-Draft someone good in the lottery in '23
-Look for the best pennies on the dollar deal for KP.  You'll never get back what you invested in him but maybe you could get a youngster with potential or a FRP.  
-Move THJ to one of the teams that showed interest in him and try to extract some value.  
-Hope Nico has his legs under him for the '23 and '24 free agency classes.

I have zero faith that the MBT could successfully pull a rebuild off.  I'm also completely certain that they will stay on this treadmill of mediocrity.  The only question mark I have is when Luka is going to ask to be traded.

I don't fully agree with your assessment of this team, but I am good with just about all of these moves.  I would probably go ahead and extend DFS as part of this.  My one comment is that there is no hurry to move KP.  We wont have cap space next offseason and there is not much of a free agent class anyways.  We can potentially wait a year and a half before dumping KP.  Maybe he stays healthy and builds some value.  If nothing else his contract will be expiring.  The same applies to THJ.  With his declining contract he will potentially have more value in a year and a half as well.

[cow]

This same team was a solid first round team last season. One bad third of a season doesn't change that. They could start playing solid rotations and result would immediately improve.

We could improve to be a first round exit.  Oh, boy!

[KillerLeft]

@"mvossman" you, yourself, said you had a hard time envisioning a good outcome to the DFS/Brunson situation.

You don't have to agree with this, and I'm sure there are 100 ways it could go that would be better than this, but if it comes down to these two, simple choices:

1) DFS/Brunson gone, KP here

2) KP gone, DFS/Brunson here

GIVE ME #2. I believe the Mavs would be a BETTER team in scenario 2 than 1. Either option is subtractive in nature, but again, we pretty much know he's not paying the tax next year, so...we have to pick the least of all the evils, right? 

If this can be accomplished by moving Powell/Bullock, or any other creative way, GREAT, but from reading your responses, I'm left thinking that you are somehow still invested in the Luka/KP dream. I am not. I am out on that. It's not going to work. It's a dead end. Wheel spinning. Waste of time. My enthusiasm for the team will be renewed the exact second he's gone, and I think his value must be at the highest level since the Mavs got him! Now is the time.

[cow]

What did you return with KP gone would be my question.

[KillerLeft]

What did you return with KP gone would be my question.

As much as possible, but my feeling is that it doesn't truly have any bearing on whether or not you should move him. If you get something of value that fits with Luka, AMAZING. If you dump him for air, that helps you with the "too close to the tax line" situation. 

No matter what - having him here is causing problems. He's actually playing halfway decently this year, but the entire offense is based around him and it's not getting the team more wins. Fewer, actually. 

I do like his defensive effort this season. I really do. He'll never be able to hold up against pick-and-roll teams in the playoffs.

Maybe it's just limited thinking on my part, but I simply can't see a way in which there is any point to pretending there's a chance it works. This situation has almost completely sucked my Mavs fandom reserves dry. If they lose Brunson and DFS because of the tax line (really because of KP's max contract, in truth) that will be it for me, I think.