IZTOK DIAGNOSES DECLINE OF MAVS OFFENSE

[KillerLeft]

Also, never forget.

Instead of being embarrassed enough to deny that this was real and firing the people who made it, the Mavericks chose to proudly release this to their fanbase. 

I lived through it and I can barely believe it's real.

[mvossman]

And no question he is 100% unproven as a GM, but none of the evidence we have so far has me concerned in the least. If the TDL rolls by with nothing, I will get more anxious or if some questionable moves happen then, but my eye is mostly on this summer. This will be the "summer of Nico" IMO.

The evidence does not concern you in the least?  We had potentially 34 mil in cap space with significant holes to fill.  Specifically we needed a secondary play maker and more defense.  What we got was THJ/Bullock/WCS.  That is an extremely underwhelming return and did not address any of our needs.  This offseason was the last shot we had with improving the team with cap space and we failed utterly.  

I have heard a lot of suggestions that Cuban handed over the keys to Nico, but what evidence for this is there other than PR speak?  When Cuban went to hire a GM there was no hint of him looking at an experienced GM (or underling).  If he was really going to hand over the keys, why would he do that?  He really isn't that stupid.  Look at this last offseason we had.  It looks a whole lot like previous offseasons.  Put all of your eggs in a big name older (declining) player (Lowry) and when that fails scramble to hold on to your own guys and overpay for middling players that you will have to attach an asset to dump later (Bullock/Brown).  Oh yeah, and make sure we make a deal for a TPE that we will never use.  It was a textbook Mavs offseason.  The only difference is that we at least properly tampered this time, but my guess is that was a lesson Cuban learned after getting his ass handed to him 2 years ago.

The Nico/Kidd hires feels like an attempt by Cuban to make the Mavs more of a free agent destination.  Given that our top outside free agent was Bullock, that obviously didn't work.

The "summer of Nico"?  For what?  We will have no cap space and no assets.  Most likely the biggest moves this summer are going to be shaving salary so we can stay under the tax.  You may want to brace yourself for disappointment.

[cow]

Instead of being embarrassed enough to deny that this was real and firing the people who made it, the Mavericks chose to proudly release this to their fanbase. 

I lived through it and I can barely believe it's real.

GLOBAL DOMINATION

I'm not a religious man, but I pray every night that Jerry Jones makes Cuban an offer he can't refuse.  Go chase your baseball dreams, Mark...just stay away from the Rangers.

[mavsluvr]

Instead of being embarrassed enough to deny that this was real and firing the people who made it, the Mavericks chose to proudly release this to their fanbase. 

I lived through it and I can barely believe it's real.

This was so cringeworthy, I could hardly stand to watch the whole thing. And it's only two minutes long.

[cow]

This was so cringeworthy, I could hardly stand to watch the whole thing. And it's only two minutes long.

The end is the chef's kiss though.

[mavsluvr]

The "summer of Nico"?  For what?  We will have no cap space and no assets. 

This is a good point. Regardless of who is the decision-maker, I don't know what we're realistically expecting.

[omahen]

Regardless of who is the decision-maker, I don't know what we're realistically expecting.

Mavs have 2022 and 2027 FRP to trade (and potentially more) on draft night. Of course the interesting decisions on DFS and Brunson are coming with somehow doubting Mavs will go deep in the tax with this team (but letting them walk would be a disaster).

[KillerLeft]

Of course the interesting decisions on DFS and Brunson are coming with somehow doubting Mavs will go deep in the tax with this team (but letting them walk would be a disaster).

For me, how this situation is handled will reveal everything needed to form hopes for the next several years. 

There are a variety of potential good outcomes, but if what I think will happen actually happens, I'm probably done with hope for a while.

[fifteenth]

...just stay away from the Rangers.

you think he could make them worse?

[Kammrath]

The evidence does not concern you in the least?  We had potentially 34 mil in cap space with significant holes to fill.  Specifically we needed a secondary play maker and more defense.  What we got was THJ/Bullock/WCS.  That is an extremely underwhelming return and did not address any of our needs.  This offseason was the last shot we had with improving the team with cap space and we failed utterly.

Based on the evidence AT THE TIME, I do not fault Nico for those moves. 

1) No one could have predicted that RB would come to DAL and shoot 13.6% less from three (down to 27.4% from 41.0%). RB has been good on D, so no issue there. He is also a 38.4% three shooter WITH the abomination of this season. No one saw this coming. 

2) THJ shot 39.1% and 39.8% from three in DAL the two previous seasons (after getting healthy). No one could have seen him dropping off to 33.2% after the new contract. 

3) WCS has been inconsistent and unreliable at times, but last year and even this year the Mavs D is SOOO much better when he plays. It is nice to have a good defensive big who can move his feet come off the bench. I don't know what is going on with his personal reasons, but WCS wasn't a big investment and he has still performed when asked to this year and hasn't hurt the team play overall when he has been asked to step up.

Also, I would not expect Nico to do any big shakeup right when he got here. He was not familiar with the team, the players, the dynamics, the needs, the fits, etc. AND there was a big coaching change. No reason to change too much all at once. 

If this summer rolls around and the Mavs haven't turned a corner and Nico doesn't work hard to redo the roster, I will be frustrated with him. But right now I have no frustration with him. If anyone deserves our frustration it is Cuban for not moving on from Donnie YEARS ago and the players for not making their damn shots.

[fifteenth]

Instead of being embarrassed enough to deny that this was real and firing the people who made it, the Mavericks chose to proudly release this to their fanbase. 

I lived through it and I can barely believe it's real.

That video probably helped Howard to make his decision

[cow]

you think he could make them worse?

Yes.

[mvossman]

For me, how this situation is handled will reveal everything needed to form hopes for the next several years. 

There are a variety of potential good outcomes, but if what I think will happen actually happens, I'm probably done with hope for a while.

I'm struggling to see too many possible good outcomes.  Its hard to imagine they are going to go into the tax just to run this group back if they continue to struggle.  That means Brunson most likely needs to go.  I could seem them packaging Powell/Brunson for an expiring contract (and maybe a pick).  Then you should have enough room to sign DFS and use the full MLE for Brunson's replacement while staying under the tax.

IF they are willing to go into tax, its hard to imagine more than a full MLE signing and then paying whatever they have to for Brunson/DFS.  Not sure how much sense that makes if they don't make it out of the play-in this year.

[fifteenth]

Yes.

What's worst than the worst when the worst includes stingy owners and a roster of misses and "futures" who have no future? 

If you're a die hard Rangers fan, I am not trying to push buttons!!! I'm not hard core Rangers (I used to be), so I could be missing something, but I can't see an ounce of hope in that situation.

[mvossman]

Based on the evidence AT THE TIME, I do not fault Nico for those moves. 

1) No one could have predicted that RB would come to DAL and shoot 13.6% less from three (down to 27.4% from 41.0%). RB has been good on D, so no issue there. He is also a 38.4% three shooter WITH the abomination of this season. No one saw this coming. 

2) THJ shot 39.1% and 39.8% from three in DAL the two previous seasons (after getting healthy). No one could have seen him dropping off to 33.2% after the new contract. 

3) WCS has been inconsistent and unreliable at times, but last year and even this year the Mavs D is SOOO much better when he plays. It is nice to have a good defensive big who can move his feet come off the bench. I don't know what is going on with his personal reasons, but WCS wasn't a big investment and he has still performed when asked to this year and hasn't hurt the team play overall when he has been asked to step up.

Also, I would not expect Nico to do any big shakeup right when he got here. He was not familiar with the team, the players, the dynamics, the needs, the fits, etc. AND there was a big coaching change. No reason to change too much all at once. 

If this summer rolls around and the Mavs haven't turned a corner and Nico doesn't work hard to redo the roster, I will be frustrated with him. But right now I have no frustration with him. If anyone deserves our frustration it is Cuban for not moving on from Donnie YEARS ago and the players for not making their damn shots.

To be clear, I labeled this offseason an epic failure before THJ/Bullock/WCS completely shit the bed to start the year.  Its more about the opportunity cost.  We desperately needed to improve the starting unit and push a starter or two to the bench.  That did not happen.  We desperately needed a secondary playmaker to take some load off Luka.  That did not happen.  It was a poor (Mavs like) offseason that looks worse with those guys underperforming.

The problem is that was our last chance.  What do you expect Nico/Cuban to do this summer?  They are going to have to go into the tax just to keep this team as it is.  Its a total mess.

---

What's worst than the worst when the worst includes stingy owners and a roster of misses and "futures" who have no future? 

If you're a die hard Rangers fan, I am not trying to push buttons!!! I'm not hard core Rangers (I used to be), so I could be missing something, but I can't see an ounce of hope in that situation.

Did you see what happened right before the lockout?  They literally spent half a billion dollars on a couple of really good players.  They are also likely going after Kershaw and another good player or two.  The tank is over in ranger land.  There is room for hope.

[cow]

What's worst than the worst when the worst includes stingy owners and a roster of misses and "futures" who have no future? 

If you're a die hard Rangers fan, I am not trying to push buttons!!! I'm not hard core Rangers (I used to be), so I could be missing something, but I can't see an ounce of hope in that situation.

I just think building a baseball team is harder than building a basketball team.  Cuban's been one of the worst in the basketball business for a while.  So...

[omahen]

IF they are willing to go into tax, its hard to imagine more than a full MLE signing and then paying whatever they have to for Brunson/DFS.  Not sure how much sense that makes if they don't make it out of the play-in this year.

If they hand out full MLE they are a subject to hard cap. So full MLE is very unlikely in any scenario where DFS and or Brunson stay. It is actually very unlikely in any scenario.

I think trading DFS and or Brunson with another salary (Powell, THJ or similar) for a really good player on a longer term deal that fits next to Luka and KP solves a lot of issues for Mavs. If of course there would be such a deal on the table.

[mvossman]

If they hand out full MLE they are a subject to hard cap. So full MLE is very unlikely in any scenario where DFS and or Brunson stay. It is actually very unlikely in any scenario.

I think trading DFS and or Brunson with another salary (Powell, THJ or similar) for a really good player on a longer term deal that fits next to Luka and KP solves a lot of issues for Mavs. If of course there would be such a deal on the table.

Your right.  The only chance for this team to make any kind of improvement is to trade Brunson or DFS or both plus maybe Green and filler to get an overpriced quality player.  They are completely screwed once they get to the Summer.

[KillerLeft]

I don't think Cuban wants to pay the tax ever again, but to be clear, I wouldn't expect him to do so next year anyway.  I feel like it would be borderline irresponsible. 

What I think a good outcome might look like is to either re-sign DFS and Brunson (both of whom are unquestionably on the short list of players helping the team effectively) to continue playing here or to use them to some effect that could potentially benefit the team. 

Since we know the tax line is a likely deterrent, it seems like some of the deadweight will have to be dumped in order to make the above paragraph possible.

To me, if DFS and Brunson are gone next year while KP, Powell, Bullock and THJ remain, that will be a bad outcome. If one or more of those players are artfully removed in such a way that DFS/Brunson can be re-signed, traded or sign-and-traded for quality additions, I might recoup some hope.

Further, Powell's short remaining contract status should make him movable, imo. KP has played much better this year than last, so getting off of him seems more possible than it did months ago, too. And THJ, I'm convinced, is simply not a fit in Kidd's offense like he was in Carlisle's. I think teams might actually want him if they think they can get the version from the last couple of seasons, and I think that version is gettable if he fits.

[cow]

What's the guess on DFS + Brunson?  25m combined?