Trade & FA 2023-24: Lavine Market Barely There| NOP Want Trae or Murray

[mvossman]

Thanks for this.  I need to somehow pin this location in my mind for future reference (Top of page 554, Top of page 554).

I was a little concerned DJJ might play himself past our ability to easily retain.  Of course, the post season isn’t over yet and short of a championship the season will end with disappointment and that disappointment will likely be directed at someone or a few someones who didn’t quite get it done.  So, TP MLE could still end up being in play.

Also, it takes a certain type of team to invest a full MLE contract in someone like DJJ.  Those types of teams who need that very specific role don’t tend to have money or space or the exception necessary under the current rules.  So, time will tell.  I appreciated the Moneyball article that painted some hope for retaining him from recent past examples (BTW, how smart does the Indy FO look for they way they creatively handled the Turner extension and structured the Bruce Brown deal as something that could be used as matching salary in a bigger deal without giving up anything core).

As to reacting to some of what I’ve read here.  I think it was Knutson who pointed out that trading THJ in the offseason is throwing away an asset that can be better used later.  I agree.  His expiring contract and a pick at the TDL is likely to be much more valuable than it is this summer.

Another thing I’m struggling with in some of the proposals that ship out THJ for air is we are making a trade to stand still (retain Jones).  Teams in our position tend to use outgoing assets to upgrade somewhere, not stand still.  It feels like THJ and something should be used to maximize the roster as opposed to creating space to just keep DJJ.

I'm kind of hoping DJJ will cost the full MLE from the standpoint that it bodes well for our playoff performance.

If our choice is to let DJJ walk, spend the tax MLE on someone else, and then trade (a likely disgruntled) Timmy at the TDL for expiring value, I think I lean towards dumping Timmy (and the second it takes) to hold onto DJJ.  I could see the argument the other way.

If we want to make a move to avoid standing still, I might consider sending out Timmy + 25 (lightly protected) for Grimes.  He just had a terrible season (so he is distressed) but he is a plus defender and quality volume shooter.  He is also only 23.  We already know Mavs have interest as they tried to trade Green for him.

[rocky164]

Thanks for this.  I need to somehow pin this location in my mind for future reference (Top of page 554, Top of page 554).

I was a little concerned DJJ might play himself past our ability to easily retain.  Of course, the post season isn’t over yet and short of a championship the season will end with disappointment and that disappointment will likely be directed at someone or a few someones who didn’t quite get it done.  So, TP MLE could still end up being in play.

Also, it takes a certain type of team to invest a full MLE contract in someone like DJJ.  Those types of teams who need that very specific role don’t tend to have money or space or the exception necessary under the current rules.  So, time will tell.  I appreciated the Moneyball article that painted some hope for retaining him from recent past examples (BTW, how smart does the Indy FO look for they way they creatively handled the Turner extension and structured the Bruce Brown deal as something that could be used as matching salary in a bigger deal without giving up anything core).

As to reacting to some of what I’ve read here.  I think it was Knutson who pointed out that trading THJ in the offseason is throwing away an asset that can be better used later.  I agree.  His expiring contract and a pick at the TDL is likely to be much more valuable than it is this summer.

Another thing I’m struggling with in some of the proposals that ship out THJ for air is we are making a trade to stand still (retain Jones).  Teams in our position tend to use outgoing assets to upgrade somewhere, not stand still.  It feels like THJ and something should be used to maximize the roster as opposed to creating space to just keep DJJ.

This makes total sense and I completely agree IF we can find a way to keep both THJ and DJJ.  If it’s one or the other, THJ has to go even if only for air.

[SleepingHero]

@TheDunkCentral
The Orlando Magic are interested in D’Angelo Russell, per
@KellyIko

[RGP1981]

@TheDunkCentral
The Orlando Magic are interested in D’Angelo Russell, per
@KellyIko

If they're interested in D'lo (bleh), then I would think that they'll be interested in THJ too. YAY!

[KillerLeft]

Unpopular post incoming:

If you want to save money right away for DJJ without giving up the deadline asset of Hardaway's expiring, I think dealing Gafford could be the answer.

He hasn't played well in the playoffs (yet), but he's still getting mentioned by the talking heads as a reason for the Mavs' strong finish. It's so beyond clear that Lively is the real reason for that, and Lively needs to be a 30 minutes per guy next year. Gafford gets paid too much for the type of role that's left over, because some (maybe a lot) of those other 18 minutes need to go to a Kleber type in order to stretch defenses, guard with more switching, etc - all the things we talk about here all the time. But, you do need a Gafford TYPE around for the games Lively misses or the odd night he gets in foul trouble. You know, just in case. But again, Gafford, while obviously not in the same class as Lively, is better than THAT role, and certainly gets paid more than a guy in that role should.

So, is there a way the Mavs can A) move Gafford for less money returning (for DJJ purposes) while also B) picking up a good replacement for him at 3rd center at minimum or maybe BAE salary level, and MAYBE even C) recoup some draft capital along the way?

I would be open to that type of thing, personally. It would obviously require identifying the right guy (better than McGee, for example).

[mvossman]

Unpopular post incoming:

If you want to save money right away for DJJ without giving up the deadline asset of Hardaway's expiring, I think dealing Gafford could be the answer.

He hasn't played well in the playoffs (yet), but he's still getting mentioned by the talking heads as a reason for the Mavs' strong finish. It's so beyond clear that Lively is the real reason for that, and Lively needs to be a 30 minutes per guy next year. Gafford gets paid too much for the type of role that's left over, because some (maybe a lot) of those other 18 minutes need to go to a Kleber type in order to stretch defenses, guard with more switching, etc - all the things we talk about here all the time.  But, you do need a Gafford TYPE around for the games Lively misses or the odd night he gets in foul trouble. You know, just in case. But again, Gafford, while obviously not in the same class as Lively, is better than THAT role, and certainly gets paid more than a guy in that role should.

So, is there a way the Mavs can A) move Gafford for less money returning (for DJJ purposes) while also B) picking up a good replacement for him at 3rd center at minimum or maybe BAE salary level, and MAYBE even C) recoup some draft capital along the way?

I would be open to that type of thing, personally. It would obviously require identifying the right guy (better than McGee, for example).

I think this makes a lot of sense from an asset management perspective.  But I don't think you can generate enough money for DJJ in a Gafford trade unless its a full salary dump.  I don't think you consider that unless you can get a first, and I am skeptical you are going to be able to do that.  

What might make sense is to do a Timmy salary dump, trade Gafford for a 6th man, sign DJJ and then pickup Bitadze for the BAE.

[KillerLeft]

I think this makes a lot of sense from an asset management perspective.  But I don't think you can generate enough money for DJJ in a Gafford trade unless its a full salary dump.  I don't think you consider that unless you can get a first, and I am skeptical you are going to be able to do that.  

What might make sense is to do a Timmy salary dump, trade Gafford for a 6th man, sign DJJ and then pickup Bitadze for the tax MLE.

Your instincts on value are at least as good as mine, but...didn't the Mavs just pay a first for Gafford? I mean, I know their cost was a pick swap with OKC (actually much more valuable than most firsts that change hands, but that's a different conversation), but they did that so OKC would send WAS a first, no? 

If he was worth a first at the deadline, and he has been more in the spotlight ever since, having praise heaped on him (some of it actually earned, at times), why, now, would you be skeptical that he's worth a first? Are you saying the Mavs made a bad deal?

[KillerLeft]

What might make sense is to do a Timmy salary dump, trade Gafford for a 6th man, sign DJJ and then pickup Bitadze for the tax MLE.

I'd be up for this, too, for the record, and I do expect Hardaway to be moved over the summer. 

I have a sneaky feeling that in the end, the guy who will be moved unexpectedly will be Green, not Gafford, but I'm just saying I'd personally want to kick the tires on what Gafford might be worth out there.

[omahen]

I think this makes a lot of sense from an asset management perspective.  But I don't think you can generate enough money for DJJ in a Gafford trade unless its a full salary dump.  I don't think you consider that unless you can get a first, and I am skeptical you are going to be able to do that.  

What might make sense is to do a Timmy salary dump, trade Gafford for a 6th man, sign DJJ and then pickup Bitadze for the tax MLE.

If Mavs make space for normal MLE, they won't have tax MLE to spend

[mvossman]

Your instincts on value are at least as good as mine, but...didn't the Mavs just pay a first for Gafford? I mean, I know their cost was a pick swap with OKC (actually much more valuable than most firsts that change hands, but that's a different conversation), but they did that so OKC would send WAS a first, no? 

If he was worth a first at the deadline, and he has been more in the spotlight ever since, having praise heaped on him (some of it actually earned, at times), why, now, would you be skeptical that he's worth a first? Are you saying the Mavs made a bad deal?

It was a late first in a historically bad draft.  Thats why it only cost a swap to get.  And the issue is that you are looking at one of very few teams that have the cap space (or trade exception) to bring him in without sending anything back.  That is going to limit your market.  Its possible you can get a first if there is a good fit out there, but I would not count on it given the limitations.

[mvossman]

If Mavs make space for normal MLE, they won't have tax MLE to spend

Yeah, I meant BAE

[KillerLeft]

Another thing I'll add about Gafford:

While I hope he's an impact player here next season, I'm really worried about him taking time from Lively, and I think that in the correctly sized role (relative to Lively), Gafford is probably the most likely guy on the roster to be "not worth his contract" moving forward. To me, that means that he's potentially much more valuable this summer than he will be for the next 1 1/2 years. Obviously, he'll be an expiring contract at the deadline the year after next, so it's not a death sentence to keep him or anything, but I don't look at this situation in Dallas for him and imagine he'll look like an asset at that remuneration level by the end of his time here, and I suspect he and his agent might WANT to move on soon (if Kidd does the right thing with Lively). I hope that makes sense.

Or, maybe Lively gets hurt in training camp and Gafford being here is a Godsend. Who knows?

[omahen]

Another thing I’m struggling with in some of the proposals that ship out THJ for air is we are making a trade to stand still (retain Jones).  Teams in our position tend to use outgoing assets to upgrade somewhere, not stand still.  It feels like THJ and something should be used to maximize the roster as opposed to creating space to just keep DJJ.

I think DJJ the way he has played so far in the playoffs is a crucial piece of the puzzle. Might be an all defense team candidate next season and is good enough offensively. I can easily see Mavs defense fall apart without him taking the point of attack. Based on this I think it is a must for Mavs to resign him and it is probably much cheaper to dump THJ to keep DJJ than trading THJ contract and assets to bring in a guy that might be as good or worse than DJJ. I think the starting five is great and I maintain Mavs problem is lack of a third creator (who can be decent on defense). Mavs offense in playoffs drop to alarmingly low levels anytime Luka or Irving sit. Exum is always a luxury we can keep and he can earn back his minutes, but I would not bet my next season on him.

I know you hate the idea, but as I said in one of the previous posts, my move would actually be to move Green into someones capspace for assets, if the option is available. If of course DJJ is willing to sign for the money this move would free. Than I look for trades using THJ deal as a basis. 

Or alternatively, THJ+Green (and assets) for useful player on a much lower salary.

[Moviemavguy]

Gafford hasn't played well in the playoffs yet? He averaged 11 pts, 7.5 rbds and 2 blocks on 61% shooting vs OKC.

Good grief, I knew there was a reason I don't post here. Just a bunch of nonsense.

[fifteenth]

Gafford hasn't played well in the playoffs yet?  He averaged 11 pts, 7.5 rbds and 2 blocks on 61% shooting vs OKC. 

Good grief, I knew there was a reason I don't post here.  Just a bunch of nonsense.

I KNOW RIGHT!

Way too much diversity of opinion and willingness to engage and attempt to understand what other people say around here.

[Knutsen]

Another thing I'll add about Gafford:

While I hope he's an impact player here next season, I'm really worried about him taking time from Lively, and I think that in the correctly sized role (relative to Lively), Gafford is probably the most likely guy on the roster to be "not worth his contract" moving forward. To me, that means that he's potentially much more valuable this summer than he will be for the next 1 1/2 years. Obviously, he'll be an expiring contract at the deadline the year after next, so it's not a death sentence to keep him or anything, but I don't look at this situation in Dallas for him and imagine he'll look like an asset at that remuneration level by the end of his time here, and I suspect he and his agent might WANT to move on soon (if Kidd does the right thing with Lively). I hope that makes sense.

Or, maybe Lively gets hurt in training camp and Gafford being here is a Godsend. Who knows?

Two thoughts on this.

First, we could also try to dump Kleber to a team with cap space. I know, we love him and he‘s holding up the well-established German guy from Wurzburg tradition - which is a beautiful city about an hour away from me by the way - but in reality he doesn’t fit Luka‘s timeline and is far too unreliable from an injury perspective for the 11 million he costs us, for example compared to DJJ. That way we keep Hardaway‘s contract until the deadline, where it will reach it‘s highest trade value and could get us a nice asset from a team that changes from trying to win the championship to trying to win the lottery midseason.

Second, I feel exactly the same about Lively needing 30+ minutes to maximize his growth gradient. But what if he‘s coming back from the offseason ready to get 10 of those minutes at power forward next to Gafford in the role of Kleber? Similar to Wemby or Chet, who are sometimes playing the four, but without their ballhandling tasks and more in a stay in the corner and stretch the floor kind of role? Problem solved, you can play physical and athletic for 48 minutes at center with Gafford and Lively each getting 30 minutes per night.

[dirkfansince1998]

In my opinion Gafford was borderline unplayable.

Lively + 11.8 best on the team
Gafford -9.7 worst on the team

It was a bad matchup for him because OKC could put him into pick and roll situations and isos against SGA. He obviously can be more useful in other matchups. He recovered really well in the Clippers series after Zubac bullied him in the first 2-3 games and returned the favor in the last two games.
But I don't think people are trying to make the case that Gafford sucks. The question that is offered is how the Mavs can create space under the second apron. One option is attaching assets to THJ and moving him. Another option is using an asset with positive value like Gafford or Green. 
Gafford is an option because Lively is the Mavs starting center of the future. Already better and with more upside. Even without Gafford the Mavs would still have solid backups like Kleber and Powell.
Same case can be made for Green. Mavs would still have Exum and potentially THJ for SG/SF minutes.

Personally I would prefer to use Hardy + 2025 1st + THJ and look for the best possible wing/forward. Trying to double down on DJJ/PJ instead of just resigning DJJ.

[Chicagojk]

I know everyone is waiting for my Washington Wizards takes, so here you go. If I were them I would explore #2 for Giddey and 12. I don't know much about these foreign prospects but Giddey would interest me. He may not be a good fit with Deni, but Washington should just look to acquire assets at this point. Not sure if OKC would jump on that but that pick hoarder Presti salivates on anything that improves his draft stash.

They really need to move Kuzma. I personally believe he would look much better in the PJ Washington type role. He is not suited to be a #1 or #2. In the west and the crazy east, teams are going to look to improve their rosters this summer with a lack of free agents. You should be able to get one good first round pick plus an asset or a second first round pick. They need to strike when the iron is hot. They need to continue to be bad next year. Next years draft looks much better.

[Chicagojk]

I personally think Gafford is going to be a backup soon. May not happen next year if this is working, but I think he is an elite backup center. What is their price tag for a backup good center. 12-13 million? I hope the mavs are proactive with resigning him before he gets to free agency. At the very least, he has a reasonable contract that can be moved down the road. Having two guys who are elite attacking the rim is one of the reasons why this has worked and clearly something Kidd wants. I am in no hurry to break it up.

[dirkfansince1998]

Two thoughts on this.

First, we could also try to dump Kleber to a team with cap space. I know, we love him and he‘s holding up the well-established German guy from Wurzburg tradition - which is a beautiful city about an hour away from me by the way - but in reality he doesn’t fit Luka‘s timeline and is far too unreliable from an injury perspective for the 11 million he costs us, for example compared to DJJ. That way we keep Hardaway‘s contract until the deadline, where it will reach it‘s highest trade value and could get us a nice asset from a team that changes from trying to win the championship to trying to win the lottery midseason.

Second, I feel exactly the same about Lively needing 30+ minutes to maximize his growth gradient. But what if he‘s coming back from the offseason ready to get 10 of those minutes at power forward next to Gafford in the role of Kleber? Similar to Wemby or Chet, who are sometimes playing the four, but without their ballhandling tasks and more in a stay in the corner and stretch the floor kind of role? Problem solved, you can play physical and athletic for 48 minutes at center with Gafford and Lively each getting 30 minutes per night.

I think you need to have a stretch five on the roster. Gafford is somewhat redundant. If Kleber is going out they need to add someone that can play his role (small ball five, versatile defender). It could work if the Mavs add another SF/PF player and free up some of PJs minutes. PJs best stretches with the Hornets featured him as the small ball five so he should be able to do it for 10-15 minutes per game.