ARTICLES & PODS: ROSTER OVERHAUL NEEDED

[dirkfansince1998]

Conley has always been positively impactful in on/off.  His career average is +6.2.  This season was double that.  His 108 D-Rating is very close to his 109 career average.  The bigger swing factor is typically more about who replaces you (or who you replace).  Playing with Gobert can help, especially to the extent your backup doesn't play with Gobert.  Dirk was always an on/off monster and no matter who you put with him, Dirk's backup was always going to look bad by this metric.

It is hard to prove this up with the data I have access to.  Perhaps Kamm can help here.  Conley had a 99.1 D-Rating when paired with Gobert.  He played very few minutes without Gobert, but the top lineups where this occured, the D Rating was actually better (small sample size alert).  Clarkson and Mitchell are sizable on/off negatives defensively.  Lineups with Gobert/Mitchell have a D rating of 103.7.  Clarkson/Gobert is 100.3.   You'd have to eliminate the overlap to really know, but that is tough because Utah typically has two of them on the court most of the time.

No doubt. Conley has been one of the best small guard defenders for most of his career. Would actually argue that he should have made more than one all defense 2nd team (2013). But I think at his current age he isn´t the point of attack defender that a lot of posters are asking for. Just like CP3 or Lowry he is more of a veteran leader that calls out plays, makes good decisions off the ball and plays great team defense. They aren´t asked to guard the best opposing perimeter scorer for 30+ minutes. That´s the job of younger guys like VanVleet, Anunoby, Bridges, Payne, O´Neal or Mitchell.
In my opinion that´s exactly what the Mavs need. Just want to make clear what to expect.

[KillerLeft]

In my opinion that´s exactly what the Mavs need. Just want to make clear what to expect.

Interesting. So you feel that Conley would make a significant impact here, then?

[cow]

Sorry, I wasn't talking about the reputation about his personality (I agree with you there). I was talking about the "he's not good enough to win" stuff. You might agree with that, too, but if so, that's where we start to disagree. I think his game and its impact have always been significantly underrated, possibly because of the personality stuff, in part. 




Tried to make it clear that I understood this to be your point (pretty obvious). 

MY point was: "who cares?" He will still only be Conley, not CP3, right? A very good player, and you can easily convince me he might be the best player the Mavs can get, but I don't think I'd see it as a victory since 1) he's unlikely to push the team over the top 2) his age makes it a temporary positive (even in the most optimistic of projections) and 3) he isn't likely to be some great trade asset with the combination of his age and the contract he's about to get. 

To my thinking, if Luka and Porzingis were fitting together like a glove and this team was super close to being a juggernaut, a Conley or Lowry might be perfect. I'm just saying that a younger guy (even if he's a little less established) makes more sense to me, personally.

I don't really want Conley either and I highly doubt he and Utah will part ways.

Oddly enough, you could easily talk me into two years of CP3.  If KP is still part of the future, I'm sure Kidd + CP3 can figure out how to best use him.

[dirkfansince1998]

Interesting. So you feel that Conley would make a significant impact here, then?

I prefer a longterm solution like Ball but right now Conley is still the better player. Just really difficult to find the intangibles of Lowry, CP3 or Conley in a younger player.

[KillerLeft]

Just really difficult to find the intangibles of Lowry, CP3 or Conley in a younger player.

I definitely agree with this! 

Still not sure it's the way I'd go (except for CP3 - I put him on that top tier) but then again, I suppose any kind of major talent infusion would probably look like positive change at this point.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Yeah, I don't get the fascination with these types, I really don't. 

Maybe my paradigm on this is too limiting, and maybe we should just be happy with the Mavs adding talent like Conley or Lowry, but to me, their star is 22, and he is already almost beating the freaking Clippers in a 7-game series! Why not add younger prospects around Luka who can grow with him and the team? I mean, it's a totally different story if we're talking about Kawhi Leonard or Dame Lillard - I'd take that top tier of guy at any age. But these tier-2 types who are well into their 30's don't make a lot of sense, imo, because the Mavs' roster isn't ready to take full advantage of them.

So three points on this:

1.  I've looked and for the life of me I can't find an unrestricted, under 25, strong defender who can create shots for himself and others and hit 3's at a high level (sorry for the snarky response).  Ball fits the age criteria, but is a step down from the Lowry, Conley and DeRozan tier.  He's kind of like KP in that "the idea" of Ball is better than the reality.  Now, if I'm going to argue that THT has upside, I have to allow for the same with Ball.  But so far, he's just a guy.  His PER and WS/48 his two years in NO are below average 14.1 and 0.72.  His TS% is way below average because 1. He's just an average shooter from 3 and 2. He NEVER gets to the line.  His FT Attempt Rate is 223rd in the NBA.  I'm a little afraid if we do get him, two years from now we will look back and recognize that he wasn't actually all that special.  Oh, and there is the whole restricted thing and the desire to go to NY or Chicago thing.

2. I'm not worried about the timeline thing at all.  The team that lost the Conference Finals in 03 (Finley/Nash) was different than the one that went to the Finals in 06 (Terry/Josh Howard) was different than the one that went back in 11 (Chandler, Marion, Kidd and Terry).  We are trying to get to the 03 version of Luka's career.  If we don't, we may not see the 06 version of Luka's career.  I don't really mind paying one of these older guys.  I'd much rather hand out two year deals, but timing them to expire three years from now when KP expires would provide an opportunity for a reset in 2024.  We have to walk before we can run which means we have to at the very least establish that we are a tier higher than where we are currently.    

3.  You've said it a couple of times since this post...maybe any kind of talent infusion would look like a positive change.  Perfect is the enemy of good and I don't see perfect anywhere on the horizon.  I've said it before, but I think if we signed Crowder instead of Phoenix, we could very well still be playing.  We caught LAC while they still had Kawhi and took them to seven.  It isn't hard to imagine one more competent defender who can hit a three putting us over the top.  Take Crowder off the Phoenix team and they aren't the same.  Marginal changes at the top of the west make a big difference.  You really aren't giving up anything swapping out Hardaway for Conley.  But, you are certainly gaining quite a bit.  Add that improvement plus go find the 2021 version of Crowder (I happen to like Batum, but there are other candidates) and we are arguably much better (and deeper).

By all accounts, things were pretty jacked up in Mav's Land behind the scenes.  Yet, once we got everyone healthy, this was the sixth best team in the NBA (Net Rating) with the sixth best O and 14th best D since March 1st (and it often appeared we were trying to lose games).  The teams above us all have some off-season issues (especially Utah if we steal Conley).  I think we have a shot of making the kind of change that gets us another couple of rounds in the playoffs.  I would absolutely love to add two superstars this summer, but I'm not willing to stand still waiting for that to happen when some marginal improvement would probably give Luka a fighting chance now.  I think we'd be there right already if we had simply added a net positive guy with an average PER or WS/48 each of the last two summers.

[VintagePejav2]

Spectacular post from DS, per usual. It would be funny to cash in (in 2021) on the goodwill achieved with Conley and Batum from 2016 free agency - hopefully no Whiteside this time. Also, I still give the Kawhi to Dallas possibility a 1% chance - there’s enough smoke (from more than just the KOC article) for me to not totally dismiss it.

[Mavs2021]

I prefer a longterm solution like Ball but right now Conley is still the better player. Just really difficult to find the intangibles of Lowry, CP3 or Conley in a younger player.

Also real tough to find young players missing 20 games every season and crucial parts of the play-offs.

Luka has all the intangibles himself. He´s basically winning 50% of tournaments and leagues he´s playing in, see Real Madrid and Slovenia. It´s not Luka or his leadership why we are not winning in the NBA. You simply give him a Lavine and Collins instead of a THJ and Kleber, and there are no intangibles in the world that save the Clippers or any other WC team. Only the zebras could stop us.

[dirkfansince1998]

Also real tough to find young players missing 20 games every season and crucial parts of the play-offs.

Luka has all the intangibles himself. He´s basically winning 50% of tournaments and leagues he´s playing in, see Real Madrid and Slovenia. It´s not Luka or his leadership why we are not winning in the NBA. You simply give him a Lavine and Collins instead of a THJ and Kleber, and there are no intangibles in the world that save the Clippers or any other WC team. Only the zebras could stop us.

We are talking about defense. Luka is great but he isn´t Draymond, LBJ or CP3 on that end. Not calling out plays or coaching his teammates. The Mavs have no defensive identity. Part of it is coaching. Other option is a player like Draymond/Smart/Butler/CP3. Looking at championship teams and contenders they always have one or two vet leaders in the rotation (not on the bench). Of course I would prefer to have them on vet min or MLE deals but I don´t think the Mavs are good enough to attract ring chasers.

The two teams in the finals rank 1st and 2nd on defense. 7th and 11th on offense. Defense matters. And more one-way players won´t solve the Mavs problems. That´s what they did in the past and it never worked. Offense was great. Let´s add Johnson, Richardson and Iwundu. Offense tanks. Let´s trade them for Redick.
Yes the Mavs need to find another playmaker but they also have to avoid defensive liabilities (Lavine, DeRozan). Same for the front court. I am all in on Collins. But only if KP is gone. Not enough touches for two max or near max front court players and big concerns about the defensive fit.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Yes the Mavs need to find another playmaker but they also have to avoid defensive liabilities (Lavine, DeRozan). Same for the front court. I am all in on Collins. But only if KP is gone. Not enough touches for two max or near max front court players and big concerns about the defensive fit.

It is kind of funny, there is always someone objecting to whichever player is brought up as a possible add here.  I'm probably out of step with most, but I agree that I wouldn't expend assets to bring LaVine here.  As good as he is, I'd also pass on putting Beal next to Luka...especially if KP is still here.  If you are "stuck" with Luka, KP and X as your big three, X has to play some defense.  Obviously Y and Z do also.  It points to how challenging roster building is going to be if KP isn't having a positive impact on the defensive end.  He can't cover the perimeter, so the other big has to.  If you don't want Luka covering the point of attack, then the other guard has to do it.  LaVine and Beal are guys you build around.  I'm not sure they are guys you add to a Luka backcourt.

Which begs the question, if not them, than who?  Collectively we are great at pointing out flaws.  This guy is too this.  That guy isn't good at that.  Sooner or later, given what we have to offer, we have to pick some flawed candidate and make our move.  If I'm holding KP/Luka/DFS as constants, what two players do I add (outside of the obvious all-star pipe dreams)?  The good news is DFS and Luka are multi-positional, so it can be just about anything but a center.  To me, Jrue Holiday is the ideal.  But, that isn't happening.  It is really hard to find anything close to all the things Holiday does for a team.  Conley probably comes closest.  Who else?  I can see the argument for Ball.  I just think he's soft.  You have to play with force in the playoffs and he doesn't do that at all.  We've seen the last two years how important the three point shot is for this spot.  If all that was necessary was to hit 3's, then just keep THJ.  But, this spot has to defend, create and hit 3's.

Filling the PF spot next to KP isn't easy either, but I can at least find some names.  It is a challenging position to defend as one night this spot will cover Anthony Davis and Zion and the next they may catch a small ball team with a creator like Kawhi or Randle at PF.  Covington, Boucher, Batum, Crowder and P. J. Washington are all guys who rate highly as defenders and can hit a 3 (though I'm not sure I trust Boucher as a 3 point shooter yet, especially from the corner).  I think you can make a defensive argument for Theis and Thaddeus Young, but the 3 point shooting isn't ideal.  NY has this guy Julius Randle...maybe you've heard of him...who almost out of nowhere started playing D and hitting 3's (clearly aliens did away with the original and replaced him with this version).  I was also surprised at how good of a year Tobias Harris had.  His situation might be instructive as it relates to Collins.  Harris at $20 million is someone you love.  Harris at a max is someone you are disappointed in.  Collins is a better overall player than most of the other PF's listed.  But, if you do that, then you are looking at Caruso or McConnell as your starting guard next to Luka.  I think I like the PF's listed above next to Conley better than I do McConnell or Caruso next to Collins.  All of this might change if you have Holmes instead of KP.  But that is a post for another day.

[Mavs2021]

All I can say is that you are all absolutely mental, if you rather have 33 year old Mike Conley for $30M than Lavine.

Conley has missed 1/3 of the Jazz regular season games over the last two years and 7 of 17 play-off games.

Luckily Utah has no choice but to pay Conley, so we´ll dodge that bullet.

[ItsGoTime]

Again great elaborated stuff Dan! That is very much the idea behind my post in the John Collins thread. Problem I think is MC won’t abandon the star seeking offseasons. If they went full bore out of the gate to get 3-5 of some of the less than stars that are in this FA crop, this team can be upgraded tremendously with more of a mix between young and old players. I made a list myself of about 15 players that I would love to see that same 3-5 on this team. 

I also like the idea of scrapping pretty much the whole big rotation and getting 3 that are THE rotation, with 3 that are ready for low energy/injury nights.

The team is in a position to offer roles and minutes to anyone depending on the direction Kidd/Nico wants to go with the on court play. We also can’t assume anything as far as positions/minutes for any player on this team. 

Even Luka with regard to position, Kidd just spent time with the player who is closest in ability to Luka in LeBron. LeBron is not put in the game as a PG.

We can’t assume KP is going to be the C if he is kept. 

This is why I am so far into wait and see with this cause at this point, RC-ball is gone. We’re starting a new era of Kidd-ball. Throw everything out the window as far as assumptions. Now, it could turn out that everything stays the same as far as that, but we can’t assume they will.

We also can’t assume changes in philosophy like KP not being a C are automatically bad. Wait and see, however, let’s continue talking about it with fresh perspective!

[HoosierDaddyKid]

I find it very hard to believe, Jae Crowder puts the Mavs over the top. Analytics be damned.  Can't do it.. He's a nice vet presence for Phoenix, but he's not the sole reason for their success, just as he wasn't for Miami. He's going to BTB finals though, must be living right.

[Kammrath]

All I can say is that you are all absolutely mental

If possible, try to be less "personal" in your reactions. Feel free to disagree and do it strongly, but make it less personal. Thanks.

[dirkfansince1998]

All I can say is that you are all absolutely mental, if you rather have 33 year old Mike Conley for $30M than Lavine.

Conley has missed 1/3 of the Jazz regular season games over the last two years and 7 of 17 play-off games.

Luckily Utah has no choice but to pay Conley, so we´ll dodge that bullet.

All I can say is that Lavine is not a free agent. So we´ll dodge that bullet as well. It wouldn´t be Lavine or Conley. It would be Lavine and whatever the Mavs need to give up to get him (probably 2-3 1sts and matching salary) and his contract vs Conley and his contract. If the Mavs make an all in kind of trade to get another high volume scorer it needs to be a no brainer. Not a defensive liability with mediocre impact metrics. Only my opinion. In the end only a couple of guys are in the no brainer category. All of them are under contract (except for Kawhi) and probably out of reach for the Mavs. That leaves the Mavs with limited options. A big contract for a young and talented player like Ball or Collins would be a risk. Same for any trade that lands the Mavs a flawed player. Signing an older but more proven player is just as big of a risk.

[ItsGoTime]

All I can say is that you are all absolutely mental, if you rather have 33 year old Mike Conley for $30M than Lavine.

Conley has missed 1/3 of the Jazz regular season games over the last two years and 7 of 17 play-off games.

Luckily Utah has no choice but to pay Conley, so we´ll dodge that bullet.

Dan wasn’t saying he would rather have Conley over Lavine. They were two unrelated thoughts.


He said Jrue is the perfect, impossible to get fit, so looked at guys that fit that mold to a lesser degree and are probably gettable this year.

He also said we don’t need to keep going down the one way player path to fixing perceived holes. It’s the finger in the crack of the dam analogy. Plug one hole and another springs up that has to be plugged.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I was also surprised at how good of a year Tobias Harris had.  His situation might be instructive as it relates to Collins.  Harris at $20 million is someone you love.  Harris at a max is someone you are disappointed in.   

This reminded me of something I saw where Philly moved Ben Simmons to PF, traded Tobias Harris and brought in a starting PG.  Maybe that is Lonzo (but NO doesn't exactly need Tobias with Zion there).  Maybe that is Lowry (but TOR doesn't exactly need Tobias with Siakam there).

Unlike Collins, Harris can create his own shot and hands out 3.5 assists per game with a 2/1 A/TO ratio.  His contract runs the same length as KP's.  He can defend the position, but rebounding next to KP will be an issue.  Our cap space might help us be a facilitator here.  Having a PF who can create his own shot also takes some of the pressure off of what is required of the guard spot next to Luka.  Now "all you need" is a point of attack defender who can hit 3's (instead of those things plus a playmaker).  

I'm not sure if Philly (or Simmons) would buy into this Simmons at PF theory.  I'm also not sure how much talent has to be traded from Dallas given Harris's massive contract.  But, I thought it was interesting.

[ItsGoTime]

Also, I’m really glad to see people not fully on board with the Lavine/Beal 3rd star route. Those one way stars have never sat right with me as targets, but not so much so that I wanted to get into it. This team with Luka needs more of a defensive star. I had hopes that KP would be that. I’m not fully out that he can’t be, but it’s further to impossibility than it is to correct at this point.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I find it very hard to believe, Jae Crowder puts the Mavs over the top. Analytics be damned.  Can't do it.. He's a nice vet presence for Phoenix, but he's not the sole reason for their success, just as he wasn't for Miami. He's going to BTB finals though, must be living right.

No one said he was the "sole reason".  What he may be is the marginal reason.  

Pretend you can plot talent on a 100 point scale.  Clearly Paul and Booker take up most of the points achieved by Phoenix (as did Butler and Bam last season).  In the West, there are a lot of teams bunched together (say between 87 and 90).  If you can replace a 3 with an 8, it makes a huge marginal difference.  Since Crowder was the last one in, his marginal difference is the one I'm focused on.  It was an addition to what they had (and could have been the marginal spread here had we offered him three years instead of the reported one).

Put another way, how do you feel about Phoenix if Saric is averaging 27 minutes a game instead of 17 this season and Jalen Smith is soaking up the 17 minutes Saric was getting.  Crowder doesn't have to be a star to be a difference maker.  He just has to provide tangibly more than Saric and Smith...which he does.

[Mavs2021]

Also, I’m really glad to see people not fully on board with the Lavine/Beal 3rd star route. Those one way stars have never sat right with me as targets, but not so much so that I wanted to get into it. This team with Luka needs more of a defensive star. I had hopes that KP would be that. I’m not fully out that he can’t be, but it’s further to impossibility than it is to correct at this point.

I think you are all completely wrong about the 2nd star route. We are talking about rejecting guys averaging 30/5/5 on borderline 50/40/90 shooting as full focus #1 options, that now get to play off Luka.

Our 2nd best scorer is THJ and our 2nd best all-around player might be an undrafted 27 year old on a four million dollar contract.

Furthermore all these guys (Lavine, Beal, Luka, Lillard) have to carry such a gigantic offensive workload that they simply have no energy to play defense, just like Harden in Houston. They spend all their energy getting shots off against double and triple teams. I have seen Luka really bother Kawhi one-on-one defensively in game seven. That means a lot more to me than him cruising through the regular season. He can play defense, if he puts his mind and body to it, but that requires him not putting on 17 moves to create an open dunk for Powell or an open 3pt attempt for Kleber on every possession for 48 minutes, because there is no 2nd creator and they are all completely one-dimensional offensive players. 

How about we get Luka a legit 30 on any given night scorer, see how that looks and then we worry about the defensive part.

Also it´s so disingenuous to point to the Bucks for an example. Like they would have sniffed the finals, if the All-Offense Brooklyn Nets had been healthy. They might not have gotten past a fully healthy Hawks team either (no Hunter, hurt Bogdanovic, hurt Young).