2024 Playoffs- 4th Round: Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks

[dirkfansince1998]

If Boston is switching everything, KP is about to look like a chump, as is Horford. Whether you like those guys or not, Luka will destroy them. Heck, so will Kyrie. Hardy, even, might have some success.

In the last Mavs-Celtics game they preswitched the pick and roll. Holiday on the center. Brown on ball vs Luka. Luka still put up numbers but they limited his playmaking. Mavs couldn't create any mismatches in the pick and roll. Luka had to do all the damage in isos against some of the best perimeter defenders in the league.
Mavs had a week to prepare for stuff like this. They need to find ways to create mismatches.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
I think spreading the floor with Kleber will be a part of the series, but only as a means of making the choice to use Kleber as the DEFENSIVE center viable on the other end, not as a way to combat some sort of defensive dominance by Porzingis inside.  

This is wisdom.  Part of being able to impose our will with our bigs has been that the other teams have had people we could cheat off of (often a big).  That isn't the case here.  Everyone on the Celtics can make you pay from deep.  I felt pretty confident about the Minnesota series because I could see matchups that would allow our stars to thrive offensively and I could easily see how our D could stop their stars.  I'm confident in our ability to score against Boston, but they present the biggest challenge yet to our D.  There will be games where they are hitting shots that we just won't have an answer for (hopefully not four of those games).

I think the most interesting matchup is Lively vs. KP.  If we win this series it is probably because Lively really is a star and we just don't yet understand how good he really is.  If we lose this series it is probably because Gafford/Maxi weren't enough for KP/Horford.  I can see us winning the Lively minutes.  I'm a little worried about the non-Lively minutes.  Part of our formula so far has been to steal one of the first two games.  If we go down 0-2 we might have to blink and be the team that makes the first big adjustment (which would be much more Maxi at center and much less Gafford).  As you say, if this happens the issue will be at the defensive end for Dallas.

[KillerLeft]

In the last Mavs-Celtics game they preswitched the pick and roll. Holiday on the center. Brown on ball vs Luka. Luka still put up numbers but they limited his playmaking. Mavs couldn't create any mismatches in the pick and roll. Luka had to do all the damage in isos against some of the best perimeter defenders in the league.
Mavs had a week to prepare for stuff like this. They need to find ways to create mismatches.

In addition to the week of prep, playing the same opponent enough times in a row to know what they're trying to accomplish, etc, etc...

Dallas has ALSO come a long way since then in terms of players understanding and accepting their roles (which is really the thing that separates this Dallas team from last season's) and I feel (perhaps somewhat naively) like they've seen variations of that strategy enough from other teams not to be bumfuzzled by it. 

But yeah, this is going to be a test. It seems like you're more worried about the Dallas offense. I'm far, far more worried about their defense. That we're both worried about completely different things might not be the best sign, but there's plenty for Boston to be worried about, too.

[Winter]

There's a world in which Porzingis falls on his face, offensively, and the Mavs' first, go-to defensive strategy crushes Boston's offense. We know that world exists, because we just watched Holmgren not reach a PPP on open shots sufficient to pull the Mavs' bigs out of the paint. I so hope that's the world we're about to live in, and being the "Porzingis sucks" truther that I am, I kind of find it likely, even, at least to start the series. 

I just want to add one thing to this. If KP is rusty or slow, he could be foul prone. It's not something you bank on, but his fouls could easily determine his minutes in some these games.

[KillerLeft]

I just want to add one thing to this. If KP is rusty or slow, he could be foul prone. It's not something you bank on, but his fouls could easily determine his minutes in some these games.

Great point. 

I think getting to Horford early and often is key, not because I'm scared of Porzingis (I actually think Horford is better) but because Horford is OLD. The more minutes they count on him, the better, imho.

[dirkfansince1998]

In addition to the week of prep, playing the same opponent enough times in a row to know what they're trying to accomplish, etc, etc...

Dallas has ALSO come a long way since then in terms of players understanding and accepting their roles (which is really the thing that separates this Dallas team from last season's) and I feel (perhaps somewhat naively) like they've seen variations of that strategy enough from other teams not to be bumfuzzled by it. 

But yeah, this is going to be a test. It seems like you're more worried about the Dallas offense. I'm far, far more worried about their defense. That we're both worried about completely different things might not be the best sign, but there's plenty for Boston to be worried about, too.

To be honest I am worried about both. But I think the Mavs have more counter moves on defense. Can go big/small. Even had some success with zone defense against the Wolves and Clippers.
Defense has carried them to the finals. Offense has been shaky against lesser opponents.

[KillerLeft]

This is wisdom.  Part of being able to impose our will with our bigs has been that the other teams have had people we could cheat off of (often a big).  That isn't the case here.  Everyone on the Celtics can make you pay from deep.  I felt pretty confident about the Minnesota series because I could see matchups that would allow our stars to thrive offensively and I could easily see how our D could stop their stars.  I'm confident in our ability to score against Boston, but they present the biggest challenge yet to our D.  There will be games where they are hitting shots that we just won't have an answer for (hopefully not four of those games).

I think the most interesting matchup is Lively vs. KP.  If we win this series it is probably because Lively really is a star and we just don't yet understand how good he really is.  If we lose this series it is probably because Gafford/Maxi weren't enough for KP/Horford.  I can see us winning the Lively minutes.  I'm a little worried about the non-Lively minutes.  Part of our formula so far has been to steal one of the first two games.  If we go down 0-2 we might have to blink and be the team that makes the first big adjustment (which would be much more Maxi at center and much less Gafford).  As you say, if this happens the issue will be at the defensive end for Dallas.

Yep, this is essentially my post in two infinitely more succinct and logical paragraphs. Same page. The answer to these questions IS the series, I think.

[Smitty]

In addition to the week of prep, playing the same opponent enough times in a row to know what they're trying to accomplish, etc, etc...

Dallas has ALSO come a long way since then in terms of players understanding and accepting their roles (which is really the thing that separates this Dallas team from last season's) and I feel (perhaps somewhat naively) like they've seen variations of that strategy enough from other teams not to be bumfuzzled by it. 

But yeah, this is going to be a test. It seems like you're more worried about the Dallas offense. I'm far, far more worried about their defense. That we're both worried about completely different things might not be the best sign, but there's plenty for Boston to be worried about, too.

I’m 100% with you on this one. The Mavs won’t have problems scoring. It’s the defense that gives me some concern. That’s why I see Maxi playing a lot of 5. People won’t be happy but switching and perimeter defense will play a bigger role than rim protection in this one. KP isn’t dominating in the post. Horford isn’t dominating in the post. Tatum and Brown aren’t getting half their points at the rim.

Whoever the C’s hide KP on, whether it’s DJJ or PJW, Luka will just run the PnR with that guy and cook KP like he cooked Gobert. I do expect them to slow down Kyrie a bit like OKC did but Luka and “the others” will get good looks consistently.

[Winter]

Some information of Note;

Jason at Hoops Tonight has a "mailbag" session today where he discussed his criteria for determining "best player". Pretty interesting. Lost of Luka talk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r8f4Ey7bkw

Jason will have a new video on Monday on Boston... and Tuesday on Dallas.

[KillerLeft]

Whoever the C’s hide KP on, whether it’s DJJ or PJW, Luka will just run the PnR with that guy and cook KP like he cooked Gobert. I do expect them to slow down Kyrie a bit like OKC did but Luka and “the others” will get good looks consistently.

This ^^^ is a tool in the Dallas belt that we haven't seen much of, but that we know exists. We saw a game in the Minnesota series (I want to say it was game 1, but not sure) where they ran pick and pop with PJ like 8 times in the first half and he missed like 7 of the shots. That's not ideal, but I believe he will do better, given time and experience. Hopefully in this series.

Unfortunately, having to go to a strategy like this with either PJ or DJJ probably becomes yet another reason Gafford (and possibly even Lively, at times) might need to sit more, because to truly unlock actions with those two guys (guys who are not KAT, Dirk, or anything in between), you kind of need the OPTION for them to roll. I can see either of them SHREDDING Boston in the short roll, IF Kleber is the 5.

[KillerLeft]

MEANINGFUL BASKETBALL TALK IN THE MONTH OF JUNE!!!!

[Smitty]

This ^^^ is a tool in the Dallas belt that we haven't seen much of, but that we know exists. We saw a game in the Minnesota series (I want to say it was game 1, but not sure) where they ran pick and pop with PJ like 8 times in the first half and he missed like 7 of the shots. That's not ideal, but I believe he will do better, given time and experience. Hopefully in this series.

Unfortunately, having to go to a strategy like this with either PJ or DJJ probably becomes yet another reason Gafford (and possibly even Lively, at times) might need to sit more, because to truly unlock actions with those two guys (guys who are not KAT, Dirk, or anything in between), you kind of need the OPTION for them to roll. I can see either of them SHREDDING Boston in the short roll, IF Kleber is the 5.

I don’t think it matters much who is at the 5 offensively if DJJ or PJW are setting the ball screen and KP blitzes. Both PJ and DJ are good out of the short roll and having Gaff/Lively in the dunker spot with a smaller wing/guard on them is just fine. If they switch then Luka can iso KP. If they drop then you have a small on Luka’s back in the paint and KP having to do what Gobert did, flinch and give up the dunk or hang back and give up the 6 footer to Luka. Again, I don’t see offense being an issue with Luka starting to look like Luka again. There’s nothing they can do to stop a good look. It’ll come down to make/miss as always.

[KillerLeft]

I don’t think it matters much who is at the 5 offensively if DJJ or PJW are setting the ball screen and KP blitzes. 

That's where we disagree. PJ and DJJ have both been far better offensively than I expected, but the few times they've looked silly have been when they've driven into congested paint (because a center was in the dunker spot) and either tried to force a shot up to draw a foul (DJJ) or tried an ill-fated pass to the center in the dunker spot (PJ's worst moment from Game 5 of the past series). 

It's not finding multiple defenders in the paint as they get close that's the problem, it's that those defenders can easily be in the paint because there's a guy in the dunker spot. Luka and Kyrie can manipulate them into passing angles quickly and calmly, but PJ and DJJ cannot. Without a guy in both corners, that becomes a winning strategy for Boston pretty quickly, to my mind.

Moving forward, I expect PJ Washington to become a much more complete offensive weapon for this team. I think people will be shocked at how much improvement he shows as soon as next season. But in this series, I think they need to make those reads really easy.

[Smitty]

That's where we disagree. PJ and DJJ have both been far better offensively than I expected, but the few times they've looked silly have been when they've driven into congested paint (because a center was in the dunker spot) and either tried to force a shot up to draw a foul (DJJ) or tried an ill-fated pass to the center in the dunker spot (PJ's worst moment from Game 5 of the past series). 

It's not finding multiple defenders in the paint as they get close that's the problem, it's that those defenders can easily be in the paint because there's a guy in the dunker spot. Luka and Kyrie can manipulate them into passing angles quickly and calmly, but PJ and DJJ cannot. Without a guy in both corners, that becomes a winning strategy for Boston pretty quickly, to my mind.

The difference last series is that Minny had another 7 footer guarding the dunker spot. This time it’s 6’4 white or holiday or 6’7 Brown or Tatum.

[KillerLeft]

The difference last series is that Minny had another 7 footer guarding the dunker spot. This time it’s 6’4 white or holiday or 6’7 Brown or Tatum.

That's a fair point, and even if the pass isn't easier (enough) there would be an advantage for Dallas on the offensive glass in the event of a miss...

...but I, personally, would opt for the side of the easiest possible read and pass. I think turnovers, which have haunted Dallas through this postseason, will be something they finally won't be able to overcome against this opponent, and both PJ and DJJ driving into the paint have been an excellent way of generating turnovers, as has Gafford touching the ball on the short roll with literally any offensive alignment.

[Chicagojk]

I haven't thought this all the way through, but I sort of feel outside of short runs that playing Kleber as the small ball 5 is playing right into the Celtics hands.  I am just not sure how effective Gafford will be though.  One of the benefits we have gotten playing with a big most of the time is it really stresses a defense.    You may not have that 5 out feel with a totally spread floor but playing a big provides a ton of benefits.    I just think our secret sauce is while the court is not fully spread, it really stresses a defense out.  You need to pick your poison of letting Luka get into the paint to finish (very high percentage shot plus fouls), a rim run (an extremely high percentage shot), and a corner three (good percentage shot plus this also leads to offensive rebounds).    I can argue this is more scary for teams than a totally spread floor.  Especially with a guy like LUka. 

Two issues though.  Boston will switch a lot.  Typically I am not the biggest fan when we hunt for the switch and the rest of the players are watching.  So I hope we have a lot of movement on offense.  This could also lead to Boston getting lost on some switches.  This is when Luka excels.  I like those double screens we run.  It gives Luka more options. 

Defense is the big concern though.    Dallas will need to be really connected on defense (they have been) but Boston can still give you hell with their offense.    In a perfect world, we really limit the easy baskets and at least contest most of their threes.  Is that a winning formula?  Not so sure, but if we can tread water with Gafford for 15-20 minutes, be positive with Lively for around 24 and have a nice short burst with Maxi for the rest, then I think that is what I envision.

Also, I can't remember the exact conversation, but Zach Lowe was discussing the Celtics defense.   They have allowed 71% at the rim in the playoffs, but only 29% from the corner three.   Lowe thought if KP returns this number at the rim will go down.   He said though this could be an area for Dallas to exploit.   No one is better creating corner threes than Luka.  So if they can still shoot a high percentage at the rim but also shoot better from the corner three than Boston has given up so far, that could be an area Dallas takes advantage of.

[Chicagojk]

One last thing, Boston has been clutch in these playoffs. I still want them to prove they can do it in the biggest stage. Late in games, they tend to get very stagnant. In a close game, I would love to see DJJ on Tatum with Lively at the rim. Make Tatum make tough shots off the dribble. If he passes, make them his tougher three point shots late in games.

[The Jom]

The claims here that Boston has more talent really grate on me. Go post that on a Celtics board. This is a super-talented Mavs team. And we’ll know soon enough who is more talented.

I’m also surprised that there isn’t more discussion of the Celt’s lack of size. Horford is an all-time great role player. But he’s 37. Zing has some real strengths. But also some huge weaknesses (known well on this board). Plus he’s not 100% (ever). And after these fellas, who’s gonna protect the rim? (Please tell me Luke Kornet! Oh please!)

Sure, 2 rim protectors ordinarily might seem like enough. But again, old, injured, and in Zing’s case soft. This against a 2-headed monster that sprints down the court every offensive possession and batters you on every possible rebound. Making it impossible to keep your legs into the 4th quarter and effectively killing the argument of those who might otherwise claim best-shooting-big-man status.

Chet from deep, regular season: 37%, conf semis: 22%.
KAT from deep, regular season: 42%, conf finals 24%.
Zing/Horford from deep, regular season: 38/42%, finals ???

Don’t even let me get started on Derrick White. An 8-year vet who only became an above-average shooter last year. And to this day is streaky as Hardaway Jr. Sure, he’s shot the ball well these playoffs. (In large part because Miami seemed to scheme for him to shoot 25 of em in the last 2 games of the first round.) But still, that incudes games in which he went 2/9 (Pacers gm 4), 2/8 (Pacers gm 3), 1/4 (Cavs gm 4), 1/8 (Cavs gm 2), 2/7 (Heat gm 3). So whatever. But sure, he’s a fine player.

As for keys to the series, I see just one. His name is Luka. He either supernovas or he doesn’t. In the biggest moment so far in an already very big career. Now, who wants to bet against that? Not me.

Go Mavs!

[RGP1981]

Don’t even let me get started on Derrick White. An 8-year vet who only became an above-average shooter last year. And to this day is streaky as Hardaway Jr. Sure, he’s shot the ball well these playoffs. (In large part because Miami seemed to scheme for him to shoot 25 of em in the last 2 games of the first round.) But still, that incudes games in which he went 2/9 (Pacers gm 4), 2/8 (Pacers gm 3), 1/4 (Cavs gm 4), 1/8 (Cavs gm 2), 2/7 (Heat gm 3). So whatever. But sure, he’s a fine player.

Agreed with the rest of your post... but I have to say, Derrick White is a darn fine role player. Like the MJ of role players in today's league. I wanted him and Caruso both, before they moved to their respective teams, because I think they would have fit so good with Luka. The Mavs need to find more quality guys like them in the draft, who have high bball IQ.

Go Mavs!

[HoosierDaddyKid]

This is a good point, and it will be a huge talking point this week on the analyst circuit. 

Let me just say that with how Luka is playing right now, I'm not worried about Tatum or Brown guarding him. I would've said something totally different during the LAC/OKC series, but thankfully, he's looking more and more like himself with each passing day and now has a week of rest. They might make it a little tougher at times than McDaniels, but that will come at the heavy cost of foul trouble, reduced energy on offense, and ultimately, I don't expect that either can shut Luka down enough to make it a winning proposition in the wash of both ends. 

But...

I have a little bit of concern that Holiday and White might both be uniquely qualified to slow Kyrie down. And, if Luka does beat Tatum and/or Brown, as I expect he will, they'll try Holiday on him (probably will, anyway, at least for stretches). That might put Tatum and/or Brown on Kyrie for important stretches. THAT could be a problem.

So ultimately, while I'm not exactly shaking in my boots over the "who guards Luka" aspect of it, I totally agree that Boston having FOUR plus defenders gives them lots of options that could potentially make life extremely difficult for the Mavs, in general. In the worst case scenario of this series, I envision a lot of DJJ and/or Josh Green attacking the paint off the dribble, and we all know how most of those possessions end.

I agree with some of your points, Boston set records for offensive efficiency this season, but I think you're selling Boston's defense short. They finished 2nd behind Minnesota in defensive efficiency despite not having a lot of size. When they need stops, they find a way to get them. Should be a great series, let the chess match begin.