Trade & FA 2023-24: 76ers Believe They Have A Shot at PG13

[mvossman]

https://clutchpoints.com/rumor-suns-mavs...-nba-draft

Story on Marc Stein's reporting back in late June.

I have a really hard time believing its true.  Its hard to believe Cuban would not be chomping at the bit to make that trade.  If this really is true, it says a lot about the red flags around Ayton.  Maybe the Mavs didn't want to have another Wood/KP on their hands.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I mean, I'm not trying to say it's true or not. Just that it was reported back around the time free agency started by Stein (and I want to say Chris Haynes also confirmed the rumor on their podcast). I feel like there was plenty of discussion about it at the time on this board, would be surprised if there wasn't considering how many folks on here share news from Stein's substack but maybe it just flew under the radar. I certainly remember being shocked we wouldn't simply remove Javale from the package if that's all it took which speaks to your point about red flags around Ayton. Funny looking back at it now since we ended up stretch waiving Javale anyway.

[omahen]

I mean, I'm not trying to say it's true or not.  Just that it was reported back around the time free agency started by Stein (and I want to say Chris Haynes also confirmed the rumor on their podcast).  I feel like there was plenty of discussion about it at the time on this board, would be surprised if there wasn't considering how many folks on here share news from Stein's substack but maybe it just flew under the radar.  I certainly remember being shocked we wouldn't simply remove Javale from the package if that's all it took which speaks to your point about red flags around Ayton.  Funny looking back at it now since we ended up stretch waiving Javale anyway.

I thought that it can't be true because of the JaVale part. That something like that can't be a hold up if you think there is value in him. If you think there is not, you don't consider him at all, imho

[Mavs2021]

I thought that it can't be true because of the JaVale part. That something like that can't be a hold up if you think there is value in him. If you think there is not, you don't consider him at all, imho

Also Ayton has re-trade value. You do that trade just based on Ayton´s value for rebuilding teams. His contract is also only one year longer than THJ/Holmes, too. Maybe it was Cuban being very cheap again. 

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Also Ayton has re-trade value. You do that trade just based on Ayton´s value for rebuilding teams. His contract is also only one year longer than THJ/Holmes, too. Maybe it was Cuban being very cheap again. 

But didn't we just see what his trade value is (which makes the Hardaway/Holmes rumor a little more believable although I think there was plenty more to it than simply "please take McGee out of the package")?  Looks like, at least to the Suns, it was just a couple of rotation players and not even ones on great contracts.  And from the Mavs perspective, you make that trade assuming it works and not banking on re-trade value because if this is Ayton's trade NOW then imagine what it is if he ends up having another "meh" sort of season and shows more maturity issues.  If he turned out to play well for the Mavs then re-trading never enters the equation anyway.

I would also say that framing it as "only one year longer than THJ/Holmes" doesn't really do the size on Ayton's contract justice.  You'd be taking on an additional 40M overall which is why I assume the Mavs would have been adamant about including McGee in any deal.  Plenty of reasons to complain about Cuban being cheap but this is a deal that I'm glad he walked away from.  I would say the Suns know more about Ayton than anyone on this board and the fact that they were so eager to get off that contract speaks volumes.  I would also say that the Hardaway/Holmes package will most likely be shopped all the way into February and I think that there are better targets than a 100M center littered with red flags after we just drafted someone at the same position.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I've said since Jrue was available in NOLA that he's the PERFECT backcourt mate for Luka.  Now with Kyrie here for at least 3 years, that changes.  While I consider Luka a PSF, I think it's ideal to use his size as an advantage and go with only 1 guard.  Jrue would be a tremendous J.Green upgrade.  I'd much rather Eason, however, who could be had for a lot less than Jrue, and go bigger.

[KillerLeft]

MacMahon, on the latest episode of the hoop collective, outright stated AGAIN that “PHX was willing to trade Ayton for Tim Hardaway Jr and Rahsaan Holmes on draft night.” That’s a direct quote, and wasn’t questioned by Windhorst or Bontemps.

I think the Mavs really killed that deal because the Suns wouldn’t also accept McGee’s contract.

[ItsGoTime]

MacMahon, on the latest episode of the hoop collective, outright stated AGAIN that “PHX was willing to trade Ayton for Tim Hardaway Jr and Rahsaan Holmes on draft night.” That’s a direct quote, and wasn’t questioned by Windhorst or Bontemps.

I think the Mavs really killed that deal because the Suns wouldn’t also accept McGee’s contract.

Well, I’m glad they didn’t make the trade right now. If he goes to Por and plays lights out, however, I will admit I was wrong on that one. I do think there is a decent chance that will happen too. With it being a draft day trade, the draft could have gone a completely different direction too (adding another good wing/SF talent at #12) which might have helped make that offseason timeline a success as well.

[KillerLeft]

Well, I’m glad they didn’t make the trade right now. If he goes to Por and plays lights out, however, I will admit I was wrong on that one. I do think there is a decent chance that will happen too. With it being a draft day trade, the draft could have gone a completely different direction too (adding another good wing/SF talent at #12) which might have helped make that offseason timeline a success as well.

I agree, because I think Ayton is basically highly paid garbage. But man, if I were one of his fans around here, I’d be pretty upset, especially since they ended up waiving McGee anyway.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Well, I’m glad they didn’t make the trade right now. If he goes to Por and plays lights out, however, I will admit I was wrong on that one. I do think there is a decent chance that will happen too. With it being a draft day trade, the draft could have gone a completely different direction too (adding another good wing/SF talent at #12) which might have helped make that offseason timeline a success as well.

I have a feeling if we ended up with Ayton on draft day that we may have just reached on OMax at 12.  Sounds like the plan to trade back with the Hawks had OMax in mind at 15.

[Mavs2021]

MacMahon, on the latest episode of the hoop collective, outright stated AGAIN that “PHX was willing to trade Ayton for Tim Hardaway Jr and Rahsaan Holmes on draft night.” That’s a direct quote, and wasn’t questioned by Windhorst or Bontemps.

I think the Mavs really killed that deal because the Suns wouldn’t also accept McGee’s contract.

You all trying to wind me up, aren´t you?   Though got to give credit that somehow Cuban managed to make signing McGee to a three year deal not the worst (non)-transaction that McGee was involved in his glorious Mavs career.

[Chicagojk]

That is pretty interesting, if so. Especially for two guys who are not in our long term plans. I read also that PHX also wanted a pick and/or Green, so who knows.

Mavs were pretty clear this offseason that they wanted to totally rebuild their center rotation. If Holmes is not a factor, they did not do that this offseason.

I think an Ayton gamble would have been a solid roll of the dice...especially if that was the offer.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Anyone else hear Tim Macmahon on the hoop collective say Dallas could have had Ayton for THJ and Holmes over the summer?  Is that what he said or is it being reported wrong?

I have Ayton at a $20m/yr player.  This makes for $41.9m of dead money in his 3yr $101.9m contract.

Let's say THJ's value at $10m/yr, leaving $13.9m dead of his 2yr $33.9m contract.  Let's say Holmes' entire $24.8m contract is dead.

Simple math would put Ayton's dead money at $3.2m in total, (savings in the first 2 years, dead money in the 3rd).

I'm not an Ayton fan, but to forgo 3 years of Ayton for $3.2m of dead money is really, really stupid.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-rankings...iid-jokic/

Pretty good list.  I was surprised KAT and AD aren't listed as Cs.  Turner at 6 was surprising, as well as Ayton edging out J.Allen.

[Chicagojk]

Josh Primo signing a two way contract with the Clippers. I felt he was overdrafted by San Antonio, from what I saw. But that is a solid gamble on a guy who has run into some trouble. Still very young.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

Josh Primo signing a two way contract with the Clippers.  I felt he was overdrafted by San Antonio, from what I saw.  But that is a solid gamble on a guy who has run into some trouble.  Still very young.

Dude exposed himself to a Spurs staffer. He's lucky he got another chance.

[Mavs2021]

That is pretty interesting, if so.  Especially for two guys who are not in our long term plans.  I read also that PHX also wanted a pick and/or Green, so who knows.

Mavs were pretty clear this offseason that they wanted to totally rebuild their center rotation.  If Holmes is not a factor, they did not do that this offseason. 

I think an Ayton gamble would have been a solid roll of the dice...especially if that was the offer.

I just don´t get what they are doing. It´s like they still don´t understand asset management at all.

if the Ayton deal goes through, here is the money allocated to the center rotation over the next two seasons:

Ayton 32.4 / 34.0
Lively 4.7 / 5.0
Powell 4.0 / 4.0
McGee 2.3 / 2.3
________
Totals: 41.4 / 45.3

If you apply the luxury tax threshold as the hard cap, it´s 25% and 26% for the positional salary.

Given what we are already locked into at PF....

Williams 12.4 / 13.0
Kleber 11.0 / 11.0
Omax 2.7 / 2.8
________
Totals 26.1 / 26.8

....you land bang on 40% of positional spending for the big positions.

That´s before you even get into the argument that Ayton is productive former #1 pick. They maintain re-trade value for at least one more trade. And there is a chance, with his seemingly good relationship with Luka, that he unlocks another gear and makes the Suns look dumb.

And if not you buy yourself time to develop Lively before you trade Ayton with a year left on his contract.

[KillerLeft]

That´s before you even get into the argument that Ayton is productive former #1 pick. They maintain re-trade value for at least one more trade. And there is a chance, with his seemingly good relationship with Luka, that he unlocks another gear and makes the Suns look dumb.

And if not you buy yourself time to develop Lively before you trade Ayton with a year left on his contract.

You might be right. That POV is certainly not a rare one.

For me, I just don’t see ANY indication that he’ll be a good defender or a good complementary offensive player (at least not a content one). He seems to want a  featured role with post touches, yet I see no evidence of those being merited by skill.

I just don’t like the player he is or even the player he’s trying to become, really. There’s a chance he gets better in a new situation, sure, and that will make the price the Mavs walked away from look silly in a certain light. But, the downside is that you’d have to PLAY him and make PLAYSTYLE concessions to get there. I get why they’re not interested in that.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I just don´t get what they are doing. It´s like they still don´t understand asset management at all.

if the Ayton deal goes through, here is the money allocated to the center rotation over the next two seasons:

Ayton 32.4 / 34.0
Lively 4.7 / 5.0
Powell 4.0 / 4.0
McGee 2.3 / 2.3
________
Totals: 41.4 / 45.3

If you apply the luxury tax threshold as the hard cap, it´s 25% and 26% for the positional salary.

Given what we are already locked into at PF....

Williams 12.4 / 13.0
Kleber 11.0 / 11.0
Omax 2.7 / 2.8
________
Totals 26.1 / 26.8

....you land bang on 40% of positional spending for the big positions.

That´s before you even get into the argument that Ayton is productive former #1 pick. They maintain re-trade value for at least one more trade. And there is a chance, with his seemingly good relationship with Luka, that he unlocks another gear and makes the Suns look dumb.

And if not you buy yourself time to develop Lively before you trade Ayton with a year left on his contract.

If you look at it from a in/out contract perspective, it's even more foolish not to do it...


I have Ayton at a $20m/yr player.  This makes for $41.9m of dead money in his 3yr $101.9m contract.

Let's say THJ's value at $10m/yr, leaving $13.9m dead of his 2yr $33.9m contract.  Let's say Holmes' entire $24.8m contract is dead.

Simple math would put Ayton's dead money at $3.2m in total, (savings in the first 2 years, dead money in the 3rd).

I'm not an Ayton fan, but to forgo 3 years of Ayton for $3.2m of dead money is really, really stupid.


The only explanation is that the Mavs would rather not have Ayton than have him, regardless of price.

[Mavs2021]

You might be right. That POV is certainly not a rare one.

For me, I just don’t see ANY indication that he’ll be a good defender or a good complementary offensive player (at least not a content one). He seems to want a  featured role with post touches, yet I see no evidence of those being merited by skill.

I just don’t like the player he is or even the player he’s trying to become, really. There’s a chance he gets better in a new situation, sure, and that will make the price the Mavs walked away from look silly in a certain light. But, the downside is that you’d have to PLAY him and make PLAYSTYLE concessions to get there. I get why they’re not interested in that.

You could argue that you can feature him with the second unit, where he can actually get the touched fed by Luka or Kyrie, while taking off the scoring pressure of our 2nd unit 3&D guys. He´s still an 18/10/2 guy on 59% FG. Last time a Mavs center did that, Kidd was probably still in high school.

The only downside for me is his attitude. As you say, that you have to potentially alter your play-style to keep him happy and engaged, because he´s not willing to "change" like Taiwan Dwight. At the same time, I´d argue he´d still have more trade value than a Holmes/THJ package.