2024 Playoffs- 4th Round: Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks

[mvossman]

Just feels like this is going to be a real difficult Gafford series.  If Celtics can’t make the mavs pay for playing Gafford, they are in trouble imo.  I think Dallas will want to stay big but this series will prevent challenges.  They did ok against Kat and Reid but they were able to attack those lineups on defense.

I think for the most part they did OK against Kat and Reid due to Lively.  Gafford really struggled in the OKC series.  If KP is healthy there may be limited lineups where Gafford is effective defensively.

[dirkfansince1998]

Does Dallas have that big of a talent deficit?  Luka is not just better than Tatum, he is significantly better.  Best player on the team is the most important comparison for the NBA playoffs.  I would also say Kyrie is better than Jrue and I like our center rotation better than theirs when you take into account age and health.  Brown and White are clearly better than PJ and DJJ but our bench is probably deeper.  

As for long term, Jrue is 2 years older than Kyrie, Horford is about to turn 38 and KP is a constant injury risk.  Meanwhile Lively is 20.  I would argue without significant changes we are likely to improve next season and Boston will have some concerns, especially in the center rotation.

Looking at a bigger sample size it is a sizeable disparity. Looking at metrics that are used to compare teams the Celtics had an all time great season. Just looking at the regular season. 5th all time in SRS. 4th in net rating.
One could make a legit case that they have 4-5 allstar level player on the roster. 4-5 players with a legit case for a spot in the all-defense teams.

But thankfully that's not a guarantee to win it all. In 16/17 the 73-9 Warriors lost in the finals. Against a less talented Cavs team (featuring Kyrie). Even the best teams can run into a bad matchup. Can have off games at the worst possible time.

Mavs on the other hand did not look like a contender for most of the season. They figured things out in march and peaked at the right time. The hottest team in the league that has basically matched the Celtics record in the last 20 games of the regular season.

My personal ranking of players in the series (off the top of my head):

Doncic
Tatum
Irving/Brown
Holiday
White
Porzingis (fully healthy)
Lively
Washington
Horford
DJJ
Kleber
Gafford
Green
Pritchard
Hardy/Exum
Hauser

[BigDirk41]

Looking at a bigger sample size it is a sizeable disparity. Looking at metrics that are used to compare teams the Celtics had an all time great season. Just looking at the regular season. 5th all time in SRS. 4th in net rating.
One could make a legit case that they have 4-5 allstar level player on the roster. 4-5 players with a legit case for a spot in the all-defense teams.

But thankfully that's not a guarantee to win it all. In 16/17 the 73-9 Warriors lost in the finals. Against a less talented Cavs team (featuring Kyrie). Even the best teams can run into a bad matchup. Can have off games at the worst possible time.

Mavs on the other hand did not look like a contender for most of the season. They figured things out in march and peaked at the right time. The hottest team in the league that has basically matched the Celtics record in the last 20 games of the regular season.

My personal ranking of players in the series (off the top of my head):

Doncic
Tatum
Irving/Brown
Holiday
White
Porzingis (fully healthy)
Lively
Washington
Horford
DJJ
Kleber
Gafford
Green
Pritchard
Hardy/Exum
Hauser

I would not put White or KP above Lively. Impact on game has to factor into how good that player is. Boston is still capable of winning without White or without KP. Dallas would have almost no chance without Lively. KP may have more unique skills like dribbling and hitting 3s, but Lively is a superior player in my opinion. Would you trade White or KP for Lively straight up? I'm going to say 99% say no. 

Gafford has to be over Maxi as well. Maxi is a very nice versatile defensive piece for us l, but he's nothing more right now and we aren't even sure how many minutes he can or will get. I think that's really selling Gafford short and we wouldn't be here without Gafford. We would still be here without Maxi.

[BigDirk41]

I think for the most part they did OK against Kat and Reid due to Lively.  Gafford really struggled in the OKC series.  If KP is healthy there may be limited lineups where Gafford is effective defensively.

I know we keep thinking this will happen at some point, but other than when Lively got hurt, Kidd has not shown any willingness to change his minutes at the 5. I expect the same in the finals. 48 minutes of Gafford and Lively. Make them deal with our bigs as well. Horford can still shoot, but he can't move like Kat. Gafford should be able to stay in front of Horford. He's pretty much a spot up shooter now. Lively can stay with Horford or KP. Maxi's minutes will depend on if he can hit 3s or not. If they won't respect his shot, he won't play.

[dirkfansince1998]

I would not put White or KP above Lively. Impact on game has to factor into how good that player is. Boston is still capable of winning without White or without KP. Dallas would have almost no chance without Lively. KP may have more unique skills like dribbling and hitting 3s, but Lively is a superior player in my opinion. Would you trade White or KP for Lively straight up? I'm going to say 99% say no. 

Gafford has to be over Maxi as well. Maxi is a very nice versatile defensive piece for us l, but he's nothing more right now and we aren't even sure how many minutes he can or will get. I think that's really selling Gafford short and we wouldn't be here without Gafford. We would still be here without Maxi.

Celtics having so much talent that they can win without player x/y/z doesn't take away from their individual abilities. Lively being as important for the Mavs actually shows that the Mavs don't have as much individual talent.
And trade value is a different topic. I would take Lively for his upside/contract/age. But trying to look at the mentioned players in a vacuum just this year I don't think he has a case over White. Maybe KP if you are really high on defensive versatility.

[mvossman]

Looking at a bigger sample size it is a sizeable disparity. Looking at metrics that are used to compare teams the Celtics had an all time great season. Just looking at the regular season. 5th all time in SRS. 4th in net rating.
One could make a legit case that they have 4-5 allstar level player on the roster. 4-5 players with a legit case for a spot in the all-defense teams.

But thankfully that's not a guarantee to win it all. In 16/17 the 73-9 Warriors lost in the finals. Against a less talented Cavs team (featuring Kyrie). Even the best teams can run into a bad matchup. Can have off games at the worst possible time.

Mavs on the other hand did not look like a contender for most of the season. They figured things out in march and peaked at the right time. The hottest team in the league that has basically matched the Celtics record in the last 20 games of the regular season.

To be fair, Mavs did not look like a contender most of the season because they had a lot of injury issues early and significantly changed the team at the TDL.  I would argue the last 35 games is more about who they actually are than a hot streak.

I also think there is a difference between regular season talent and playoff talent.  I think Luka is clearly a better playoff player than regular season player, and I think in the playoffs having the best player is more important than what raw regular season data would suggest.  

I'm not saying Boston doesn't have more talent and shouldn't be favored, I just don't think they are as far apart as some here suggest.

[windjc]

Maxi will play more this series to help us defend the perimeter. I wish people would stop talking about Boston being an all time great team based on statistics. It’s so dumb.

They won 64 games in a weak conference. If they had won 70+ it would be a different story. They were 3-5 against the top 4 of the West. We beat 3 of those teams recently combined 12-5.

They are a good team. They aren’t anywhere close to the top 25 teams in history.

[KillerLeft]

I've been thinking a ton about this series. To me, it's the toughest to predict yet. There's a healthy fear of every playoff opponent in the heart of every (smart) fan, I think, but I never really thought Minnesota was actually a huge threat. Ditto for OKC. Minnesota is just majorly flawed to me, and as impressive as Edwards was in the first two rounds, I just couldn't imagine a 22 year old getting his team to the finals. In the OKC series, SGA was everything they've been saying his is all season (he's ready, obviously), but it was clear that the rest of that squad has an abundance of learning to do before they're legit contenders, imho. To be frank, I think getting past the Clippers, Kawhi or no, might be the biggest thing the Mavs have achieved in this post season, so far. especially given that Luka was nowhere near himself in that series. Looking back, that might have been a blessing in disguise, because it's clear to me that he's trusting his teammates more as this postseason goes on, and why wouldn't he? They have answered the bell each and every time they were called upon. 

As I see it, THIS Boston series will be similar to the OKC series in terms of great, spread out spacing, only with a few significant differences: 

1) The most glaring difference is that all of Boston's top 7 are offensive threats. There are no Josh Giddeys. That's huge, because in EVERY series so far, the Mavs' defense has won by choosing the right opposing player to ignore. On paper, at least, there isn't really a guy who doesn't have to be guarded in the Boston rotation. That means, I think, a little more emphasis on one-on-one perimeter defense, and that very likely won't be limited to DJJ and/or PJ. 

2) There's no SGA. Tatum isn't nearly as dangerous as an offensive initiator as SGA, and that can work in the Mavs' favor, because I get the sense at times that even the Celtics aren't sure where their offense is going to come from. In other words, the deferential nature of all those offensive "equals" (not in quality, but in initiation competence) can sometimes lead to indecision, even against inferior defenses like IND's. HOWEVER, it might also work against the Mavs, because again, whomever Luka and/or Kyrie are guarding WILL be able to set ball screens at worst, and it's likely that they will frequently be guys who are comfortable facing up with a live dribble, creating shots, making the right pass, etc. This is pretty scary, imo. 

3) Gafford and Lively will probably KILL the Celtics inside. If they can't, this is going to be a short series, so let's not even consider that possibility (I'm confident they can). So, which agenda will be imposed first, and more effectively? Will the offensive rebounding and lob threats of the Dallas bigs cause more problems for Boston, or will the Boston spacing cause more problems for the Dallas bigs? That's the series, imo. 

I expect that Dallas will probably ATTEMPT to ignore a Boston player, as they have done consistently since the all star break, basically. We'll know who they choose for this right away, because it will be the guy Gafford is guarding to start Game 1. My guess is that Porzingis will be the first target, because it's easier to handle than cross matching, and because KP will probably (hopefully) be rusty. Expect a ton of pick and pop from KP to start the series. 

If Porzingis is hitting those shots, or even WHEN he starts hitting them (the dream is that Dallas can get away this for a while, even if it's just for a game or two), I expect the first adjustment to be applying the same strategy to Jrue Holiday. Kidd has actually tried this tactic recently against Boston. They'll put Gafford on Holiday, Washington on Porzingis and hope they can keep Gafford in the paint by conceding some decent to good looks to Holiday. If things reach this point, I'm not as hopeful as I am about leaving Porzingis open, so I think this will be a sign that it's just not Gafford's series. Hopefully, it doesn't come to this, or, maybe a more realistic hope is that it takes a game or two before it reaches this point. 

Lively, unlike Gafford, can do OK in space, so the move then will be start him, maybe. Great, right? Only...even if using him on switches is successful (it would be a mixed bag, I think) this is STILL in Boston's favor, because he wouldn't be in the paint. That means less room for error for perimeter defenders (Luka and Kyrie included) and way less dominance on the DEFENSIVE glass. It is encouraging, however, that Lively CAN play through this entire series. I'm pretty confident of that, and that at least means the hard rim rolling is something that Dallas can count on, and I don't know that I believe Porzingis or Horford will have any answer for that. They both play a lot of drop, just like Minnesota. 

The chess move Kidd has in his bag is this: benching Gafford completely and rotate between Lively/Kleber. That would allow for much, much more switching, and probably above average switching by league standards. I'm 100% positive he/they are hoping Gafford can find a way to hang on defense, because he's going to KILL IT on offense, just like Lively. 

And then, there's "Dallas has Luka and Kyrie. Boston doesn't." Call me crazy, but I'm not a huge fan of Tatum or Brown. I think when it comes to offensive creation, the Mavs actually have the TWO best players in the series. Boston might be the league's most focused and devout believers in "attack mismatches and the other team's weak link," so expect Luka and Kyrie to have to defend MUCH, MUCH more than they did in the last series, ESPECIALLY if my first two points don't work out in the Mavs' favor, but...if that doesn't work well enough on a PPP level for Boston, I honestly don't think they know where the ball needs to go, offensively. 

This will be a fascinating series. 

I am a Mavs fan, and I just feel like Luka is a killer and Kyrie is a killer with baggage against Boston. I'm picking the Mavs in 6.

[Jym]

I've been thinking a ton about this series. To me, it's the toughest to predict yet. There's a healthy fear of every playoff opponent in the heart of every (smart) fan, I think, but I never really thought Minnesota was actually a huge threat. Ditto for OKC. Minnesota is just majorly flawed to me, and as impressive as Edwards was in the first two rounds, I just couldn't imagine a 22 year old getting his team to the finals. In the OKC series, SGA was everything they've been saying his is all season (he's ready, obviously), but it was clear that the rest of that squad has an abundance of learning to do before they're legit contenders, imho. To be frank, I think getting past the Clippers, Kawhi or no, might be the biggest thing the Mavs have achieved in this post season, so far. especially given that Luka was nowhere near himself in that series. Looking back, that might have been a blessing in disguise, because it's clear to me that he's trusting his teammates more as this postseason goes on, and why wouldn't he? They have answered the bell each and every time they were called upon. 

As I see it, THIS Boston series will be similar to the OKC series in terms of great, spread out spacing, only with a few significant differences: 

1) The most glaring difference is that all of Boston's top 7 are offensive threats. There are no Josh Giddeys. That's huge, because in EVERY series so far, the Mavs' defense has won by choosing the right opposing player to ignore. On paper, at least, there isn't really a guy who doesn't have to be guarded in the Boston rotation. That means, I think, a little more emphasis on one-on-one perimeter defense, and that very likely won't be limited to DJJ and/or PJ. 

2) There's no SGA. Tatum isn't nearly as dangerous as an offensive initiator as SGA, and that can work in the Mavs' favor, because I get the sense at times that even the Celtics aren't sure where their offense is going to come from. In other words, the deferential nature of all those offensive "equals" (not in quality, but in initiation competence) can sometimes lead to indecision, even against inferior defenses like IND's. HOWEVER, it might also work against the Mavs, because again, whomever Luka and/or Kyrie are guarding WILL be able to set ball screens at worst, and it's likely that they will frequently be guys who are comfortable facing up with a live dribble, creating shots, making the right pass, etc. This is pretty scary, imo. 

3) Gafford and Lively will probably KILL the Celtics inside. If they can't, this is going to be a short series, so let's not even consider that possibility (I'm confident they can). So, which agenda will be imposed first, and more effectively? Will the offensive rebounding and lob threats of the Dallas bigs cause more problems for Boston, or will the Boston spacing cause more problems for the Dallas bigs? That's the series, imo. 

I expect that Dallas will probably ATTEMPT to ignore a Boston player, as they have done consistently since the all star break, basically. We'll know who they choose for this right away, because it will be the guy Gafford is guarding to start Game 1. My guess is that Porzingis will be the first target, because it's easier to handle than cross matching, and because KP will probably (hopefully) be rusty. Expect a ton of pick and pop from KP to start the series. 

If Porzingis is hitting those shots, or even WHEN he starts hitting them (the dream is that Dallas can get away this for a while, even if it's just for a game or two), I expect the first adjustment to be applying the same strategy to Jrue Holiday. Kidd has actually tried this tactic recently against Boston. They'll put Gafford on Holiday, Washington on Porzingis and hope they can keep Gafford in the paint by conceding some decent to good looks to Holiday. If things reach this point, I'm not as hopeful as I am about leaving Porzingis open, so I think this will be a sign that it's just not Gafford's series. Hopefully, it doesn't come to this, or, maybe a more realistic hope is that it takes a game or two before it reaches this point. 

Lively, unlike Gafford, can do OK in space, so the move then will be start him, maybe. Great, right? Only...even if using him on switches is successful (it would be a mixed bag, I think) this is STILL in Boston's favor, because he wouldn't be in the paint. That means less room for error for perimeter defenders (Luka and Kyrie included) and way less dominance on the DEFENSIVE glass. It is encouraging, however, that Lively CAN play through this entire series. I'm pretty confident of that, and that at least means the hard rim rolling is something that Dallas can count on, and I don't know that I believe Porzingis or Horford will have any answer for that. They both play a lot of drop, just like Minnesota. 

The chess move Kidd has in his bag is this: benching Gafford completely and rotate between Lively/Kleber. That would allow for much, much more switching, and probably above average switching by league standards. I'm 100% positive he/they are hoping Gafford can find a way to hang on defense, because he's going to KILL IT on offense, just like Lively. 

And then, there's "Dallas has Luka and Kyrie. Boston doesn't." Call me crazy, but I'm not a huge fan of Tatum or Brown. I think when it comes to offensive creation, the Mavs actually have the TWO best players in the series. Boston might be the league's most focused and devout believers in "attack mismatches and the other team's weak link," so expect Luka and Kyrie to have to defend MUCH, MUCH more than they did in the last series, ESPECIALLY if my first two points don't work out in the Mavs' favor, but...if that doesn't work well enough on a PPP level for Boston, I honestly don't think they know where the ball needs to go, offensively. 

This will be a fascinating series. 

I am a Mavs fan, and I just feel like Luka is a killer and Kyrie is a killer with baggage against Boston. I'm picking the Mavs in 6.

Yeah I was surprised to see multiple people on realgm say that Tatum was big and strong enough to effectively guard our centers one-on-one. Didn't seem scared of that at all. 
So we'll see. I feel like they should way be more afraid of that matchup and better be hoping their offense plays them off the floor

[Smitty]

I've been thinking a ton about this series. To me, it's the toughest to predict yet. There's a healthy fear of every playoff opponent in the heart of every (smart) fan, I think, but I never really thought Minnesota was actually a huge threat. Ditto for OKC. Minnesota is just majorly flawed to me, and as impressive as Edwards was in the first two rounds, I just couldn't imagine a 22 year old getting his team to the finals. In the OKC series, SGA was everything they've been saying his is all season (he's ready, obviously), but it was clear that the rest of that squad has an abundance of learning to do before they're legit contenders, imho. To be frank, I think getting past the Clippers, Kawhi or no, might be the biggest thing the Mavs have achieved in this post season, so far. especially given that Luka was nowhere near himself in that series. Looking back, that might have been a blessing in disguise, because it's clear to me that he's trusting his teammates more as this postseason goes on, and why wouldn't he? They have answered the bell each and every time they were called upon. 

As I see it, THIS Boston series will be similar to the OKC series in terms of great, spread out spacing, only with a few significant differences: 

1) The most glaring difference is that all of Boston's top 7 are offensive threats. There are no Josh Giddeys. That's huge, because in EVERY series so far, the Mavs' defense has won by choosing the right opposing player to ignore. On paper, at least, there isn't really a guy who doesn't have to be guarded in the Boston rotation. That means, I think, a little more emphasis on one-on-one perimeter defense, and that very likely won't be limited to DJJ and/or PJ. 

2) There's no SGA. Tatum isn't nearly as dangerous as an offensive initiator as SGA, and that can work in the Mavs' favor, because I get the sense at times that even the Celtics aren't sure where their offense is going to come from. In other words, the deferential nature of all those offensive "equals" (not in quality, but in initiation competence) can sometimes lead to indecision, even against inferior defenses like IND's. HOWEVER, it might also work against the Mavs, because again, whomever Luka and/or Kyrie are guarding WILL be able to set ball screens at worst, and it's likely that they will frequently be guys who are comfortable facing up with a live dribble, creating shots, making the right pass, etc. This is pretty scary, imo. 

3) Gafford and Lively will probably KILL the Celtics inside. If they can't, this is going to be a short series, so let's not even consider that possibility (I'm confident they can). So, which agenda will be imposed first, and more effectively? Will the offensive rebounding and lob threats of the Dallas bigs cause more problems for Boston, or will the Boston spacing cause more problems for the Dallas bigs? That's the series, imo. 

I expect that Dallas will probably ATTEMPT to ignore a Boston player, as they have done consistently since the all star break, basically. We'll know who they choose for this right away, because it will be the guy Gafford is guarding to start Game 1. My guess is that Porzingis will be the first target, because it's easier to handle than cross matching, and because KP will probably (hopefully) be rusty. Expect a ton of pick and pop from KP to start the series. 

If Porzingis is hitting those shots, or even WHEN he starts hitting them (the dream is that Dallas can get away this for a while, even if it's just for a game or two), I expect the first adjustment to be applying the same strategy to Jrue Holiday. Kidd has actually tried this tactic recently against Boston. They'll put Gafford on Holiday, Washington on Porzingis and hope they can keep Gafford in the paint by conceding some decent to good looks to Holiday. If things reach this point, I'm not as hopeful as I am about leaving Porzingis open, so I think this will be a sign that it's just not Gafford's series. Hopefully, it doesn't come to this, or, maybe a more realistic hope is that it takes a game or two before it reaches this point. 

Lively, unlike Gafford, can do OK in space, so the move then will be start him, maybe. Great, right? Only...even if using him on switches is successful (it would be a mixed bag, I think) this is STILL in Boston's favor, because he wouldn't be in the paint. That means less room for error for perimeter defenders (Luka and Kyrie included) and way less dominance on the DEFENSIVE glass. It is encouraging, however, that Lively CAN play through this entire series. I'm pretty confident of that, and that at least means the hard rim rolling is something that Dallas can count on, and I don't know that I believe Porzingis or Horford will have any answer for that. They both play a lot of drop, just like Minnesota. 

The chess move Kidd has in his bag is this: benching Gafford completely and rotate between Lively/Kleber. That would allow for much, much more switching, and probably above average switching by league standards. I'm 100% positive he/they are hoping Gafford can find a way to hang on defense, because he's going to KILL IT on offense, just like Lively. 

And then, there's "Dallas has Luka and Kyrie. Boston doesn't." Call me crazy, but I'm not a huge fan of Tatum or Brown. I think when it comes to offensive creation, the Mavs actually have the TWO best players in the series. Boston might be the league's most focused and devout believers in "attack mismatches and the other team's weak link," so expect Luka and Kyrie to have to defend MUCH, MUCH more than they did in the last series, ESPECIALLY if my first two points don't work out in the Mavs' favor, but...if that doesn't work well enough on a PPP level for Boston, I honestly don't think they know where the ball needs to go, offensively. 

This will be a fascinating series. 

I am a Mavs fan, and I just feel like Luka is a killer and Kyrie is a killer with baggage against Boston. I'm picking the Mavs in 6.

I agree with most of this. Great write up, Killer. I also think Mavs win in 6. Maxi will be a big reason why…

[KillerLeft]

Yeah I was surprised to see multiple people on realgm say that Tatum was big and strong enough to effectively guard our centers one-on-one. Didn't seem scared of that at all. 
So we'll see. I feel like they should way be more afraid of that matchup and better be hoping their offense plays them off the floor

That's just ignorance on their part as to HOW Gafford and Lively are doing what they're doing. It doesn't matter if Tatum can do what they say if he (or whomever is guarding the roller) has to step up and contest Luka. Is Tatum longer than Gobert, making the lob over the top more difficult? Obviously not, so that part of Dallas' offense will likely work BETTER in this series, at least when Boston is in drop. The low man (sliding from the weak side corner) can and probably WILL do a better job of helping to reduce the lob threat than the past two teams' defenders have done, but all that accomplishes is forcing Dallas to live or die by WIDE OPEN corner threes. This doesn't worry me a bit. 

The outcome of this series will be determined when Boston has the ball. We know what the Dallas offense is about to do. I do NOT feel like we know what the Dallas defense is about to do.

[Winter]

Good post from Killer above.

I'm guessing Dallas will wait to see if KP is hitting his perimeter shots. His perimeter percentage may determine rotations. I agree that there will be minutes where only Lively and Kleber will be the only real options, but I suspect Gafford to get the start and play good minutes.

[KillerLeft]

Good post from Killer above.

I'm guessing Dallas will wait to see if KP is hitting his perimeter shots. His perimeter percentage may determine rotations. I agree that there will be minutes where only Lively and Kleber will be the only real options, but I suspect Gafford to get the start and play good minutes.

There's a world in which Porzingis falls on his face, offensively, and the Mavs' first, go-to defensive strategy crushes Boston's offense. We know that world exists, because we just watched Holmgren not reach a PPP on open shots sufficient to pull the Mavs' bigs out of the paint. I so hope that's the world we're about to live in, and being the "Porzingis sucks" truther that I am, I kind of find it likely, even, at least to start the series. 

But, I might have to eat those words after game 1, and if I still had the respect for KP that some of you have maintained for years, I would be pretty scared about the first game or two of this series.

I'm even less confident Gafford can hang while Horford is out there. I know he's old, but spreading teams out and hitting big shots is something he has been doing for over a decade, and why he's going to have a job for literally as long as he wants one.

The flip side is that neither of those guys are tough enough to be ready for what's coming for them with Gafford and Lively rolling to the rim. I just can't predict which will advantage will be more impactful. It might come down to which is more impactful in important moments, in which case...*gulp*...I actually think Kidd might be the better coach (can't believe I just typed that) and that might be advantage: Dallas.

[dirkfansince1998]

I've been thinking a ton about this series. To me, it's the toughest to predict yet. There's a healthy fear of every playoff opponent in the heart of every (smart) fan, I think, but I never really thought Minnesota was actually a huge threat. Ditto for OKC. Minnesota is just majorly flawed to me, and as impressive as Edwards was in the first two rounds, I just couldn't imagine a 22 year old getting his team to the finals. In the OKC series, SGA was everything they've been saying his is all season (he's ready, obviously), but it was clear that the rest of that squad has an abundance of learning to do before they're legit contenders, imho. To be frank, I think getting past the Clippers, Kawhi or no, might be the biggest thing the Mavs have achieved in this post season, so far. especially given that Luka was nowhere near himself in that series. Looking back, that might have been a blessing in disguise, because it's clear to me that he's trusting his teammates more as this postseason goes on, and why wouldn't he? They have answered the bell each and every time they were called upon. 

As I see it, THIS Boston series will be similar to the OKC series in terms of great, spread out spacing, only with a few significant differences: 

1) The most glaring difference is that all of Boston's top 7 are offensive threats. There are no Josh Giddeys. That's huge, because in EVERY series so far, the Mavs' defense has won by choosing the right opposing player to ignore. On paper, at least, there isn't really a guy who doesn't have to be guarded in the Boston rotation. That means, I think, a little more emphasis on one-on-one perimeter defense, and that very likely won't be limited to DJJ and/or PJ. 

2) There's no SGA. Tatum isn't nearly as dangerous as an offensive initiator as SGA, and that can work in the Mavs' favor, because I get the sense at times that even the Celtics aren't sure where their offense is going to come from. In other words, the deferential nature of all those offensive "equals" (not in quality, but in initiation competence) can sometimes lead to indecision, even against inferior defenses like IND's. HOWEVER, it might also work against the Mavs, because again, whomever Luka and/or Kyrie are guarding WILL be able to set ball screens at worst, and it's likely that they will frequently be guys who are comfortable facing up with a live dribble, creating shots, making the right pass, etc. This is pretty scary, imo. 

3) Gafford and Lively will probably KILL the Celtics inside. If they can't, this is going to be a short series, so let's not even consider that possibility (I'm confident they can). So, which agenda will be imposed first, and more effectively? Will the offensive rebounding and lob threats of the Dallas bigs cause more problems for Boston, or will the Boston spacing cause more problems for the Dallas bigs? That's the series, imo. 

I expect that Dallas will probably ATTEMPT to ignore a Boston player, as they have done consistently since the all star break, basically. We'll know who they choose for this right away, because it will be the guy Gafford is guarding to start Game 1. My guess is that Porzingis will be the first target, because it's easier to handle than cross matching, and because KP will probably (hopefully) be rusty. Expect a ton of pick and pop from KP to start the series. 

If Porzingis is hitting those shots, or even WHEN he starts hitting them (the dream is that Dallas can get away this for a while, even if it's just for a game or two), I expect the first adjustment to be applying the same strategy to Jrue Holiday. Kidd has actually tried this tactic recently against Boston. They'll put Gafford on Holiday, Washington on Porzingis and hope they can keep Gafford in the paint by conceding some decent to good looks to Holiday. If things reach this point, I'm not as hopeful as I am about leaving Porzingis open, so I think this will be a sign that it's just not Gafford's series. Hopefully, it doesn't come to this, or, maybe a more realistic hope is that it takes a game or two before it reaches this point. 

Lively, unlike Gafford, can do OK in space, so the move then will be start him, maybe. Great, right? Only...even if using him on switches is successful (it would be a mixed bag, I think) this is STILL in Boston's favor, because he wouldn't be in the paint. That means less room for error for perimeter defenders (Luka and Kyrie included) and way less dominance on the DEFENSIVE glass. It is encouraging, however, that Lively CAN play through this entire series. I'm pretty confident of that, and that at least means the hard rim rolling is something that Dallas can count on, and I don't know that I believe Porzingis or Horford will have any answer for that. They both play a lot of drop, just like Minnesota. 

The chess move Kidd has in his bag is this: benching Gafford completely and rotate between Lively/Kleber. That would allow for much, much more switching, and probably above average switching by league standards. I'm 100% positive he/they are hoping Gafford can find a way to hang on defense, because he's going to KILL IT on offense, just like Lively. 

And then, there's "Dallas has Luka and Kyrie. Boston doesn't." Call me crazy, but I'm not a huge fan of Tatum or Brown. I think when it comes to offensive creation, the Mavs actually have the TWO best players in the series. Boston might be the league's most focused and devout believers in "attack mismatches and the other team's weak link," so expect Luka and Kyrie to have to defend MUCH, MUCH more than they did in the last series, ESPECIALLY if my first two points don't work out in the Mavs' favor, but...if that doesn't work well enough on a PPP level for Boston, I honestly don't think they know where the ball needs to go, offensively. 

This will be a fascinating series. 

I am a Mavs fan, and I just feel like Luka is a killer and Kyrie is a killer with baggage against Boston. I'm picking the Mavs in 6.

I think you nailed some of the key matchups. And that is what this comes down to. Boston has more talent. Some would argue that the Wolves had more individual talent than the Mavs (regular season accolades would suggest it). But it doesn't matter when the talent is limited to a certain style of basketball. The best defense in the league that dominated last years champion. With size and twin tower lineups that defended the post and protect the rim. But against a team like Dallas that forced them to defend the perimeter and exploited their bigs their biggest strengths turned into liabilities.

Looking at the Mavs - Celtics matchup. You already mentioned the bigs. Can KP and Horford play the Mavs rim protection off the floor and force the Mavs to abandon their defensive scheme. Or can Lively and Gafford punish the Celtics in the paint and force them to play bigger lineups with less perimeter scorers.

Another interesting aspect. And this one isn't favoring the Mavs. The Celtics might be the only team in the league that can get away with 1v1 defense vs Luka for an entire game/series. If Luka cannot force the double team the Mavs are in trouble. Mavs need the best version of Luka. Especially when it comes to his shooting.
There is no easy matchup to exploit if the Celtics can keep their bigs out of the pick and roll. And even though the Mavs aren't the same team that we saw in the regular season matchups vs Boston it should be mentioned that the Celtics did an incredible job with preswitches. Brown on the ball and Holiday switching onto the big to defend the pick and roll.

Wolves were build to defeat the Nuggets. Mavs had all the mismatch advantages against the Wolves. I think Boston starts the series with all the tools to make things really hard for the Mavs.
Despite all that I still feel pretty good about the series. Feels like the current Mavs have another gear that allows them to match the level of play of any given opponent. Different players stepping up each game/series to even the odds or change the dynamics of the series.

[DallasMaverick]

I've been thinking a ton about this series. To me, it's the toughest to predict yet. There's a healthy fear of every playoff opponent in the heart of every (smart) fan, I think, but I never really thought Minnesota was actually a huge threat. Ditto for OKC. Minnesota is just majorly flawed to me, and as impressive as Edwards was in the first two rounds, I just couldn't imagine a 22 year old getting his team to the finals. In the OKC series, SGA was everything they've been saying his is all season (he's ready, obviously), but it was clear that the rest of that squad has an abundance of learning to do before they're legit contenders, imho. To be frank, I think getting past the Clippers, Kawhi or no, might be the biggest thing the Mavs have achieved in this post season, so far. especially given that Luka was nowhere near himself in that series. Looking back, that might have been a blessing in disguise, because it's clear to me that he's trusting his teammates more as this postseason goes on, and why wouldn't he? They have answered the bell each and every time they were called upon. 

As I see it, THIS Boston series will be similar to the OKC series in terms of great, spread out spacing, only with a few significant differences: 

1) The most glaring difference is that all of Boston's top 7 are offensive threats. There are no Josh Giddeys. That's huge, because in EVERY series so far, the Mavs' defense has won by choosing the right opposing player to ignore. On paper, at least, there isn't really a guy who doesn't have to be guarded in the Boston rotation. That means, I think, a little more emphasis on one-on-one perimeter defense, and that very likely won't be limited to DJJ and/or PJ. 

2) There's no SGA. Tatum isn't nearly as dangerous as an offensive initiator as SGA, and that can work in the Mavs' favor, because I get the sense at times that even the Celtics aren't sure where their offense is going to come from. In other words, the deferential nature of all those offensive "equals" (not in quality, but in initiation competence) can sometimes lead to indecision, even against inferior defenses like IND's. HOWEVER, it might also work against the Mavs, because again, whomever Luka and/or Kyrie are guarding WILL be able to set ball screens at worst, and it's likely that they will frequently be guys who are comfortable facing up with a live dribble, creating shots, making the right pass, etc. This is pretty scary, imo. 

3) Gafford and Lively will probably KILL the Celtics inside. If they can't, this is going to be a short series, so let's not even consider that possibility (I'm confident they can). So, which agenda will be imposed first, and more effectively? Will the offensive rebounding and lob threats of the Dallas bigs cause more problems for Boston, or will the Boston spacing cause more problems for the Dallas bigs? That's the series, imo. 

I expect that Dallas will probably ATTEMPT to ignore a Boston player, as they have done consistently since the all star break, basically. We'll know who they choose for this right away, because it will be the guy Gafford is guarding to start Game 1. My guess is that Porzingis will be the first target, because it's easier to handle than cross matching, and because KP will probably (hopefully) be rusty. Expect a ton of pick and pop from KP to start the series. 

If Porzingis is hitting those shots, or even WHEN he starts hitting them (the dream is that Dallas can get away this for a while, even if it's just for a game or two), I expect the first adjustment to be applying the same strategy to Jrue Holiday. Kidd has actually tried this tactic recently against Boston. They'll put Gafford on Holiday, Washington on Porzingis and hope they can keep Gafford in the paint by conceding some decent to good looks to Holiday. If things reach this point, I'm not as hopeful as I am about leaving Porzingis open, so I think this will be a sign that it's just not Gafford's series. Hopefully, it doesn't come to this, or, maybe a more realistic hope is that it takes a game or two before it reaches this point. 

Lively, unlike Gafford, can do OK in space, so the move then will be start him, maybe. Great, right? Only...even if using him on switches is successful (it would be a mixed bag, I think) this is STILL in Boston's favor, because he wouldn't be in the paint. That means less room for error for perimeter defenders (Luka and Kyrie included) and way less dominance on the DEFENSIVE glass. It is encouraging, however, that Lively CAN play through this entire series. I'm pretty confident of that, and that at least means the hard rim rolling is something that Dallas can count on, and I don't know that I believe Porzingis or Horford will have any answer for that. They both play a lot of drop, just like Minnesota. 

The chess move Kidd has in his bag is this: benching Gafford completely and rotate between Lively/Kleber. That would allow for much, much more switching, and probably above average switching by league standards. I'm 100% positive he/they are hoping Gafford can find a way to hang on defense, because he's going to KILL IT on offense, just like Lively. 

And then, there's "Dallas has Luka and Kyrie. Boston doesn't." Call me crazy, but I'm not a huge fan of Tatum or Brown. I think when it comes to offensive creation, the Mavs actually have the TWO best players in the series. Boston might be the league's most focused and devout believers in "attack mismatches and the other team's weak link," so expect Luka and Kyrie to have to defend MUCH, MUCH more than they did in the last series, ESPECIALLY if my first two points don't work out in the Mavs' favor, but...if that doesn't work well enough on a PPP level for Boston, I honestly don't think they know where the ball needs to go, offensively. 

This will be a fascinating series. 

I am a Mavs fan, and I just feel like Luka is a killer and Kyrie is a killer with baggage against Boston. I'm picking the Mavs in 6.

I’m wondering if Dallas will feel compelled to draw Porzingis away from defending the rim. As long as Gafford or Lively is in, Porzingis can lurk and help on D.

Maxi changes that.

Maybe the Zinger isn’t enough of a defensive presence to warrant this strategy. I have visions of Dame repeatedly going around him for layups.

Maybe the Mavs can accomplish the same thing just by the high PnR with Gafford and Lively.

[Jym]

There's a world in which Porzingis falls on his face, offensively and the Mavs' first, go-to defensive strategy crushes Boston's offense. We know that world exists, because we just watched Holmgren not reach a PPP on open shots sufficient to pull the Mavs' bigs out of the paint. I so hope that's the world we're about to live in, and being the "Porzingis sucks" truther that I am, I kind of find it likely, even, at least to start the series. 

But, I might have to eat those words after game 1, and if I still had the respect for KP that some of you have maintained for years, I would be pretty scared about the first game or two of this series.

I'm even less confident Gafford can hang while Horford is out there. I know he's old, but spreading teams out and hitting big shots is something he has been doing for over a decade, and why he's going to have a job for literally as long as he wants one.

The flip side is that neither of those guys are tough enough to be ready for what's coming for them with Gafford and Lively rolling to the rim. I just can't predict which will advantage will be more impactful. It might come down to which is more impactful in important moments, in which case...*gulp*...I actually think Kidd might be the better coach (can't believe I just typed that) and that might be advantage: Dallas.

I was something of a KP supporter. At least more than most around here
He'd be way scarier if he was in a flow and playing healthy for once. I just don't buy him being effective after not being able to run or jump for a month 
Let him beat us and live with the results if that actually happens. Play the defense that got us here. No easy shots for Tatum or Brown

[dirkfansince1998]

There's a world in which Porzingis falls on his face, offensively and the Mavs' first, go-to defensive strategy crushes Boston's offense. We know that world exists, because we just watched Holmgren not reach a PPP on open shots sufficient to pull the Mavs' bigs out of the paint. I so hope that's the world we're about to live in, and being the "Porzingis sucks" truther that I am, I kind of find it likely, even, at least to start the series. 

But, I might have to eat those words after game 1, and if I still had the respect for KP that some of you have maintained for years, I would be pretty scared about the first game or two of this series.

I'm even less confident Gafford can hang while Horford is out there. I know he's old, but spreading teams out and hitting big shots is something he has been doing for over a decade, and why he's going to have a job for literally as long as he wants one.

The flip side is that neither of those guys are tough enough to be ready for what's coming for them with Gafford and Lively rolling to the rim. I just can't predict which will advantage will be more impactful. It might come down to which is more impactful in important moments, in which case...*gulp*...I actually think Kidd might be the better coach (can't believe I just typed that) and that might be advantage: Dallas.

If the Celtics switch as much as I expect them to do (at least early in the series, trying not to double/blitz Luka) there probably won't be as much rim running.
As far as coaching goes I think this one could really favor the Mavs because as dominant as Boston was all season long (including the playoffs) they never faced adversity and never had a reason to make adjustments or come up with a backup plan.
Can they adjust on the fly if Luka is cooking Brown or Holiday 1v1. Can they adjust the offense if KP or Horford aren't hitting their 3s. Mavs had to come up with lots of different things over the last three series. Luka has seen and dissected any defensive scheme known to mankind. Not sure if Tatum and Holiday can do the same.

[KillerLeft]

Another interesting aspect. And this one isn't favoring the Mavs. The Celtics might be the only team in the league that can get away with 1v1 defense vs Luka for an entire game/series. If Luka cannot force the double team the Mavs are in trouble. Mavs need the best version of Luka. Especially when it comes to his shooting.
There is no easy matchup to exploit if the Celtics can keep their bigs out of the pick and roll. And even though the Mavs aren't the same team that we saw in the regular season matchups vs Boston it should be mentioned that the Celtics did an incredible job with preswitches. Brown on the ball and Holiday switching onto the big to defend the pick and roll. 

This is a good point, and it will be a huge talking point this week on the analyst circuit. 

Let me just say that with how Luka is playing right now, I'm not worried about Tatum or Brown guarding him. I would've said something totally different during the LAC/OKC series, but thankfully, he's looking more and more like himself with each passing day and now has a week of rest. They might make it a little tougher at times than McDaniels, but that will come at the heavy cost of foul trouble, reduced energy on offense, and ultimately, I don't expect that either can shut Luka down enough to make it a winning proposition in the wash of both ends. 

But...

I have a little bit of concern that Holiday and White might both be uniquely qualified to slow Kyrie down. And, if Luka does beat Tatum and/or Brown, as I expect he will, they'll try Holiday on him (probably will, anyway, at least for stretches). That might put Tatum and/or Brown on Kyrie for important stretches. THAT could be a problem.

So ultimately, while I'm not exactly shaking in my boots over the "who guards Luka" aspect of it, I totally agree that Boston having FOUR plus defenders gives them lots of options that could potentially make life extremely difficult for the Mavs, in general. In the worst case scenario of this series, I envision a lot of DJJ and/or Josh Green attacking the paint off the dribble, and we all know how most of those possessions end.

[KillerLeft]

I’m wondering if Dallas will feel compelled to draw Porzingis away from defending the rim. As long as Gafford or Lively is in, Porzingis can lurk and help on D.

Maxi changes that.

Maybe the Zinger isn’t enough of a defensive presence to warrant this strategy. I have visions of Dame repeatedly going around him for layups.

Maybe the Mavs can accomplish the same thing just by the high PnR with Gafford and Lively.

If Gobert in drop wasn't enough to slow the Dallas pick and roll game down, then Porzingis won't be, either. 

I think spreading the floor with Kleber will be a part of the series, but only as a means of making the choice to use Kleber as the DEFENSIVE center viable on the other end, not as a way to combat some sort of defensive dominance by Porzingis inside. I think Luka is the weapon against that already, and I think Dallas will start with the offensive strategy that has shown to be their foundation.

[KillerLeft]

If the Celtics switch as much as I expect them to do (at least early in the series, trying not to double/blitz Luka) there probably won't be as much rim running.
As far as coaching goes I think this one could really favor the Mavs because as dominant as Boston was all season long (including the playoffs) they never faced adversity and never had a reason to make adjustments or come up with a backup plan.
Can they adjust on the fly if Luka is cooking Brown or Holiday 1v1. Can they adjust the offense if KP or Horford aren't hitting their 3s. Mavs had to come up with lots of different things over the last three series. Luka has seen and dissected any defensive scheme known to mankind. Not sure if Tatum and Holiday can do the same.

If Boston is switching everything, KP is about to look like a chump, as is Horford. Whether you like those guys or not, Luka will destroy them. Heck, so will Kyrie. Hardy, even, might have some success.

Now, maybe Boston can find a way, like Dallas has come close to doing, of finding ways to switch everything without involving their bigs. Idk...I just feel like Luka and Kyrie are too smart not to exploit something like that over a 7-game series.