Trade & FA 2023-24: PHX Wants Lebron+Bronny| Jazz to Shop Collins

[KillerLeft]

And I'm confident he'd close over Maxi here

I do not concur. But, I've been wrong before. 

Go watch what the Mavs did to him in game 7 year before last.

[ItsGoTime]

Still not interested in overpaid dinosaurs. Just brought him up to point out the difference in perception when it comes to Capela and other bigs. If Nurkic is a negative or neutral asset there is no way that the Mavs should offer more than a couple of 2nds for Capela.
But if the Mavs are still all in on Kidd´s 2020 Lakers pipe dream I would prefer someone like Nurkic over Capela. Most likely way cheaper. Not a pick and roll finisher but a good screener and passer. Capable of making plays out of the short roll. Also showed improved 3-point range. And as a big fan of +/- based metrics. Despite his obvious short comings when he has to defend in space he ranks among the best defensive bigs over the last 3-5 seasons.
If the options are Green/Hardy and/or the 2027st for Capela (not sure if that is the case) or a couple of 2nds for Nurkic it´s not even a question for me.

I can get behind this reasoning. Like Tyron Lue is trying to beat into Kawhi and PG’s head, the regular season does matter. Getting HCA in the first round does matter. Like we saw, a team can get on a roll with a good matchup in that first round. This is where I think Nurk and Cap would really help this team. All while giving the young guys the time they need to develop. Like I said to Omahen, if we can find a way to get the job done with less(er) assets, I’m all for it. Heck, Nurk being injury prone might give Lively more chances to apply what he’s learning in practice in game. I still want him healthy for the playoffs cause if he does work out to get us to a HCA seed, he would still be useful in the playoffs (especially in the first round where he could absolutely be useful against a Timberwolves type team).

[KillerLeft]

The game changes last 6 mins. The refs swallow the whistle. The pressure mounts. The long game doesn’t matter, just the present. Frequent stoppages let you catch your breath. It’s really not the same thing.

Maxi is a pretty good center in those spots. Gonna be hard to find someone to make him sit. Don’t think that should be the goal.

Agree, and to add to this, you just cannot have a guy out there who doesn't have to be guarded during that stretch. The other team KNOWS what you're about to run and has predetermined whether they'll double, and from where, meaning who they'll leave open. They determine matchups based on "pre-switching." 

Now, Ayton is juuuuuuuuust dangerous enough so as not to count as "don't have to guard him" but that sort of means he's going to end up in the paint off of the screen like almost every time, because you OBVIOUSLY can't have him out there on the perimeter. I hope we can all agree on that, at least. 

I, personally, do not WANT Ayton to be the most likely finisher of the majority of plays down the stretch. Others might feel differently, but give me a spread floor with screen setters who can relocate to a variety of different places and be a threat from all of them. More unpredictable, and lends itself more to Luka and Kyrie having the ball in their hands deeper into the clock, which is the goal if you ask me. 

Even if you think I'm crazy about the above, it's fairly clear that Ayton will be one of the biggest defensive liabilities out there for either team during a stretch like that. Most teams spread the floor at that point. You'd be begging for Ayton to be abused, just like he usually has been in PHX. 

This is literally why they want to trade him. Because he makes too much money for this to be even a conversation. You could say the same about Jokic, defensively, but nobody cares because he's Jokic on the other end.

[The Jom]

Agree, and to add to this, you just cannot have a guy out there who doesn't have to be guarded during that stretch. The other team KNOWS what you're about to run and has predetermined whether they'll double, and from where, meaning who they'll leave open. They determine matchups based on "pre-switching." 

Now, Ayton is juuuuuuuuust dangerous enough so as not to count as "don't have to guard him" but that sort of means he's going to end up in the paint off of the screen like almost every time, because you OBVIOUSLY can't have him out there on the perimeter. I hope we can all agree on that, at least. 

I, personally, do not WANT Ayton to be the most likely finisher of the majority of plays down the stretch. Others might feel differently, but give me a spread floor with screen setters who can relocate to a variety of different places and be a threat from all of them. More unpredictable, and lends itself more to Luka and Kyrie having the ball in their hands deeper into the clock, which is the goal if you ask me. 

Even if you think I'm crazy about the above, it's fairly clear that Ayton will be one of the biggest defensive liabilities out there for either team during a stretch like that. Most teams spread the floor at that point. You'd be begging for Ayton to be abused, just like he usually has been in PHX. 

This is literally why they want to trade him. Because he makes too much money for this to be even a conversation. You could say the same about Jokic, defensively, but nobody cares because he's Jokic on the other end.

There are counter moves though. It’s only this simple when the other team has the personnel to do what you want the Mavs to do. Having an Ayton or even a Capela is a useful tool in the drawer. You don’t play the Knicks the same way you play the Warriors. If Ayton only costs the chump change that the Mavs seem to be offering, I don’t know why you say no to that. Just don’t expect to close games with him against the Warriors.

[KillerLeft]

There are counter moves though. It’s only this simple when the other team has the personnel to do what you want the Mavs to do. Having an Ayton or even a Capela is a useful tool in the drawer. You don’t play the Knicks the same way you play the Warriors. If Ayton only costs the chump change that the Mavs seem to be offering, I don’t know why you say no to that. Just don’t expect to close games with him against the Warriors.

Totally and completely agree...if the guy you have makes Capela money (or ideally less), and not Ayton money. Also, it's helpful when that guy has a Capela motor and plays Capela defense, not an Ayton motor with Ayton defense.

[dirkfansince1998]

Ayton is a better perimeter defender than Capela. To go with an all time classic "It´s not even close". But his mobility and quickness isn´t helping as long as his head (and heart?) aren´t into it. In theory Ayton is one of the few bigs with the necessary combination of length and athleticism to stay on the floor in late game situations but the last time he showed more than flashes was the Suns finals run. With his contract it would be an extremly risky gamble. I guess slightly better than giving up a first for Capela but still a big no no.

[KillerLeft]

Ayton is a better perimeter defender than Capela. To go with an all time classic "It´s not even close". But his mobility and quickness isn´t helping as long as his head (and heart?) aren´t into it. In theory Ayton is one of the few bigs with the necessary combination of length and athleticism to stay on the floor in late game situations but the last time he showed more than flashes was the Suns finals run. With his contract it would be an extremly risky gamble. I guess slightly better than giving up a first for Capela but still a big no no.

I agree that Ayton's athletic profile suggests that he SHOULD be a useful, modern big. I'd stop short of even saying I've seen him do it, as you're suggesting, but I definitely trust your basketball acumen. 

But, as you say, he has no head and no heart.

Doesn't run the floor. 
Doesn't roll hard to the rim.
Has no post game, yet expects the ball in situations other than rim rolls (we know how that story ends around here)
Doesn't defend, at least not consistently.

I have seen Capela do ALL of that. Fairly recently. There was a time not so long ago when he was the best pick and roll defending big in the NBA. Kind of like Bill Cartwright was the best post defending big in the NBA for a while during his Bulls time. Nobody knew that, but it was a big part of that team.

[dirkfansince1998]

I agree that Ayton's athletic profile suggests that he SHOULD be a useful, modern big. I'd stop short of even saying I've seen him do it, as you're suggesting, but I definitely trust your basketball acumen. 

But, as you say, he has no head and no heart.

Doesn't run the floor. 
Doesn't roll hard to the rim.
Has no post game, yet expects the ball in situations other than rim rolls (we know how that story ends around here)
Doesn't defend, at least not consistently.

I have seen Capela do ALL of that. Fairly recently. There was a time not so long ago when he was the best pick and roll defending big in the NBA. Kind of like Bill Cartwright was the best post defending big in the NBA for a while during his Bulls time. Nobody knew that, but it was a big part of that team.

Kinda crazy how the narrative changed and how badly Ayton declined. From future DPOY (question was more about the number) and people arguing that he was the right pick over Luka to the current situation where fans aren´t willing to take on his contract without any additional assets included. 

Just to get an idea...

https://www.espn.com.au/nba/story/_/id/3...oenix-suns

https://fansided.com/2021/06/10/deandre-...uns-favor/

[The Jom]

It’s funny. I agree with so much of the anti-dinosaur sentiment here. But I just can’t get on the no-Ayton bandwagon. He still looks worth it to me.

[SleepingHero]

https://twitter.com/NBATradeReport/statu...79957?s=20

NBATradeReport (@NBATradeReport)
#Sources — Toronto has cooled off trade talks completely on both Pascal Siakam & OG Anunoby. Raptors will reassess throughout the regular season and into the upcoming trade deadline. #NBA

[KillerLeft]

https://twitter.com/NBATradeReport/statu...79957?s=20

NBATradeReport (@NBATradeReport)
#Sources — Toronto has cooled off trade talks completely on both Pascal Siakam & OG Anunoby. Raptors will reassess throughout the regular season and into the upcoming trade deadline. #NBA

I feel pretty bad for ATL fans. When Collins was dumped, it seems like they were told (or maybe not, but they got the idea, somehow) it was to make room for a big splash addition that was to happen this summer.

[SleepingHero]

I feel pretty bad for ATL fans. When Collins was dumped, it seems like they were told (or maybe not, but they got the idea, somehow) it was to make room for a big splash addition that was to happen this summer.

I do think ATL is trying their hardest to make a big splash, but it takes 2 to tango. I think the real story is how Toronto once again leads a team along during the summer asking exorbitant prices for their guys because Masai can't "lose" a trade. 

How many lost deals will it take before Masai is out of a job? The Dragic one comes to mind where TOR lost him for nothing, they just lost FVV for nothing. This Siakam+OG trade pussyfooting has been going on for the better part of 1.5 years. I hope the league freezes Toronto out of the market until Masai realizes he can't just pull one over GMs because he wants to.

[KillerLeft]

I do think ATL is trying their hardest to make a big splash, but it takes 2 to tango. I think the real story is how Toronto once again leads a team along during the summer asking exorbitant prices for their guys because Masai can't "lose" a trade. 

How many lost deals will it take before Masai is out of a job? The Dragic one comes to mind where TOR lost him for nothing, they just lost FVV for nothing. This Siakam+OG trade pussyfooting has been going on for the better part of 1.5 years. I hope the league freezes Toronto out of the market until Masai realizes he can't just pull one over GMs because he wants to.

Yeah, they have gotten annoying. Since Derozan, who you of course trade for Kawhi Leonard, they’ve basically lost all of their big names for nothing.

I’m as big a Siakim fan as the next guy, but they can’t seriously be considering a supermax, can they? When they only offer a Bane style max, or even less, will he be a problem? Even if he’s not, are they close enough for it to matter?

[RGP1981]

Nurk is a better solution than Capela.  Nurk is a better solution than Powell/McGee.

The perfect solution would be either Zubac or J.Allen.

---

Please answer...  would Capela be on the floor the final 5 minutes of a Mavs playoff game?

Disagree. I don't know what idea of Nurkic's defense you have in your head but he is not a better solution than Capela on defense. Also, I don't know why you are putting Zubac and J.Allen together like that. Allen is more mobile and much better at rim protection than Zubac.

By any chance, are you a fan of big Euro Centers with plodding feet and the turning circle of a tanker? If yes, it would have been better to get Jacob Poeltl, cause he's a better mover than Nurk, Jonas or Zubac. :p

To answer your last question, yes, I can see Capela on the floor in the final 5 minutes of a Mavs playoff game with the current roster and depending on the opponent... Kyrie, Green, Luka, Kleber or G-Will, Capela.

I would much rather prefer Allen to Capela... but if the choice is Capela, Holmes, Nurk, Jonas or Zubac, I'm going with Capela.

??? Capella was part of best Houston years. He was traded in the last desperate attempt to turn things around after the "genius" CP3 for Westbrook trade. It was that trade that started the Houston downfall, Capela and his weaknesses were minor problem compared to that trade. Capela was then part of TDL package that got Covington to Houston in an extreme small ball experiment that failed quickly.

This is what I remember too... and even if the Rockets' reason for trading Capela was what some are trying to say, that was a bad direction they went in.

[myconsumerclub]

I have to hope that Lively gets to start some and that he just sells everyone on his being way ahead of his projected development to earn a lot more play time early on.

Time gets you the experience to develop your game quicker so I am hoping he is good enough to earn that time.

Jokic and Embiid are annually fighting for MVP and showing that center is not a dead position.

You need to stop the other teams centers who are scoring threats. If we can see Lively work on that potential and he can defend then he is worth developing on offense as he produces well enough on D and so I will be ok with him getting most of the minutes at center.

We do not need him to show he can score a lot.

The only thing I want to see him do is master the other end of the floor and defend and maybe our 2 star PG's can make him look like an all star with perfect feeds that allow him to get many easy buckets so he produce enough that he can become a threat sooner.

We can engage in all the conjecture there is and cry about coulda shoulda woulda but we kind of have the mix of talent that we have and we should use what we have now to create a game plan that will win on both ends of the court and just see what we have before we engage in sending out any more of our trade assets so lets be patient and silent and that will signal that we are happy with what we have at center now.

We need to play what we have so we can evaluate it and then make a plan based on what we see after half a season.

Holmes could return and perform at his past performance level if so then we have a nice talented big to compliment what Lively has to offer and he can probably play PF some as well.

That then becomes a big win. Now we have a usable asset that other teams might think a lot differently about.

We could have rushed things and traded him off and gotten very little consideration for what he is able to do. PATIENCE is required.

This team has to be together and play next so we can determine what we have and then once that is done we can decide what it needs and if we need to make a trade happen to improve it anymore.

We do not need to be in a rush because teams will get hurt and lose and think that they need to trade someone or maybe a young guy does real well and now that team is thinking we need to sell off that center of ours because we have his future replacement now.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://twitter.com/flasportsbuzz/status...9105954816

[omahen]

So boring time Assuming Mavs don't do anything bigger, a couple of ideas what could be done with McGee and 2 SRP. I assume number one need is a rotation wing (that package won't bring starting centre, imho).

BKN: O'Neale. BKN has a ton of wings, but they might want more for expiring O'Neale. They could use a back-up centre and I am sure DFS and SD can explain what an asset McGee is In any case, that would be great result for Mavs, so probably not realistic
Cha: Cody Martin. Not sure if this one even requires draft assets, as Martin had a very bad year and his contract is even a year longer than McGee. Martin from a season before was useful, could he become that guy again?
Hou: Tate. I think wishfull thinking. Houston needs him way more than they need McGee. Still, the value is probably quite fair
Por: Little. Another wishfull thinking, because they probably value him higher than a couple of second rounders.
SA: Osman. I guess this one could have happened already, if teams were interested. SA could use a center like McGee though, to do a bit of dirty work instead of Wemby
Tor: OPJ. Basically one useless player for another. OPJ is expiring and sometimes could play.
Tor: Young. Fell of a cliff, but would be a better fit in Dal than McGee. Also expiring. Mavs could use some vet presence and hopefully some decent wing minutes

[Chicagojk]

So boring time Assuming Mavs don't do anything bigger, a couple of ideas what could be done with McGee and 2 SRP. I assume number one need is a rotation wing (that package won't bring starting centre, imho).

BKN: O'Neale. BKN has a ton of wings, but they might want more for expiring O'Neale. They could use a back-up centre and I am sure DFS and SD can explain what an asset McGee is In any case, that would be great result for Mavs, so probably not realistic
Cha: Cody Martin. Not sure if this one even requires draft assets, as Martin had a very bad year and his contract is even a year longer than McGee. Martin from a season before was useful, could he become that guy again?
Hou: Tate. I think wishfull thinking. Houston needs him way more than they need McGee. Still, the value is probably quite fair
Por: Little. Another wishfull thinking, because they probably value him higher than a couple of second rounders.
SA: Osman. I guess this one could have happened already, if teams were interested. SA could use a center like McGee though, to do a bit of dirty work instead of Wemby
Tor: OPJ. Basically one useless player for another. OPJ is expiring and sometimes could play.
Tor: Young. Fell of a cliff, but would be a better fit in Dal than McGee. Also expiring. Mavs could use some vet presence and hopefully some decent wing minutes

Nice list. I will need to think as there may be a couple of other names who would interest me.  I wonder if there are teams like charlotte, Orlando, or teams like that have a guy who is blocked that could be had for peanuts?

Maybe it is Exum or maybe Holmes, but I was thinking it would be awesome if they found a piece to fill the roster who would have demand like Niang or Strus had this offseason (10 plus per year). Even if that team was not Dallas.  It would just be great to find/develop a player from the fringe.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

It’s funny. I agree with so much of the anti-dinosaur sentiment here. But I just can’t get on the no-Ayton bandwagon. He still looks worth it to me.

Here's what I would say...  he's a $20m/yr player.  So his 3yr contract is worth $60m, resulting in $41.9m in dead money.

Our dead money...
McGee: worth $0, -$11.7m/2yr
THJ:  worth $11m, -$11.9m/2yr
Holmes: worth $3m, -$18.8/2yr

So to make the numbers match and give back PHX $20m/yr in value, this works.

-Wood (S&T 3yr, $10m/yr)
-THJ
-McGee
for
-Ayton

This would swap -$23.6m (THJ and McGee) of our dead money, resulting in the following overpay for Ayton (given his play stays the same):
2023: +$0.1m
2024: -$12.9m
2025: -$15.5m

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Here's what I would say...  he's a $20m/yr player.  So his 3yr contract is worth $60m, resulting in $41.9m in dead money.

Our dead money...
McGee: worth $0, -$11.7m/2yr
THJ:  worth $11m, -$11.9m/2yr
Holmes: worth $3m, -$18.8/2yr

So to make the numbers match and give back PHX $20m/yr in value, this works.

-Wood (S&T 3yr, $10m/yr)
-THJ
-McGee
for
-Ayton

This would swap -$23.6m (THJ and McGee) of our dead money, resulting in the following overpay for Ayton (given his play stays the same):
2023: +$0.1m
2024: -$12.9m
2025: -$15.5m

This would put us just under Apron 1.

Kyrie, Hardy, Exum
Green, Curry
Luka, OMax
G.Williams, Maxi
Ayton, Powell, Lively, Holmes

The only dead money left is Holmes' -$18.8m/2yr

For PHX...
Booker, Lee
Beasley, Ross, Gordon
Warren, THJ, Okogie
Durant, Bol
Eubanks, Wood

Thoughts?