Trade & FA 2023-24: 76ers Believe They Have A Shot at PG13

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

As Gump pointed out, that is not really accurate.  A big part of that was being able to trade him away without taking any salary back.  They dumped 24 mil off their cap sheet.  That has value regardless of the player.  Holmes is negative value, but if you were trading him for a neutral asset with similar contract, it should not require a first to do it.

Do you think he's worth more than the vet min?  If not, and I don't, his contract is -$20m over 2 years.  And yes, it'd take a FRP to move him.  I'd rather the chance that he'll bounce back and his $24m contract rather than moving him for a FRP.  He'll be a Mav at least to the TDL in 2025.

[dirkfansince1998]

I know he has no fans on this board outside of me since Kam left but as the resident +/- and advanced metrics nerd I have to mention his name.

5-year RAPM

Capela +3.22 28th +1.04 off 104th +2.19 def 19th
Nurkic +3.1 30th +0.63 off 177th +2.46 def 11th

There are no trade rumors linking the Mavs to Nurkic but when his name was mentioned in a potential trade for Thybulle it looked like the majority of this board viewed him as a negative asset. What is the difference between him and Capela? Fit? Narrative?

[ItsGoTime]

I know he has no fans on this board outside of me since Kam is gone but as the resident +/- and advanced metrics nerd I have to mention his name.

5-year RAPM

Capela +3.22 28th +1.04 off 104th +2.19 def 19th
Nurkic +3.1 30th +0.63 off 177th +2.46 def 11th

There are no trade rumors linking the Mavs to Nurkic but when his name was mentioned in a potential trade for Thybulle it looked like the majority of this board viewed him as a negative asset. What is the difference between him and Capela? Fit? Narrative?

For me, it’s his injury history. Being injured is 1 thing. Being injured for the playoffs is another entirely worse thing.

[ItsGoTime]

That’s another thing that I like about Capela. He’s really only had 1 season of injury. It’s really hard to find that in an available C (well, player these days).

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

Edit: hard pass on Nurkic.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

For me, it’s his injury history. Being injured is 1 thing. Being injured for the playoffs is another entirely worse thing.

Eek.  I had no idea he's so often injured.  22 games played last year.  Hard pass.

[dirkfansince1998]

Eek.  I had no idea he's so often injured.  22 games played last year.  Hard pass.

52 games. Definitely some injury concerns but one should at least mention that in the last two seasons the Blazers shut him down early because they decided to tank.

[ItsGoTime]

52 games. Definitely some injury concerns but one should at least mention that in the last two seasons the Blazers shut him down early because they decided to tank.

I guess I thought at least a season or two were of them shutting Lillard down because he wasn’t going to be back. I may be remembering wrong though.

[dirkfansince1998]

I guess I thought at least a season or two were of them shutting Lillard down because he wasn’t going to be back. I may be remembering wrong though.

18/19 Nurkic plays all games up to his freak injury in late march (Hayward, PG like fracture). Out for the playoffs.
19/20 Nurkic out for most of the season. Back just in time for the playoffs.
20/21Nurkic fractures his wrist in January. Out two month.
21/22 Lillard underwent surgery on his abdominal tear. Nurkic shut down after the allstar break. Tank.
22/23 Lillard and Nurkic both shut down after the allstar break. Tank.

[ItsGoTime]

18/19 Nurkic plays all games up to his freak injury in late march (Hayward, PG like fracture). Out for the playoffs.
19/20 Nurkic out for most of the season. Back just in time for the playoffs.
20/21Nurkic fractures his wrist in January. Out two month.
21/22 Lillard underwent surgery on his abdominal tear. Nurkic shut down after the allstar break. Tank.
22/23 Lillard and Nurkic both shut down after the allstar break. Tank.

Ok, so the playoffs thing isn’t as bad as I remember it. I could probably be talked into him for the right price. That injury history has me making a bid without in the way of + assets. When he does play, he would be a guy that starts, which is a goal checked off the list.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

18/19 Nurkic plays all games up to his freak injury in late march (Hayward, PG like fracture). Out for the playoffs.
19/20 Nurkic out for most of the season. Back just in time for the playoffs.
20/21Nurkic fractures his wrist in January. Out two month.
21/22 Lillard underwent surgery on his abdominal tear. Nurkic shut down after the allstar break. Tank.
22/23 Lillard and Nurkic both shut down after the allstar break. Tank.

Thanks for the context.  Not as bad as it appears.

[RGP1981]

Eek.  I had no idea he's so often injured.  22 games played last year.  Hard pass.

Nurkic is not very mobile either (similar to Jonas Valenciunas)... not a good thing in a rim protector in the modern game IMO (unless they are exceptional at some other aspect of offense)... and that goes double for a team that already needs to hide Luka on defense.

[omahen]

Nurkic is not very mobile either (similar to Jonas Valenciunas)... not a good thing in a rim protector in the modern game IMO (unless they are exceptional at some other aspect of offense)... and that goes double for a team that already needs to hide Luka on defense.

Totally agree. Those two guys are basically the opposite of what Mavs need. At least if they want to construct any kind of respectable defense. They might get rebounds (which I guess inflates their advanced defensive stats), but they can't switch on any scoring wing/guard and they will mostly play drop coverage. Which is a killer in playoffs. 

Someone else wondered, why NO is not interested in Capela - they need a floor spacing centre next to Zion. If he ever plays... And Atlanta likely doesn't want Valanciunas.

[omahen]

Nope.  You are remembering correctly.  HOU moved him because he couldn't stay on the court in D'Antoni's offense.  Could he fit in better here with Luka's deliberate pace?  Given his age and decline, I don't think so.

---

??? Capella was part of best Houston years. He was traded in the last desperate attempt to turn things around after the "genius" CP3 for Westbrook trade. It was that trade that started the Houston downfall, Capela and his weaknesses were minor problem compared to that trade. Capela was then part of TDL package that got Covington to Houston in an extreme small ball experiment that failed quickly.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I still wonder what SAS wants to do with Z.Collins long term now that they have Wimby. What do you think is fair value for him?

[mvossman]

I know he has no fans on this board outside of me since Kam left but as the resident +/- and advanced metrics nerd I have to mention his name.

5-year RAPM

Capela +3.22 28th +1.04 off 104th +2.19 def 19th
Nurkic  +3.1  30th +0.63 off 177th +2.46 def 11th

There are no trade rumors linking the Mavs to Nurkic but when his name was mentioned in a potential trade for Thybulle it looked like the majority of this board viewed him as a negative asset. What is the difference between him and Capela? Fit? Narrative?

I'm surprised you like Nurk.  He is not really a P&R center and he is more likely to get played off the court defensively than any of the centers we have talked about.  Thought you were bigger on mobile centers.

[omahen]

I still wonder what SAS wants to do with Z.Collins long term now that they have Wimby.  What do you think is fair value for him?

I am not fascinated at all. I think he is a bench player and I wouldn't spend any assets for him. Not because he is not worth a second rounder or two, but because I don't think he makes any difference. Mavs need a starting center, not another bench one. They already have 5 of those on the roster.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

??? Capella was part of best Houston years. He was traded in the last desperate attempt to turn things around after the "genius" CP3 for Westbrook trade. It was that trade that started the Houston downfall, Capela and his weaknesses were minor problem compared to that trade. Capela was then part of TDL package that got Covington to Houston in an extreme small ball experiment that failed quickly.

That's not at all how I remember it.  I'm not saying it was a successful trade or think their roadmap worked, but I do remember their reasoning for doing so.

I still ask the question...  would Capela be on the floor the for the last 5 minutes in a playoff game?

---

I am not fascinated at all. I think he is a bench player and I wouldn't spend any assets for him. Not because he is not worth a second rounder or two, but because I don't think he makes any difference. Mavs need a starting center, not another bench one. They already have 5 of those on the roster.

I think he starts at C on this roster.

[omahen]

That's not at all how I remember it.  I'm not saying it was a successful trade or think their roadmap worked, but I do remember their reasoning for doing so.

Since they brought the non shooting Westbrook, non shooting Capela certainly became an issue. Bringing in a better shooter (who was not a center), didn't solve their problems at all and all ended miserably. Pointing out, that Capela was not the problem. Also, lets not forget which team Houston was losing against in the playoffs - GSW in their prime with Durant.

[Ghost of Podkolzin]

I'm surprised you like Nurk.  He is not really a P&R center and he is more likely to get played off the court defensively than any of the centers we have talked about.  Thought you were bigger on mobile centers.

IMO, Nurk is a much better defender than you suggest.  I'm not saying he's Mutombo, but he's certainly better than Powell and McGee.  I think he could be gotten for little and would be an upgrade.  Don't let perfection be the enemy of better.