12-26-2020, 09:11 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-27-2020, 01:48 AM by SleepingHero.)
I think it can't really be simplified down to just missing KP and Luka being out of shape.
First, the offense is broken. It's something more systemic than just blaming one or two players. Meaning I don't think Luka being out of shape is making THJ shoot 31.8% from the field and 30% from 3. Or Maxi shoot 30% from the field and 33% from 3. I don't think it's us missing KP that is causing our bigs across the board play quite bad. I already touched on Maxi, but Powell has been underwhelming. He's passing up shots and generally just isn't playing his patented vertical style anymore. This is evident by the 2.5 rebounds a game he's averaging right now. He's not near the basket, and he isn't fighting vertically for boards when he is near there.
The ball movement looks stunted. The spacing looks off. Players are hesitant. Others don't even know the plays properly; with WCS, Boban, Johnson, and even Brunson being yelled at for being out of position on more than one occasion. Luka looks like he's having to work twice as hard to make the same moves. Teams are sitting on his favorite passes, making for easy picks. Is this a Luka problem? Or the fact that RC's offensive scheme has been figured out and hasn't adjusted yet? I think a mix a both, but leaning towards RC since he's the one that designs where players go on offense.
Despite Luka looking obviously off, he's been by far away our best player and the only reason our 2 games haven't been 40 point routs. He's averaging 29.5/6/6/ on 44% from the field. Luka's been averaging 50% from the field if we remove the horrid 1st quarter from PHX (not making excuses, but pointing out that Luka has gotten MUCH better as time has gone on; a good sign). The fall off from Luka is cataclysmic. Our next leading scorer is Josh Richardson with 14.5 ppg.
Second, the defense, though improved, is still a ways from where we need it to be. Nothing is humming. Individually, I think there are bright spots, mainly Richardson, but DFS, Johnson, Maxi, and even Luka has had their moments. Heck Willie has had a possession or two that has made me go "Oh wow". However, as a team? It's been horrible. No getting around it. Gave up 106 to PHX, and then 138 to Lakers? Both teams averaged 53% from the field (PHX 48.1%, LAL 56%). Can't win games if you can't get stops. It's surprising the Mavs have been so disjointed on defense, given Carlisle's focus on it in training camp by his own admission.
Third, I think our bench took a noted step back after removing Seth. We took what was one of the league's best shooters (of all time) that came off the bench for us and provided instant offense, and turned it into a great starter, but never replaced that production. Instead we hoped the Burke+Brunson duo to replace that kind of shooting by committee and prayed that a rookie could fill in the gaps. Needless to say it hasn't worked yet. Brunson hasn't shown he's made ANY sort of marked improvement from last season, let alone his rookie season. His decision making has left a lot to be desired. I counted 4 straight possessions against the Lakers where Brunson just gave the Lakers the ball with sloppy passes or bad dribbling. These are rookie mistakes I could live with, but Brunson isn't a rookie anymore, and he's running out of rope in my eyes. His game against PHX was also a shitstorm of turnovers and forced shots until he caught fire in the 4th making impossible layup after layup for 12 points. That kind of erraticism is not a good recipe if we want a consistent bench that all good western playoff teams have. Burke is coming off his scorching hot run in the bubble and returning back to what he always was, and that's a volume shooter with microwave tendencies. The only sad part is we have that kind of skillset with THJ in the starting lineup, making him redundant at best and inconsistent at worst.
How to fix the bench? The only obvious choice and something a poster here already posed is to move THJ there. I'm not entirely convinced that would fix anything though, mainly because last year THJ looked terrible off the bench. Maybe this year it'd be different? I don't know but it doesn't hurt to try at least for 1 game. Other than that there isn't a clear way to make it work in my eyes and needs to be addressed through a trade.
Finally, a writeup about why the Mavs are so shit right now wouldn't be complete without mentioning KP and Luka. It remains to be seen how not having KP is fucking everything up. He could come back in January and everything falls in place. He could come back and none of our problems are fixed. I think it's somewhere in-between. KP has become a sneaky good rebounder and his defensive acumen is well-documented, so it's hard to believe at least those two areas not getting better upon his return. KP's spacing also should (hopefully) help the spacing on the offensive end, and in turn make it easier for others to score, namely Luka.
Luka is out of shape. He's said it. Brad Townsend's said it. Cuban said it. Your wife probably said it. We all notice it. He doesn't have the same pep to his step. Now, thankfully Luka has said he's working everyday to improve this. And as I noted above, he's only gotten better so far. And it should be noted that Luka Donthick is still averaging 29.5/6/6. It isn't his standard that we're used to, but it's still better than almost every player in the NBA save 7 or 8 at the top right now.
Overall, I'm nervous about how the Mavs performed, as I don't think they're quick fixes. I think we're relying on subpar NBA players at their position to play heavy minutes while we wait for reinforcements (Namely Powell, and Burke). I think what are supposed to be our good NBA starters are shitting the bed in the worst way. THJ is playing like a regression is all but confirmed and Maxi has hit a total of 20 threes since August. Richardson is playing 'okay', and if not for his supernova preseason I wouldn't be disappointed in him. Johnson in his limited minutes has been largely non-existent besides a few good defensive plays. Brunson has been on a pendulum of bad-good NBA basketball and I just want off this wild ride. I feel like WCS is going to become the next Roddy B, and we'll all clamor for him calling for Rick to "Free Trillie Willie!" and he'll be out of the league in 2 years. Powell as a topic is starting to become persona-non-grata for me that has been explored every which way with valid points on both sides. "Break in case of emergency Boban" is still just that. The rookies don't look like anything special yet (though they haven't been given a real chance).
I think the Mavs need a trade in the worst way. Turner, Hield, Oladipo. Big shakeups. I don't think that will help this group gel any better this year, but its really more of a testament to how much I believe in the current guys we have, which is not that much. Luka/KP are the only untouchables. Richardson should be our hardest to get asset after them. I still think Maxi is a lynchpin defender that the Mavs shouldn't easily give up. The rest can all be had for pennies on the dollar if was up to me.
But I'm not in charge, and stepping back from the reactionary plank, we probably just need to stay the course and trust Carlisle will find something soon. It's only been 2 games. Yes the things in those 2 games don't give much hope for the next 10, and every team had the same condensed offseason, but it's only been 2 games. You can't run a team properly if by every small bump you blow it up. Again I think we need a trade, but it's not going to come anytime soon if Donnie is any good at his job and thankfully I think he is.
If you made it this far thanks for reading it all. If you didn't well TL;DR there are a lot of reasons why the Mavs suck doodoo donkey right now. For my next trick, I predict for Rick to start Boban next game.
First, the offense is broken. It's something more systemic than just blaming one or two players. Meaning I don't think Luka being out of shape is making THJ shoot 31.8% from the field and 30% from 3. Or Maxi shoot 30% from the field and 33% from 3. I don't think it's us missing KP that is causing our bigs across the board play quite bad. I already touched on Maxi, but Powell has been underwhelming. He's passing up shots and generally just isn't playing his patented vertical style anymore. This is evident by the 2.5 rebounds a game he's averaging right now. He's not near the basket, and he isn't fighting vertically for boards when he is near there.
The ball movement looks stunted. The spacing looks off. Players are hesitant. Others don't even know the plays properly; with WCS, Boban, Johnson, and even Brunson being yelled at for being out of position on more than one occasion. Luka looks like he's having to work twice as hard to make the same moves. Teams are sitting on his favorite passes, making for easy picks. Is this a Luka problem? Or the fact that RC's offensive scheme has been figured out and hasn't adjusted yet? I think a mix a both, but leaning towards RC since he's the one that designs where players go on offense.
Despite Luka looking obviously off, he's been by far away our best player and the only reason our 2 games haven't been 40 point routs. He's averaging 29.5/6/6/ on 44% from the field. Luka's been averaging 50% from the field if we remove the horrid 1st quarter from PHX (not making excuses, but pointing out that Luka has gotten MUCH better as time has gone on; a good sign). The fall off from Luka is cataclysmic. Our next leading scorer is Josh Richardson with 14.5 ppg.
Second, the defense, though improved, is still a ways from where we need it to be. Nothing is humming. Individually, I think there are bright spots, mainly Richardson, but DFS, Johnson, Maxi, and even Luka has had their moments. Heck Willie has had a possession or two that has made me go "Oh wow". However, as a team? It's been horrible. No getting around it. Gave up 106 to PHX, and then 138 to Lakers? Both teams averaged 53% from the field (PHX 48.1%, LAL 56%). Can't win games if you can't get stops. It's surprising the Mavs have been so disjointed on defense, given Carlisle's focus on it in training camp by his own admission.
Third, I think our bench took a noted step back after removing Seth. We took what was one of the league's best shooters (of all time) that came off the bench for us and provided instant offense, and turned it into a great starter, but never replaced that production. Instead we hoped the Burke+Brunson duo to replace that kind of shooting by committee and prayed that a rookie could fill in the gaps. Needless to say it hasn't worked yet. Brunson hasn't shown he's made ANY sort of marked improvement from last season, let alone his rookie season. His decision making has left a lot to be desired. I counted 4 straight possessions against the Lakers where Brunson just gave the Lakers the ball with sloppy passes or bad dribbling. These are rookie mistakes I could live with, but Brunson isn't a rookie anymore, and he's running out of rope in my eyes. His game against PHX was also a shitstorm of turnovers and forced shots until he caught fire in the 4th making impossible layup after layup for 12 points. That kind of erraticism is not a good recipe if we want a consistent bench that all good western playoff teams have. Burke is coming off his scorching hot run in the bubble and returning back to what he always was, and that's a volume shooter with microwave tendencies. The only sad part is we have that kind of skillset with THJ in the starting lineup, making him redundant at best and inconsistent at worst.
How to fix the bench? The only obvious choice and something a poster here already posed is to move THJ there. I'm not entirely convinced that would fix anything though, mainly because last year THJ looked terrible off the bench. Maybe this year it'd be different? I don't know but it doesn't hurt to try at least for 1 game. Other than that there isn't a clear way to make it work in my eyes and needs to be addressed through a trade.
Finally, a writeup about why the Mavs are so shit right now wouldn't be complete without mentioning KP and Luka. It remains to be seen how not having KP is fucking everything up. He could come back in January and everything falls in place. He could come back and none of our problems are fixed. I think it's somewhere in-between. KP has become a sneaky good rebounder and his defensive acumen is well-documented, so it's hard to believe at least those two areas not getting better upon his return. KP's spacing also should (hopefully) help the spacing on the offensive end, and in turn make it easier for others to score, namely Luka.
Luka is out of shape. He's said it. Brad Townsend's said it. Cuban said it. Your wife probably said it. We all notice it. He doesn't have the same pep to his step. Now, thankfully Luka has said he's working everyday to improve this. And as I noted above, he's only gotten better so far. And it should be noted that Luka Donthick is still averaging 29.5/6/6. It isn't his standard that we're used to, but it's still better than almost every player in the NBA save 7 or 8 at the top right now.
Overall, I'm nervous about how the Mavs performed, as I don't think they're quick fixes. I think we're relying on subpar NBA players at their position to play heavy minutes while we wait for reinforcements (Namely Powell, and Burke). I think what are supposed to be our good NBA starters are shitting the bed in the worst way. THJ is playing like a regression is all but confirmed and Maxi has hit a total of 20 threes since August. Richardson is playing 'okay', and if not for his supernova preseason I wouldn't be disappointed in him. Johnson in his limited minutes has been largely non-existent besides a few good defensive plays. Brunson has been on a pendulum of bad-good NBA basketball and I just want off this wild ride. I feel like WCS is going to become the next Roddy B, and we'll all clamor for him calling for Rick to "Free Trillie Willie!" and he'll be out of the league in 2 years. Powell as a topic is starting to become persona-non-grata for me that has been explored every which way with valid points on both sides. "Break in case of emergency Boban" is still just that. The rookies don't look like anything special yet (though they haven't been given a real chance).
I think the Mavs need a trade in the worst way. Turner, Hield, Oladipo. Big shakeups. I don't think that will help this group gel any better this year, but its really more of a testament to how much I believe in the current guys we have, which is not that much. Luka/KP are the only untouchables. Richardson should be our hardest to get asset after them. I still think Maxi is a lynchpin defender that the Mavs shouldn't easily give up. The rest can all be had for pennies on the dollar if was up to me.
But I'm not in charge, and stepping back from the reactionary plank, we probably just need to stay the course and trust Carlisle will find something soon. It's only been 2 games. Yes the things in those 2 games don't give much hope for the next 10, and every team had the same condensed offseason, but it's only been 2 games. You can't run a team properly if by every small bump you blow it up. Again I think we need a trade, but it's not going to come anytime soon if Donnie is any good at his job and thankfully I think he is.
If you made it this far thanks for reading it all. If you didn't well TL;DR there are a lot of reasons why the Mavs suck doodoo donkey right now. For my next trick, I predict for Rick to start Boban next game.
14x All-Star, 12x all-NBA, 1x MVP, 1x Finals MVP, 1 NBA Championship: Dirk Nowitzki, the man, the myth, the legend.