What is the probability that Kyrie will be a Mav next season?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Thanks for your views.

I don't understand why you landed on 190M in your projection. That's well over the 2nd apron (which you seem to think Cuban will stay below) and not sure what it represents (if anything). (Was it perhaps meant to be written as ~180M, ie the 2nd apron?)

Yes...math error.  Should have been $162mm (though that could go up a little) plus $17.5mm = ~$180mm.  If we max out Kyrie and use the TP-MLE and do nothing but bring back the players who are under contract and sign minimums, we are at $170mm already.  That doesn't leave much room for a 125% trade match (like Bertans for Turner) or for the retention of either Powell or Wood if that is something they want to do.  And what if they somehow keep a top 10 pick?

I'm not sure why Kyrie has to be paid $47mm when Luka is making $40mm.  Is Harden a precedent for something more like $38mm-$40mm?  If you S/W Bertans (you really need to if he isn't being traded with a pick for an upgrade) and get Kyrie to take $40mm, it would save $20mm off of that $170mm number.  Now you have some room to maneuver.  If you trade Bertans for a more expensive player, but get Kyrie for $40mm, you may have room for Wood and the TP-MLE if you don't get a top 10 pick.  They aren't totally screwed, but they are limited.

I agree with your comment about drafting well.  We continue to hand out picks like a Pez dispenser.  I will point out though that our last three non-Luka picks have been Brunson, Green and Hardy.  All three look like to be really good value for the slots they were taken.  What happens afterwards is obviously a different and painful story right now.