What is the probability that Kyrie will be a Mav next season?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Feel differently after Cubans comments yesterday?

He talked about the new CBA and hinted there’s probably a number where they have to walk away.

---

"I don't know," Cuban stated. "I guess there's always too high a price, depending, but now with the new CBA, it's a different world."

So, we now have Cuban's first read of the impact of the new CBA.  He's basically saying teams need to make sure they avoid the "super-tax" (or second apron) which is $17.5mm over the tax line.  It isn't the financial penalty so much.  Those haven't changed and in fact have eased just a bit.  It is the competitive penalties for teams that cross the line:

1.  No TP MLE use
2.  Can't participate in the buyout market
3.  Can't trade picks 7 years out
4.  Can't take back excess money in trades (no 125% rule).

There is reporting, but no details yet on some of these.  The Kyrie trade would have violated two of these and would have been illegal if it were made under the new CBA.  We took on 8 million in excess salary which put us over the second apron for 22/23.  Since it happened in a year we used the TP-MLE, it would not have worked (violation 1).  Since it put us $17.5mm over the tax with the incoming excess salary, it would not have worked (violation 2).

So, if you are trying to figure out the summer plan, plug in ~$190mm as a hard cap for Cuban.  Oh, and not just this year, but going forward as Green and Hardy are eligible for extensions.  Plug in also his belief that other teams will feel the same way creating opportunities that may or may not materialize (Draymond Green).