ARTICLES & PODS: ROSTER OVERHAUL NEEDED

[DanSchwartzgan]

Yeah, I don't get the fascination with these types, I really don't. 

Maybe my paradigm on this is too limiting, and maybe we should just be happy with the Mavs adding talent like Conley or Lowry, but to me, their star is 22, and he is already almost beating the freaking Clippers in a 7-game series! Why not add younger prospects around Luka who can grow with him and the team? I mean, it's a totally different story if we're talking about Kawhi Leonard or Dame Lillard - I'd take that top tier of guy at any age. But these tier-2 types who are well into their 30's don't make a lot of sense, imo, because the Mavs' roster isn't ready to take full advantage of them.

So three points on this:

1.  I've looked and for the life of me I can't find an unrestricted, under 25, strong defender who can create shots for himself and others and hit 3's at a high level (sorry for the snarky response).  Ball fits the age criteria, but is a step down from the Lowry, Conley and DeRozan tier.  He's kind of like KP in that "the idea" of Ball is better than the reality.  Now, if I'm going to argue that THT has upside, I have to allow for the same with Ball.  But so far, he's just a guy.  His PER and WS/48 his two years in NO are below average 14.1 and 0.72.  His TS% is way below average because 1. He's just an average shooter from 3 and 2. He NEVER gets to the line.  His FT Attempt Rate is 223rd in the NBA.  I'm a little afraid if we do get him, two years from now we will look back and recognize that he wasn't actually all that special.  Oh, and there is the whole restricted thing and the desire to go to NY or Chicago thing.

2. I'm not worried about the timeline thing at all.  The team that lost the Conference Finals in 03 (Finley/Nash) was different than the one that went to the Finals in 06 (Terry/Josh Howard) was different than the one that went back in 11 (Chandler, Marion, Kidd and Terry).  We are trying to get to the 03 version of Luka's career.  If we don't, we may not see the 06 version of Luka's career.  I don't really mind paying one of these older guys.  I'd much rather hand out two year deals, but timing them to expire three years from now when KP expires would provide an opportunity for a reset in 2024.  We have to walk before we can run which means we have to at the very least establish that we are a tier higher than where we are currently.    

3.  You've said it a couple of times since this post...maybe any kind of talent infusion would look like a positive change.  Perfect is the enemy of good and I don't see perfect anywhere on the horizon.  I've said it before, but I think if we signed Crowder instead of Phoenix, we could very well still be playing.  We caught LAC while they still had Kawhi and took them to seven.  It isn't hard to imagine one more competent defender who can hit a three putting us over the top.  Take Crowder off the Phoenix team and they aren't the same.  Marginal changes at the top of the west make a big difference.  You really aren't giving up anything swapping out Hardaway for Conley.  But, you are certainly gaining quite a bit.  Add that improvement plus go find the 2021 version of Crowder (I happen to like Batum, but there are other candidates) and we are arguably much better (and deeper).

By all accounts, things were pretty jacked up in Mav's Land behind the scenes.  Yet, once we got everyone healthy, this was the sixth best team in the NBA (Net Rating) with the sixth best O and 14th best D since March 1st (and it often appeared we were trying to lose games).  The teams above us all have some off-season issues (especially Utah if we steal Conley).  I think we have a shot of making the kind of change that gets us another couple of rounds in the playoffs.  I would absolutely love to add two superstars this summer, but I'm not willing to stand still waiting for that to happen when some marginal improvement would probably give Luka a fighting chance now.  I think we'd be there right already if we had simply added a net positive guy with an average PER or WS/48 each of the last two summers.