The Justin Jackson Hype Train! All Things Justin

[Scott41theMavs]

Something to bear in mind regarding Jackson is the fact that in 2021 his cap hold is $12 million. So, he either needs to be worth that by then or be a sweetener between now and then.

My observations regarding Jackson are he needs minutes and the freedom to be an important part of the offense to thrive. I observed last season that his per minute production was dramatically better when he got 25 minutes or more and was quite pedestrian when he played less. This season, his two man lineups are horrendous when he’s in with Luka or KP (doesn’t get touches). But, the lineups are quite productive when he plays with Brunson, Wright, Powell or DFS.

I think the Mav’s have a keeper in Jackson, but like most of the rest of the team, they haven’t quite figured out what to do with him yet.

Great post, Dan, and the $12 mil info is extremely useful. Bottom line for me is that I'm gunshy to get too attached to any players not named Luka and KP, since this team lacks clear cut starters outside of those two, and several of the current players are likely to be trade bait for those starters. I am basically enjoying the bench mob (plus whoever the three fake starters for that particular game are) for now much as we would have enjoyed the Wright/Nelson Mavs more if we knew what was coming next, knowing that we will likely close the year after (probably) two several-for-one trades with a far better starting lineup but not enough of a bench to get out of the first round. The bench will be rebuilt in the offseason. I just hope it doesn't end up being the proverbial Rondo that we traded for when it happens. But I fully expect Justin to be one of the six or seven guys we sent out in trade.

On sending out enough players to deplete the bench... I don't think we can. We are seriously deep. We could send out a couple at each position and still have depth as long as we got one back at that position. The only position we couldn't trade and NOT get someone back is probably the 5 - unless the mavs do something that they have said they don't plan to do - categorize Porzingis as a 5. They view him as a 4 (as do I). I view this roster as one of the more trade-friendly versions in recent memory. That is probably by design, but also a credit to many players on the roster being able to float up/down the lineup and play multiple positions.

I'm looking at 1) how poor the starting lineup is (basically, three bench guys being thrown to the wolves who would do fantastic against opposing bench players), and 2) the fact that trades out will likely include Lee and hopefully (wishfully?) THJ, with several sweeteners needing to be sent out with each of those guys to get the other team to send out a starter. That in mind, I think that Jackson and Brunson are the Mavs least likely to be on roster at the end of the year other than Lee. They will be necessary as cheap sweeteners to unload Lee and get back something of worth, since we don't have first rounders available for trade for the next four years for the time being.

I have Wright as a guy who is just fine in the starting lineup ***if*** he is your fifth-best starter, and none of our other guys not named Luka and KP having any business in the starting lineup of a contending team.

I also have in the back of my mind that our offseason makes no sense as a dynamic strategy (i.e., what we really wanted to do instead of just having gotten caught flat-footed) unless the Mavs have specific plans for the Barnes trade exception.

I'm sniffing two trades. Who goes out, who comes in, I don't know, but I think that 1) the centerpieces of those two trades will be starter-caliber players, and 2) much of the bench mob is adios. I'll also "bet" that if I'm wrong, it's that there's one trade involving Lee and two or three bench mobsters as sweeteners, and that the Mavs keep THJ because he's immovable this year, but able to be traded when we have our pick on draft night and he's an expirer next year.