GameThread: The Preseason Trilogy: DAL (2-1) 127 vs. MIN (1-2) Boban 3pt Marksman

[SleepingHero]

Instead of further polluting the prediction thread, let me provide a few comments here on some of the more common criticisms I’ve seen:

That's too much nuance Dan, get out of the gamethread. 

I jest of course, good post and I see where you're coming from. First, I don't think you're a Powell apologist and I don't think the criticisms (outside some hyperbolic statements) that have been made on Powell in this thread can be classified as hating him. I think we're all fans with strong opinions and Powell as a subject just happens to be a very contested subject. I don't mean to write an entire essay, but I want to try and approach my feelings on Powell with as much nuance as you, so forgive my ramble. 

One issue I did have with your post is that you posit that a majority of criticisms of Powell is mainly from just not watching him properly. I watch Powell. I still think my criticisms are valid. I see his defensive rotations. His team defense I don't normally have an issue with because he does make the correct rotation. Now whether or not he's effective even when he makes a correct rotation is another discussion. Powell has always been a subpar defender. I didn't think pointing that out was controversial. 


Second, Powell does have one elite individual offensive skill. That one skill does just so happen to raise the floor of the entire team offense while he's out there and provide plenty of opportunities for his teammates as well as himself. I acknowledge that. Powell as a roll man is about as good as it got.  However, if you want to point to Powell's individual offensive rating as proof to him having more than just a single skill then I vehemently deny that. ORTG is heavily biased towards efficient producers on low volume. The formula itself is comprised of components that are tipped in favor of big men that aren't the teams offensive engine. The formula boils down to the points produced by the individual divided by the number of possessions that person has. Of course, this is an oversimplification for the sake of brevity, but all in all Powell has ALWAYS been a monster of efficiency. A posterchild of playing to your strengths. Of his 229 FGA last season, 190 came within the restricted area (155 of those at the rim). Given the fact that the main subtractors in the ORTG formula that lower your offensive rating are turnovers and missed points scored (FG+FTs), and that Powell's game isn't made to highlight his shot creation or shooting ability , it's no wonder his ORTG is overinflated. As is the majority of NBA big men by the way. Deandre Jordan posted a 129 ORTG, Montrez Harrell 119, Daniel Thies 130. Meanwhile Lamarcus Aldridge had a 115 ORTG. Are those big men more skilled than Aldridge? I wouldn't say so. Obviously, team success is also an important factor in offensive rating, since it's reliant on how the team performs when that individual is out there versus how they perform when he isn't out there as well. So of course, players on generally good teams tend to have a higher ORTG than others and even when that player plays affects their ORTG. Does this mean ORTG is useless? No. But it's not meant to justify an individual player's skill, but rather just another piece in the puzzle that builds the picture of how effective that player is to a team. 

Also if you want to include screen setting as an elite offensive skill I agree. It's important to have that for a good offense  and Powell is an above average screen setter. That skill didn't come to mind in my original post. So sure Powell has one elite offensive skill and one above average offensive skill that we both agree on. 

Finally, since it's easy to make proclamations about a player, I want to actually bring some substance by reviewing some plays of Powell and his defense. In the Timberwolves game, Powell did have a tough assignment, especially considering he's coming back from injury. But he also didn't perform that well either at all. 

First play of the game, Powell does a good job containing the PnR, and THJ stops the KAT jump shot, but then Powell is left to guard KAT in the post and it results in 2 easy points. https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FGM&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=31800&GameID=0012000036&PlayerID=1626157&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Pre%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612750&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game&CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*

Again Powell does a good job rotating cutting off the drive, but lets KAT get deep post position and can't contest. (period 1, 06:08 time remaining) https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FGM&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=31800&GameID=0012000036&PlayerID=1626157&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Pre%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612750&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game&CF=PLAYER_NAME*E* 

And before you tell me I'm picking out Powell on his individual defense, here's a play where Powell shades too high (probably to stop a KAT 3), and gives a wide open drive to Rubio. One could argue that THJ was too far over, but given that Edwards was hot all night, he couldn't leave his man, thus the onus is on Powell. Here is a clear cut example of a BAD rotation by Powell (period 2, 03:51 time remaining)  https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FGM&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=31800&GameID=0012000036&PlayerID=201937&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Pre%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612750&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game 

Another example of a bad rotation by Powell. He rotates over to stop the Beasley drive forcing him into a jumpshot, but leaves too early before Richardson has a chance to get back into the play, giving Beasley a wide open jumpshot. (period 1, 09:41 time remaining)  https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FGM&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=31800&GameID=0012000036&PlayerID=1627736&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Pre%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612750&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game

Here's Powell guarding Naz Reid, and has to guard another Rubio PnR. Powell drops incredibly low daring Rubio to take a jumpshot which is the right gameplan given Rubio's spottiness as a shooter. The only issue is that Powell for whatever reason stops guarding Rubio before DFS has a chance to recover, giving up a wide open shot. Pause at 6 seconds and you'll see Powell starting to rotate towards Reid who's at the freethrow line, and DFS not being there to contest. (period 3, 07:39 time remaining) https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FGM&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=31800&GameID=0012000036&PlayerID=201937&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Pre%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612750&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game 

Here's Powell standing still as a statue not rotating at all letting Layman get a free dunk (period 3, 11:13 time remaining) https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FGA&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=31800&GameID=0012000036&PlayerID=1627774&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Pre%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612750&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game 

Here's Powell chasing Jake Layman and forgetting to find KAT at the top of the key giving up a wide open 3 with a late contest. The same KAT who is their biggest threat and one of the best big man shooters of all time (period 1, 05:30 time remaining)  https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FGM&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=31800&GameID=0012000036&PlayerID=1626157&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Pre%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612750&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game&CF=PLAYER_NAME*E* 

Powell bites on a pumpfake and gives a free walk to the rim for a dunk. (period 3, 09:29 time remaining) https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FGM&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=31800&GameID=0012000036&PlayerID=1626157&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Pre%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612750&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game&CF=PLAYER_NAME*E* 

8 plays, 17 points, all in the same game. Of course Powell had some good defensive rotations, but he also made plenty of mistakes after he made that rotation. He couldn't guard KAT for the most part, and gave up easy shots to other players as well. 

Just so you don't think I hate Powell, here's a really good play where he has a good close-out on KAT, and recovers after a flurry of moves and forces the pass out https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FGA&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=31800&GameID=0012000036&PlayerID=1629006&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Pre%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612750&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game (period 1, 08:41 time remaining)

By in large though Powell is not a good defender, and I think it's a little silly to think otherwise. And my biggest issue right now is that I don't think Powell is ever going to return to what he was. He had a devastating non-contact injury in what is probably the worse injury an NBA player can have. Historically all athletic people in the NBA, besides Dominique Wilkens for 1 season, never returned to what they were after an achilles tear. 

It's perfectly valid to say I'm jumping the gun. But I don't think Powell is magically going to regain his athleticism that he's most obviously lost. In his 3 preseason games, Powell has had 3 alley-oop attempts. He's 1/3 on them. Not only has that volume plummeted, the finish rate has as well. And that's across the board.  He shot 35% from the field in preseason (7/20), a far cry from his 60% he hovered around pre-injury. 8 of his 20 shot attempts came from outside the restricted area. That is a marked change in how Powell used to play.  Does pointing all of this out mean I hate Powell? I hope it doesn't. Because again, I don't hate Powell. I think there can be a role on this team for him. I just think the role that he played in preseason isn't the correct one, and there has been little evidence to suggest that the Mavs aren't going to stop with Powell experiment in the starting unit. And I think its supremely disappointing given that the Mavs have Maxi Kleber, who I believe has done more than enough to earn a starting spot. He's a solid screen setter, his defense is elite, and he can actually shoot the ball. 

That's where I'm coming from. I'm not a blind Powell hater. Do I make a point to point out all the times he lets teams score on him? Sure. But I did the same damn thing with Erick Dampier and Shawn Bradley. 

I hope this has more nuance and less hyperbole that you're looking for in a gamethread.