The future of center play in the NBA

[KillerLeft]

My point is, and maybe you just don't get it, he SHOULD be used and he would be VERY effective in the 'SPURTS' to use your word that he is most effective in. 


My argument is about what those spurts should be, could be and when consensus 'box thinkers' are NOT maximizing his skills and talent. 

A high % near guaranteed 2 point shot that also has a strong chance of drawing a foul for example is a VERY effective tool when used in the right SPURT of the game. 
Let's say for example when you have a significant lead and time is running out in the game.  The other team has to not only score but they MUST stop your normally high powered offense from scoring too. (Sound Familiar?). 

Shaq could pretty much seal your win in that SPURT of the game, shooting 60% and higher from the paint and forcing a few fouls too, not mention securing rebounds.  
Do you have a problem with that reasoning? 

I'm saying that some 'brilliant' coaches are NOT doing this simple thing because they are so deeply entrenched in the modern game analytics (in the box) they can't utilize the old school talent in the right spurts. 

No, no...I think I get it. 

You're saying that down the stretch in a big game, you'd view that as a spurt where not only should Boban play more often, but that the offense should literally be run through him, and to support this you continuously point out that this strategy would virtually guarantee high percentage shots. You're saying that this is even more desirable in situations where the Mavs have a lead. You also seem to suggest often that "analytics" are somehow to blame for coaches and fans not acknowledging this concept that only Mensa card carrying Dahlism can see from his vantage point, way, way out of the box.  

I just disagree. (going to have to deviate from the topic at hand just a little here to get to my destination, sorry) 

I think the spread offense with the ball in Luka's hands is the closest thing to an automatic good look (with a high chance of drawing a foul, as you say) I've ever seen the Mavericks have to throw out there. It's far more of sure thing than that two-man game between Jet and Dirk, which is saying something, in my opinion, as that was soooooo taken for granted by fans here. I think Luka has brought with him to Dallas the potential for offensive efficiency the likes of which we could only imagine before. I think the offense bogged down in late game big moments because A) the other team plays much harder during those stretches and B) Luka and some other young Mavs haven't been around the block quite enough yet to anticipate that and overcome it. There's a little "sphincter tightening" going on. 

Everyone talks about how Luka was a pro for years before coming over, so he doesn't need experience to succeed. He's ready now! This is true, to a point, and is definitely a reason he has risen so meteorically, but it's not an absolute. You know when experience stops being something you need to win? When you have more of it than your opponent.  Period.  This is the problem with the Mavs down the stretch in big game situations, and you know, I think we just saw some pretty MAJOR progress get made on this front in the Clippers series, tbh. 

Back to your insistence that Boban helps them in that situation: I don't think this acknowledges that at that point in the game, the Boban post up goes from a really nice change of pace wrinkle to the single most important thing the opposing defense has to figure out. I think that in your hypothetical, never to be seen at any point in the future scenario, the increased level of focus and hard play (by the other team's closing five players, not their bench) makes it much, much more difficult for Boban to get into position, receive the pass, etc.

Since denying the post pass has become so much easier for these long, quick, defenders to do since the Shaq days, the type of pass he's going to get is the type that will require him to adjust more than what's comfortable to receive. Now, Boban has GREAT hands, but have you observed what he does in 50/50 ball situations? I have. The word "coatrack" comes to mind. There would absolutely be an increase in turnovers with this approach. 

If/when they can even get these plays started, I don't believe he'd score nearly as effectively as he does in a 6 minute stretch during the 2nd quarter. Again, he's now dealing with the other team's best group, who is very focused, and he's in a pressure situation that will affect him the same way it affects everyone else. I don't anticipate that he shoots 60% under these circumstances. 

If these possessions result in double teams, which is possible but not automatic, I don't trust him to pass out of them. I flatly don't think he's good at making passes that aren't directionally right in front of his facing. If they result in one on one shot attempts, I do agree that drawing a foul is a possibility, but probably not a consistently likely one, given how the game is officiated in the last five minutes. And, though he's a good FT shooter, especially for a big, are Boban free throws, under pressure, really what you're aiming for down the stretch against a good team? 

And btw, NONE of this deals with the undeniable fact that regardless of how this works on offense, the other team is 100% going to immediately put their best player in a spread pick and roll with whomever the Mavs have Boban guarding, Boban is likely going to have to play drop coverage, and that other team's best player is going to leisurely come around the screen and dribble into an open shot (probably a 3) from their exact, most favorite spot on the floor, a spot where they've shot hundreds of balls per day every day for as long as they can remember. This is simply the best case scenario for an opposing offense trying to catch up from behind. That's the lowest amount of pressure possible. You're not forcing them to execute a single pass, and giving them their best case scenario shot. 

No, I don't agree that taking the ball out of Luka's hands, denying him the late game experience he so desperately needs, just to play out the above scenario is a good idea, nor do I think it's "out of the box thinking." It's pretty limited thinking, actually. It's checkers. It fails to account for so many intersecting concepts and completely loses sight of the overall goal here, which is to build a team that can win an NBA championship. And no, I don't believe my opinion on this, or Carlisle's, Pop's, or anyone's has anything to do with an over reliance on analytics.