03-27-2020, 08:32 AM
(03-26-2020, 10:16 PM)mtrot Wrote: Testing is far from perfect. Data at this point estimates the sensitivity of the available testing may be as low as 70% meaning there are many false negatives.My neighbor, who is a hospital nurse, says they are seeing some false negative results. To the extent that is true, it could mean that more people have contracted the virus, which would in turn mean that the denominator is larger, which would in turn mean that the actual mortality rate is lower. Also, the new serology tests will help clarify how many people have actually contracted the virus. My opinion is that, as the actual mortality rate in the US approaches that of the seasonal flu, momentum will build for at least partially opening back up the economy. As to how soon contact sports could resume, that's a tough question, and may take a lot longer.
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Too much could/might/perhaps/speculation in this. The reality in countries where the outbreak is further ahead seems very different tough. It is way more deadly than the seasonal flu.
Just look at the dead bodies in Italy and Spain. Never happens with the flu. Only the Spanish Flu did this. Look at buildings where only the old are living, they are dying in vast numbers. These are local cases, and not population wise, that illustrates well how it hits the old people.
Another even more thing more important than mortality. Its the infection rate. Nobody is immune. It means everyone will get this if exposed to it. That number is much lower with the flu as there is some herd immunity and spread over many years.
The biggest fear is how much higher the mortality seems to be without treatment in hospital. 90 percent of people in italy die not being able to get to hospital or under way while those that recieve treatment are doing better. That is number reason that everything should be closed in order to not get in situation where hospitals are overloaded. Opening up the country soon is a recipe for major disaster.