(03-24-2020, 11:35 AM)burekemde Wrote:(03-24-2020, 10:53 AM)Dahlsim Wrote:(03-24-2020, 09:56 AM)ClutchDirk Wrote: https://twitter.com/basketballtalk/statu...5075449856
Listening closely to the President and the COVID-19 task force extended press conference yesterday, I can see why the NBA is saying they think they can save the season now.
Its a combination of the latest data on the coronavirus, its impact, mortality severity numbers, age and curve and cycle of 3 months they anticipate.
There's also a willingness to accept some degree of risk in order to move forward.
Barring unexpected shifts or events, I can see this happening.
What are those numbers?
If the hospitals are overloaded, then it means some patients will die because they cant get treatment. In this case, potentially quiet many. The current estimation is around 0.5%-1.0% if everyone is treated well in hospitals that function. And quiet more if not. This seems catastrophic.
Some numbers that they think may predict a 3 month curve with a cycle where the virus peaks and declines. The numbers indicating most children and younger adults are not getting severly ill or hospitalized.
The numbers indicating positive results from behavioral changes among the population, social distancing, hand washing etc.
The numbers showing positive anecdotal results from some treatments, even though nothing is conclusive yet on those.
I'm not validating the numbers here of course, I wouldn't know, simply saying that this is what they were referring to in terms of a predictive timeline.
Cuban and the NBA brass are likely basing their hopes on the same sort of data with the idea that accepting some level of declining virus infections is better than doing nothing.