Tank watch for the last ten days of the season

[mvossman]

Apologies.  That was a combination of being on my first cup of coffee and asking ChatGPT to create the graph for me.  I agree that the top four do appear to be correct.

Tankathon assumes a coin flip winner when it posts odds for the picks after the top four.  But, Chat doesn’t do it that way.  In the tie column, it averaged the odds since the coin flip hasn’t occured yet. I have no idea what it was trying to do in the columns where there isn’t a tie since it averaged those also (some of the time).  Tankathon has two versions of its Pick Odds page (one showing ties and one showing the base odds).   Even Tankathon has different odds for the various picks 6-10 between the two graphs…but, as you say, they aren’t averaged in the tie graph.    

The point of trying to put that all in one place was to make this point.  Where we finish compared to Memphis has an impact on the Top 4 results, but whatever happens is going to happen there no matter the odds (as we saw with a 1.8% chance last year).  The chances of any one pick in the Top four from ending 6th, tied or 7th aren’t the end of the world.

Where the real difference appears to be (and what I wanted to show in a side by side comparison) is what happens in the 6-10 range.  Depending on the coin flip result, being 6th vs 7th has a fairly large impact.  Obviously, 6th is off the table if you are 7th and the odds go way up of moving down to 8th if you start out 7th.  I think we’ll be happy with any of the top four, but who is available at 8th vs 7th might end up being a big deal.

Not to mention there is a legit chance 8th comes into place with a Mavs win.  In that case all the discussion about Acuff, Wagler and Flemings was probably a waste of time.  They will either luck into a top 4 pick or the real discussion will be about Burries, Brown and Philon.