2024 Playoffs- 4th Round: Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks

[audiosway]

The last word from me on this series, prior to game 1, is this:


However, just when I start letting go of the 5-out dream, along comes Boston. They have assembled one of the best 5-out rosters ever, imho. 

This is my last word on this series before game 1 also. I was coming hear to say that and there you are.  

Anyway, I've been thinking a lot about the 5 out system that Rick had running there in Dallas and how Kidd went away from it. I think I know why. I think it's the reason that the Indiana series was closer than Boston probably would have liked.

The problem is that you can't play the level of defense that's needed to win when it gets tight. Stops are harder to come by. It does spread the floor and leave lanes open to the rim.

I think Dallas will be smart to play like they have been. You are correct in saying that Boston has the best 5 out roster we've seen. The problem is the system.

What makes 5 out work for Boston in the regular season and look so incredible from an analytic standpoint is that they drive the lane due to all of that space and it gets those guys a few easy buckets which gets them hitting the 3s. Boston has pulled away from teams late in the 3rd or early in the 4th all year. That's when they start feeling the shots falling and hitting the 3s.

The big con is that it just doesn't allow much movement in 5 out and it tends to stagnate a lot. Everyone is already spread, so, outside of a pick where will the movement come from? They end up running a ton of iso which works great in the regular season against bad teams but becomes more difficult when the playoffs come and teams get more physical and the competition level is much higher. Boston and Dallas were both in the top 3 this year for iso play. However, Dallas runs it slightly different where they are running off of a P&R most of the time which leaves open shooters to pass out to as the defense collapses. Dallas also incorporates a good bit of cutting as well similar to Denver.

That's why when Boston played a team like OKC, Minnesota, Denver, etc it was tougher for them to get going. They weren't that great against WC teams above .500. In fact, they lost both games to Denver. On offense Denver lives out of the P&R and getting guys running downhill kicking out to open shooters. Jokic also is able to find open shooters the way Luka is in creating opportunities through passing.

Another thing with Boston is that they struggle defending the P&R. Physical teams are a problem for Boston. They are also easy to get rebounds on and get behind the defense in transition which Ky and Luka love to do. Also, if KP isn't 100% healthy (and I don't think he is) it's going to open up the paint for Dallas to drive. And they will drive at will.

I think these things I pointed out are the same reason Rick had trouble getting out of the first round in the West after winning the title. They won the title as a P&R heavy physical team with Dirk, Jet, and Kidd driving the paint kicking out to open shooters. They played physical defense and made sure nothing was easy. It wasn't until later that he went to more of the D'antoni 5 out style of play. He almost got out of the first round a couple of times but could never get over the hump.

The East is easier since the bottom half of the playoff field wouldn't even be in the playoffs in the WC.

It's a great system in the regular season to get easy wins but when you are up against opponents that make your shots tough it gets difficult to run. When you are winded from playing against a physical team shots start falling flat. That and you are now getting heavily contested shots while the other team is getting lobs, put backs, and layups.

I am not saying it will be an easy series. It will be right up there with the OKC series I believe. Dallas wins in 6 in my book. But, I don't think the 5 out as a system can win it all. Not against a talented and physical team. Same reason why D'Antoni could never get it done. When you get into the playoffs it becomes all about hard fouls, getting stops, and easier buckets. Teams can use all of their energy because they don't have 80 games left.

Side note: A perfect reason as to why I'm not an analytics guy. WCF series against Minnesota +/- for Luka.
He was ON the floor for 201 minutes and the team had a 114.7 offensive rating.
When he was OFF the floor for 39 minutes the team had a 125 offensive rating.

Analytics say the team was better with Luka OFF the floor. That's just one more reason why I think this series is a mental set up for Boston.