2024 Playoffs- 4th Round: Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks

[audiosway]

I think this is probably true.

Sorry for the bad news, pal! Get well quickly, audio!

Thanks Bud. I'm already starting to feel better. Thankfully the symptoms aren't bad.

I think the Mavs take this in 6. I seriously don't think KP is healthy. He pointed to that today with the press conference. He seemed really hesitant when asked if he was 100%. He is going to struggle against Gafford. It looks like Boston will try cross matching which is going to be interesting. Horford is going to struggle to stay on the floor. Lively is just too active for him and Gafford has too much size on him.

They will start trying to just let White and Jrue guard Luka. That won't last long. That's just going to get Luka going. Ky is going to get booed every time he gets the ball but he'll remain calm. I think that's going to fire Luka up. You guys know how much Luka enjoys taking the road crowd out of the game.

I look for Dallas to run Ky at Jrue constantly as well as try to force Jrue into running the team more on offense. That's going to wear on him.

With KP not being healthy Boston has been the worst team in the playoffs against the P&R. Luka is going to exploit that every time down the court.

The only players on Boston that can guard Luka enough to make him work a little are Tatum and Brown. But, does Boston want to wear down their two offensive stars? No. Jones Jr and PJ will likely guard Tatum and Brown for the most part. Boston will desperately try to switch out of that but I would fight over the screens and not let them do it. I have a feeling that's what Kidd will have them do.

I think another thing that will be huge in this series is that Boston has had such an easy path to the Finals. Yet, they have played down to their competition the entire time. They have had a ton of close games against opponents that were banged up and just weren't great defensively. Coming into this series will be a huge jump in competition and level of fight. Are they ready for that? Can they just flip the switch? History says no.

My final part of this is that Kidd has shown that he gets his team to just stay in the game. That way they don't wear themselves out. When you have the two best closers in the NBA that's all you have to do. Keep it close until closing time. Boston's achilles is late game execution. They don't close well. I think this series will look similar to the OKC series. Keep it close then close them out in the 4th.

I look for them to head back to Dallas 1-1. They will steal a game in Boston. If they take 2 in Boston it will be over in 5. I just think it's more likely that it will go to 6. I also expect Kidd to make this thing ugly. Boston lives and dies by the 3. They can NOT play ugly basketball. It will get ugly early and Dallas will benefit.