2024 Playoffs- 4th Round: Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks

[SleepingHero]

Last time I looked being a good fan didn’t mean overrating your opponent at any cost.  Not you, but several others on here are acting like this Boston team is some all time great. This Boston team most likely would not have won the West.

Boston can win but it’s not because they are great. 

Dallas can win too. But it’s not because sometimes upsets happen or “matchups”. 

The best team will win this series but won’t be an all time great.

Boston is 76-20 so far including regular season and playoffs. Since the merger only 6 teams have reached those marks. 83' 76ers,  86' Celtics, 16' and 17' Warriors, and the 96', and 97' Bulls. That alone puts them in elite conversation. Especially because save the 2016 Warriors, all those teams won the championship.

Boston is as elite as they come statistically. They are great. You are severely underrating them as an opponent. Blind homerism is endearing but doesn't really reflect reality. Nor does it mean you are a bigger Mavs fan. I'd argue surface level fandom usually falls into being blind homerism because those are the fans that can't really add much to the conversation.
 
Moving on.....

I've been so busy this last week at work its been tough to read the whole thread so my apologies if I repeat the same talking points. 

So far in my stat crunching I've been trying to look for trends. Boston did not lose a whole lot but when they did, the one thing that stood out was their 3pt shooting. If they shot 40% from 3, they were 38-1 in the regular season. If they shot below 33% from 3, they were 6-11 (make it 9-12 if you include the playoffs so far). 

Prong #1: Keeping them off the 3pt line and forcing them into tough shots is a huge key. Boston won 3 grueling games that qualified for that below ~33ish% 3pt stat in Indiana, but truthfully Indiana didn't have the right closers. They had the right gameplan, and that's why every game of theirs was close. If the Mavs can force Boston into tough 3s, I trust Kyrie and Luka to finish the game better than Andrew Nembhard and Tyrese Haliburton. But that's a very tall task to ask. The only other game they won shooting that badly was agains the Skeleton Miami Heat with no Jimmy and Roizer. They shot 29% and they still won by 10. The lone loss came from 25 point blowout by the Cavs.


Prong #2: Celtics statistically were better overall when KP was off the court, although their defense was slightly better with him on. When he's on the court the Celtics almost play exclusively in a drop coverage. We're used to watching KP play in such a coverage. It has benefits shrinking the paint but it falls apart when elite offensive players get to their spots with little resistance. Luka's health and ability to attack this should tell us pretty quickly how many minutes KP can play. I was so confident against Zubac that Luka would eat him alive like he did the first 2 times against the Clippers. This year not so much. If Luka can play KP off the court by relentlessly attacking him, Boston will be forced to run with Horford way more. That is huge. Celtics have been very cagey on KP's health too. I don't see why he wouldn't be good to go after having almost 2 months off from a calf strain, but it is Porzingis we're talking about here. If KP isn't ready to go then the Celtics have to rely on Horford to deal with Gafford+Lively for 48 minutes and that is a very tall order. 


Prong #3: Boston had the least amount of doubles on opponents so far this post season. Only have doubled 1% of their defensive possessions. Could be argued that they haven't had to double, but something to keep in mind. If Boston chooses to play Luka and Kyrie straight up then all the pressure really falls onto PJ and DJJ. I assume that Boston are going to key in on Luka's late passes to the corner. Staying attached and not doubling basically takes away that look. It forces Luka to be an iso scorer even more than usual and stagnates the offense. If DJJ and PJ are hitting their shots then Boston will be punished quite quickly and will all but make them send extra help.  Again that's a rough thing to ask for these dudes to do given the environment and situation. If they can't score then the Mavs will have to start forcing the tempo and get into transition as much as possible. 


Prong #4: Unfortunately Boston enjoys that style of play. They are very much like Minnesota where their defense allows them to get easy transition buckets. Limiting turnovers and making sure possessions end on a single attempt will signficantly hurt Boston's momentum. It is key that Lively+Gafford+Maxi+PJ  are ready to box out and make sure Boston can't get rhythm shots off of long rebounds. Luka and Kyrie will have to do everything they can to limit turnovers. 


So far this is my read. I need to listen to more Celtic podcasts to see what they are thinking. Overall this is the toughest test yet for the Mavs. Boston is basically all the terrifying aspects of Minnesota but more talented 1-5. 

As always though I'm biased. If Luka does Luka things and Kyrie catches fire, Boston is in trouble. Mavs in 6.