06-03-2024, 04:54 PM
Been catching up on this thread. Some great points made and questions posed throughout. A few of my scatterbrained thoughts, with SERIOUS small sample size alerts on some of this stuff.
- Regarding trying to draw anything from the one game vs Celtics post deadline moves:
That 6 game stretch was a defensive mess from the Mavs. During that 1-5 stretch, the Mavs defensive rating was 127.3! The worst defensive team rating for the season was 119.6 by the Jazz. The Mavs allowed opponents to shoot 97/230 (42.17%) from three during that stretch. That goes up to 86/193 (44.56%) if you remove the 76ers 11/37 effort. Again, the Jazz were the worst in the league here, allowing opponents to shoot 39.5% from three on the season. For those 6 games, the Mavs looked like not just the worst defense in the NBA this season but maybe the worst defense of all time. That's my take away from that game. It was part of a horrific 6 game stretch that was needed for this team to figure things out. As we all know, they responded with an NBA best 106 defensive rating during their 16-2 run from March 7 to April 10!
- Regarding KP and Horford as shooters:
Someone already mentioned the big man shooters Chet and KAT and what they did (or didn't do) against the Mavs. Chet went from a 37% 3pt shooter to a 22% 3pt shooter. KAT went from a 42% 3pt shooter to a 24% 3pt shooter. These two guys were the biggest drivers of both teams (and their fans) comments about them just missing shots they normally make. Sure they missed some shots but they also had to deal with PJ quite a bit, especially KAT. The biggest difference with chasing shooters this series is that PJ is surely going to spend most of his time on Tatum/Brown, and there isn't a true non-shooter on the floor. Gafford/Lively/Maxi have to be big time on the defensive end and getting to the glass. This is a really tough draw for Gafford defensively but I think you just have to feel out every game and see if Horford/KP are hitting from deep. Horford is 21-63 from deep in the last two series where his volume of 3PA per game has gone from 3 to 7. He has exploded in two games (Cavs Game 5, Pacers Game 3) and gone a combined 13-25 in those two games. In the other 7 games of rounds 2 and 3 Horford is 8-38, good for 21% from 3.
Horford is the one I'm focusing on here because he plays like a straight up stretch big. In the regular season, 61.5% of his FGAs were 3's. That's climbed even higher in the postseason with 69% of his FGAs from 3. KP took 39% of his FGAs from 3 during the regular season. Hard to look at the 4 games he played against Miami and draw anything, but just for fun he took 55.5% of his FGAs from deep in those 4 games. KP doesn't want to just stand in the corner and hoist 3's...RICK!
The KP/Horford vs Lively/Gafford/Maxi matchup is one of the most intriguing to me. I am also interested to see if Kidd sees the value of making KP work against PJ some and the hell that can be. This would have to come from a PJ/Maxi front court with Maxi taking some Tatum duty to free up PJ.
Regarding the Celtics having 4 guys that can check Luka:
Lu Dort shot 44% from the field and 40% from 3 during the regular season. Lu Dort shot 47% from the field and 52% from 3 during the first round. Then Lu Dort had to defend a hobbled Luka for 6 games. Lu Dort shot 31% from the field and 32% from 3 while dealing with Luka on the other end. You damn well better give multiple guys the Luka assignment, because if you task one dude with it you are going to feel it on the other end.
The thing about Luka is he is eventually going to figure our whoever and whatever you throw at him. It was actually Kyle Anderson in Game 4 that made Luka look the most uncomfortable. Of course he had that all figured out by Game 5 and went Luklear before they could get to Anderson anyway.
I don't think the Celtics want Tatum on Luka for any extended period of time. I don't think White is strong enough, but he could definitely be effective in spurts. I think it comes down to Jrue and Brown. The Celtics would love to stick White on Kyrie and Jrue on Luka and have that work well enough. That's the first battle to win.
- Regarding trying to draw anything from the one game vs Celtics post deadline moves:
That 6 game stretch was a defensive mess from the Mavs. During that 1-5 stretch, the Mavs defensive rating was 127.3! The worst defensive team rating for the season was 119.6 by the Jazz. The Mavs allowed opponents to shoot 97/230 (42.17%) from three during that stretch. That goes up to 86/193 (44.56%) if you remove the 76ers 11/37 effort. Again, the Jazz were the worst in the league here, allowing opponents to shoot 39.5% from three on the season. For those 6 games, the Mavs looked like not just the worst defense in the NBA this season but maybe the worst defense of all time. That's my take away from that game. It was part of a horrific 6 game stretch that was needed for this team to figure things out. As we all know, they responded with an NBA best 106 defensive rating during their 16-2 run from March 7 to April 10!
- Regarding KP and Horford as shooters:
Someone already mentioned the big man shooters Chet and KAT and what they did (or didn't do) against the Mavs. Chet went from a 37% 3pt shooter to a 22% 3pt shooter. KAT went from a 42% 3pt shooter to a 24% 3pt shooter. These two guys were the biggest drivers of both teams (and their fans) comments about them just missing shots they normally make. Sure they missed some shots but they also had to deal with PJ quite a bit, especially KAT. The biggest difference with chasing shooters this series is that PJ is surely going to spend most of his time on Tatum/Brown, and there isn't a true non-shooter on the floor. Gafford/Lively/Maxi have to be big time on the defensive end and getting to the glass. This is a really tough draw for Gafford defensively but I think you just have to feel out every game and see if Horford/KP are hitting from deep. Horford is 21-63 from deep in the last two series where his volume of 3PA per game has gone from 3 to 7. He has exploded in two games (Cavs Game 5, Pacers Game 3) and gone a combined 13-25 in those two games. In the other 7 games of rounds 2 and 3 Horford is 8-38, good for 21% from 3.
Horford is the one I'm focusing on here because he plays like a straight up stretch big. In the regular season, 61.5% of his FGAs were 3's. That's climbed even higher in the postseason with 69% of his FGAs from 3. KP took 39% of his FGAs from 3 during the regular season. Hard to look at the 4 games he played against Miami and draw anything, but just for fun he took 55.5% of his FGAs from deep in those 4 games. KP doesn't want to just stand in the corner and hoist 3's...RICK!
The KP/Horford vs Lively/Gafford/Maxi matchup is one of the most intriguing to me. I am also interested to see if Kidd sees the value of making KP work against PJ some and the hell that can be. This would have to come from a PJ/Maxi front court with Maxi taking some Tatum duty to free up PJ.
Regarding the Celtics having 4 guys that can check Luka:
Lu Dort shot 44% from the field and 40% from 3 during the regular season. Lu Dort shot 47% from the field and 52% from 3 during the first round. Then Lu Dort had to defend a hobbled Luka for 6 games. Lu Dort shot 31% from the field and 32% from 3 while dealing with Luka on the other end. You damn well better give multiple guys the Luka assignment, because if you task one dude with it you are going to feel it on the other end.
The thing about Luka is he is eventually going to figure our whoever and whatever you throw at him. It was actually Kyle Anderson in Game 4 that made Luka look the most uncomfortable. Of course he had that all figured out by Game 5 and went Luklear before they could get to Anderson anyway.
I don't think the Celtics want Tatum on Luka for any extended period of time. I don't think White is strong enough, but he could definitely be effective in spurts. I think it comes down to Jrue and Brown. The Celtics would love to stick White on Kyrie and Jrue on Luka and have that work well enough. That's the first battle to win.
![[-]](https://www.mavsboard.com/images/collapse.png)