2024 Playoffs- 4th Round: Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks

[DallasMaverick]

I've been thinking a ton about this series. To me, it's the toughest to predict yet. There's a healthy fear of every playoff opponent in the heart of every (smart) fan, I think, but I never really thought Minnesota was actually a huge threat. Ditto for OKC. Minnesota is just majorly flawed to me, and as impressive as Edwards was in the first two rounds, I just couldn't imagine a 22 year old getting his team to the finals. In the OKC series, SGA was everything they've been saying his is all season (he's ready, obviously), but it was clear that the rest of that squad has an abundance of learning to do before they're legit contenders, imho. To be frank, I think getting past the Clippers, Kawhi or no, might be the biggest thing the Mavs have achieved in this post season, so far. especially given that Luka was nowhere near himself in that series. Looking back, that might have been a blessing in disguise, because it's clear to me that he's trusting his teammates more as this postseason goes on, and why wouldn't he? They have answered the bell each and every time they were called upon. 

As I see it, THIS Boston series will be similar to the OKC series in terms of great, spread out spacing, only with a few significant differences: 

1) The most glaring difference is that all of Boston's top 7 are offensive threats. There are no Josh Giddeys. That's huge, because in EVERY series so far, the Mavs' defense has won by choosing the right opposing player to ignore. On paper, at least, there isn't really a guy who doesn't have to be guarded in the Boston rotation. That means, I think, a little more emphasis on one-on-one perimeter defense, and that very likely won't be limited to DJJ and/or PJ. 

2) There's no SGA. Tatum isn't nearly as dangerous as an offensive initiator as SGA, and that can work in the Mavs' favor, because I get the sense at times that even the Celtics aren't sure where their offense is going to come from. In other words, the deferential nature of all those offensive "equals" (not in quality, but in initiation competence) can sometimes lead to indecision, even against inferior defenses like IND's. HOWEVER, it might also work against the Mavs, because again, whomever Luka and/or Kyrie are guarding WILL be able to set ball screens at worst, and it's likely that they will frequently be guys who are comfortable facing up with a live dribble, creating shots, making the right pass, etc. This is pretty scary, imo. 

3) Gafford and Lively will probably KILL the Celtics inside. If they can't, this is going to be a short series, so let's not even consider that possibility (I'm confident they can). So, which agenda will be imposed first, and more effectively? Will the offensive rebounding and lob threats of the Dallas bigs cause more problems for Boston, or will the Boston spacing cause more problems for the Dallas bigs? That's the series, imo. 

I expect that Dallas will probably ATTEMPT to ignore a Boston player, as they have done consistently since the all star break, basically. We'll know who they choose for this right away, because it will be the guy Gafford is guarding to start Game 1. My guess is that Porzingis will be the first target, because it's easier to handle than cross matching, and because KP will probably (hopefully) be rusty. Expect a ton of pick and pop from KP to start the series. 

If Porzingis is hitting those shots, or even WHEN he starts hitting them (the dream is that Dallas can get away this for a while, even if it's just for a game or two), I expect the first adjustment to be applying the same strategy to Jrue Holiday. Kidd has actually tried this tactic recently against Boston. They'll put Gafford on Holiday, Washington on Porzingis and hope they can keep Gafford in the paint by conceding some decent to good looks to Holiday. If things reach this point, I'm not as hopeful as I am about leaving Porzingis open, so I think this will be a sign that it's just not Gafford's series. Hopefully, it doesn't come to this, or, maybe a more realistic hope is that it takes a game or two before it reaches this point. 

Lively, unlike Gafford, can do OK in space, so the move then will be start him, maybe. Great, right? Only...even if using him on switches is successful (it would be a mixed bag, I think) this is STILL in Boston's favor, because he wouldn't be in the paint. That means less room for error for perimeter defenders (Luka and Kyrie included) and way less dominance on the DEFENSIVE glass. It is encouraging, however, that Lively CAN play through this entire series. I'm pretty confident of that, and that at least means the hard rim rolling is something that Dallas can count on, and I don't know that I believe Porzingis or Horford will have any answer for that. They both play a lot of drop, just like Minnesota. 

The chess move Kidd has in his bag is this: benching Gafford completely and rotate between Lively/Kleber. That would allow for much, much more switching, and probably above average switching by league standards. I'm 100% positive he/they are hoping Gafford can find a way to hang on defense, because he's going to KILL IT on offense, just like Lively. 

And then, there's "Dallas has Luka and Kyrie. Boston doesn't." Call me crazy, but I'm not a huge fan of Tatum or Brown. I think when it comes to offensive creation, the Mavs actually have the TWO best players in the series. Boston might be the league's most focused and devout believers in "attack mismatches and the other team's weak link," so expect Luka and Kyrie to have to defend MUCH, MUCH more than they did in the last series, ESPECIALLY if my first two points don't work out in the Mavs' favor, but...if that doesn't work well enough on a PPP level for Boston, I honestly don't think they know where the ball needs to go, offensively. 

This will be a fascinating series. 

I am a Mavs fan, and I just feel like Luka is a killer and Kyrie is a killer with baggage against Boston. I'm picking the Mavs in 6.

I’m wondering if Dallas will feel compelled to draw Porzingis away from defending the rim. As long as Gafford or Lively is in, Porzingis can lurk and help on D.

Maxi changes that.

Maybe the Zinger isn’t enough of a defensive presence to warrant this strategy. I have visions of Dame repeatedly going around him for layups.

Maybe the Mavs can accomplish the same thing just by the high PnR with Gafford and Lively.