2024 Playoffs- 4th Round: Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks

[dirkfansince1998]

I've been thinking a ton about this series. To me, it's the toughest to predict yet. There's a healthy fear of every playoff opponent in the heart of every (smart) fan, I think, but I never really thought Minnesota was actually a huge threat. Ditto for OKC. Minnesota is just majorly flawed to me, and as impressive as Edwards was in the first two rounds, I just couldn't imagine a 22 year old getting his team to the finals. In the OKC series, SGA was everything they've been saying his is all season (he's ready, obviously), but it was clear that the rest of that squad has an abundance of learning to do before they're legit contenders, imho. To be frank, I think getting past the Clippers, Kawhi or no, might be the biggest thing the Mavs have achieved in this post season, so far. especially given that Luka was nowhere near himself in that series. Looking back, that might have been a blessing in disguise, because it's clear to me that he's trusting his teammates more as this postseason goes on, and why wouldn't he? They have answered the bell each and every time they were called upon. 

As I see it, THIS Boston series will be similar to the OKC series in terms of great, spread out spacing, only with a few significant differences: 

1) The most glaring difference is that all of Boston's top 7 are offensive threats. There are no Josh Giddeys. That's huge, because in EVERY series so far, the Mavs' defense has won by choosing the right opposing player to ignore. On paper, at least, there isn't really a guy who doesn't have to be guarded in the Boston rotation. That means, I think, a little more emphasis on one-on-one perimeter defense, and that very likely won't be limited to DJJ and/or PJ. 

2) There's no SGA. Tatum isn't nearly as dangerous as an offensive initiator as SGA, and that can work in the Mavs' favor, because I get the sense at times that even the Celtics aren't sure where their offense is going to come from. In other words, the deferential nature of all those offensive "equals" (not in quality, but in initiation competence) can sometimes lead to indecision, even against inferior defenses like IND's. HOWEVER, it might also work against the Mavs, because again, whomever Luka and/or Kyrie are guarding WILL be able to set ball screens at worst, and it's likely that they will frequently be guys who are comfortable facing up with a live dribble, creating shots, making the right pass, etc. This is pretty scary, imo. 

3) Gafford and Lively will probably KILL the Celtics inside. If they can't, this is going to be a short series, so let's not even consider that possibility (I'm confident they can). So, which agenda will be imposed first, and more effectively? Will the offensive rebounding and lob threats of the Dallas bigs cause more problems for Boston, or will the Boston spacing cause more problems for the Dallas bigs? That's the series, imo. 

I expect that Dallas will probably ATTEMPT to ignore a Boston player, as they have done consistently since the all star break, basically. We'll know who they choose for this right away, because it will be the guy Gafford is guarding to start Game 1. My guess is that Porzingis will be the first target, because it's easier to handle than cross matching, and because KP will probably (hopefully) be rusty. Expect a ton of pick and pop from KP to start the series. 

If Porzingis is hitting those shots, or even WHEN he starts hitting them (the dream is that Dallas can get away this for a while, even if it's just for a game or two), I expect the first adjustment to be applying the same strategy to Jrue Holiday. Kidd has actually tried this tactic recently against Boston. They'll put Gafford on Holiday, Washington on Porzingis and hope they can keep Gafford in the paint by conceding some decent to good looks to Holiday. If things reach this point, I'm not as hopeful as I am about leaving Porzingis open, so I think this will be a sign that it's just not Gafford's series. Hopefully, it doesn't come to this, or, maybe a more realistic hope is that it takes a game or two before it reaches this point. 

Lively, unlike Gafford, can do OK in space, so the move then will be start him, maybe. Great, right? Only...even if using him on switches is successful (it would be a mixed bag, I think) this is STILL in Boston's favor, because he wouldn't be in the paint. That means less room for error for perimeter defenders (Luka and Kyrie included) and way less dominance on the DEFENSIVE glass. It is encouraging, however, that Lively CAN play through this entire series. I'm pretty confident of that, and that at least means the hard rim rolling is something that Dallas can count on, and I don't know that I believe Porzingis or Horford will have any answer for that. They both play a lot of drop, just like Minnesota. 

The chess move Kidd has in his bag is this: benching Gafford completely and rotate between Lively/Kleber. That would allow for much, much more switching, and probably above average switching by league standards. I'm 100% positive he/they are hoping Gafford can find a way to hang on defense, because he's going to KILL IT on offense, just like Lively. 

And then, there's "Dallas has Luka and Kyrie. Boston doesn't." Call me crazy, but I'm not a huge fan of Tatum or Brown. I think when it comes to offensive creation, the Mavs actually have the TWO best players in the series. Boston might be the league's most focused and devout believers in "attack mismatches and the other team's weak link," so expect Luka and Kyrie to have to defend MUCH, MUCH more than they did in the last series, ESPECIALLY if my first two points don't work out in the Mavs' favor, but...if that doesn't work well enough on a PPP level for Boston, I honestly don't think they know where the ball needs to go, offensively. 

This will be a fascinating series. 

I am a Mavs fan, and I just feel like Luka is a killer and Kyrie is a killer with baggage against Boston. I'm picking the Mavs in 6.

I think you nailed some of the key matchups. And that is what this comes down to. Boston has more talent. Some would argue that the Wolves had more individual talent than the Mavs (regular season accolades would suggest it). But it doesn't matter when the talent is limited to a certain style of basketball. The best defense in the league that dominated last years champion. With size and twin tower lineups that defended the post and protect the rim. But against a team like Dallas that forced them to defend the perimeter and exploited their bigs their biggest strengths turned into liabilities.

Looking at the Mavs - Celtics matchup. You already mentioned the bigs. Can KP and Horford play the Mavs rim protection off the floor and force the Mavs to abandon their defensive scheme. Or can Lively and Gafford punish the Celtics in the paint and force them to play bigger lineups with less perimeter scorers.

Another interesting aspect. And this one isn't favoring the Mavs. The Celtics might be the only team in the league that can get away with 1v1 defense vs Luka for an entire game/series. If Luka cannot force the double team the Mavs are in trouble. Mavs need the best version of Luka. Especially when it comes to his shooting.
There is no easy matchup to exploit if the Celtics can keep their bigs out of the pick and roll. And even though the Mavs aren't the same team that we saw in the regular season matchups vs Boston it should be mentioned that the Celtics did an incredible job with preswitches. Brown on the ball and Holiday switching onto the big to defend the pick and roll.

Wolves were build to defeat the Nuggets. Mavs had all the mismatch advantages against the Wolves. I think Boston starts the series with all the tools to make things really hard for the Mavs.
Despite all that I still feel pretty good about the series. Feels like the current Mavs have another gear that allows them to match the level of play of any given opponent. Different players stepping up each game/series to even the odds or change the dynamics of the series.