2024 Playoffs- 4th Round: Boston Celtics - Dallas Mavericks

[Winter]

TBH I actually think a lot hinges on what types of strategies the Celtics use. I think the talent level difference is significant, absolutely enough to even out the advantage having the best player in the series has. There were a lot of things defensively that IMO the Wolves could have done to make the series much closer than it was. Despite their stars underperforming, Finch did not coach that team or make the quick and necessary adjustments well whatsoever. The Celtics making great consistent adjustments in combination with their superior overall talent could make all the difference. If they don't, Luka will dissect them and we will have a great opportunity to capitalize. I think this series will look at lot more like the OKC series but with a much more difficult time defending their offense. That also means PJ and DJJ will have to show up again.

I think this last sentence has a good deal of truth to it. Boston has five 2-way players that have to be guarded. Of the ten best players in the two team starting lineups, DJJ and PJ would likely be 9th and 10th. Those two are very good players, but there's a good case that the entire starting cast of Boston has better overall players. The Mavs won't be able to load up defensively on specific Boston players like we did with Minnesota. There are no Andersons we can ignore, or Gorbets we can manipulate.

Personally, I think Boston should win based on the personnel and I understand why Vegas sees it that way. What is more difficult to predict is Luka's uncanny ability to manage the half-court game, and the team chemistry this team has created. The chemistry (the huddles, talks of trust, practice vibes) is frankly more noticeable with the Mavs and is probably not measurable. The Mavs are capable of bringing more energy, and Luka is far and away the best player on either team. Tatum has had stretches where he's disappeared, and the team play has been lackadaisical.

The other thing is that there is an inordinate amount of pressure on Boston to win it all. The fan base has been expecting it and the Eastern Conference could really change next year if NY is healthy, and Indiana has another year to mature. By contrast, I doubt the Mavs fan base would feel the same level of defeat since no one really expected them here during mid-season, and almost all of our players are young and under contract for awhile. Boston will be feeling a lot more pressure.