Trade & FA 2023-24: Lavine Market Barely There| NOP Want Trae or Murray

[DanSchwartzgan]

HARD CAP MATH - To use the bigger MLE at all, you can't go over $179M Apron 1, no matter what, so a team has to leave a cushion. Let's pencil in a limit of $178M.

Without counting Lawson, the Mavs already have 12 players at $173.537M. That includes Kyrie's incentives, all of which count on Hard Cap Math. They have to have at least 14 players (and likely prefer 15). DJJ fills one of those empty slots. Hard cap math says each minimum salary will cost AT LEAST $2.094M this year (there are minor exceptions to that number, but Mavs are extremely unlikely to be able to do one like that.). So that leaves 2 empty slots (Lawson can fill one of those slots if you wish) and 2 minimum salary players will cost at least $4.188M.

That puts the Mavs right now at $177.724M. At that number, you can either spend the taxpayer MLE of $5.2M (and go past Apron 1 with no barrier), or spend NT MLE but you only have spending room under the Hard Cap of about $0.276M right now.

If you trade THJ (either alone, or in a package), and the other team needs to salary match to do the deal, the biggest spread allowed is $7.5M, which then offers room for an increased NT MLE of $7.776M.

If you SW THJ, there's the cost of the dead salary and the cost of refilling that salary slot, so you gain $8.702M and now have the ability to spend a NT MLE of about $9M.

To get a bigger NT MLE via a trade of THJ (or anyone else), you have to find a team with cap room who won't have to salary match, and who will use some of their cap room to take THJ.

Everything gets easier if DJJ would take the $5.2M TxMLE, because then there's no hard cap until you get up to Apron 2 (about $190M).

Thanks for this.  I need to somehow pin this location in my mind for future reference (Top of page 554, Top of page 554).

I was a little concerned DJJ might play himself past our ability to easily retain.  Of course, the post season isn’t over yet and short of a championship the season will end with disappointment and that disappointment will likely be directed at someone or a few someones who didn’t quite get it done.  So, TP MLE could still end up being in play.

Also, it takes a certain type of team to invest a full MLE contract in someone like DJJ.  Those types of teams who need that very specific role don’t tend to have money or space or the exception necessary under the current rules.  So, time will tell.  I appreciated the Moneyball article that painted some hope for retaining him from recent past examples (BTW, how smart does the Indy FO look for they way they creatively handled the Turner extension and structured the Bruce Brown deal as something that could be used as matching salary in a bigger deal without giving up anything core).

As to reacting to some of what I’ve read here.  I think it was Knutson who pointed out that trading THJ in the offseason is throwing away an asset that can be better used later.  I agree.  His expiring contract and a pick at the TDL is likely to be much more valuable than it is this summer.

Another thing I’m struggling with in some of the proposals that ship out THJ for air is we are making a trade to stand still (retain Jones).  Teams in our position tend to use outgoing assets to upgrade somewhere, not stand still.  It feels like THJ and something should be used to maximize the roster as opposed to creating space to just keep DJJ.